Tag: war

The inevitable result of the “Arab Spring”

Perhaps, my dear anklebiters, you may recall when you said I had no idea what I was talking about when I scoffed at the idea that the “Arab Spring” would lead to that vision of shiny secular democracy that is dying in the West and will never exist in the Middle East. After all, weren’t there STUDENT LEADERS speaking ENGLISH to CNN reporters? Surely the ability of two or three twenty-somethings to appear presentable on camera must have been a reliable indicator of their political power in Egypt! And I’m sure you haven’t forgotten all your pooh-poohing of the idea that democracy would lead directly to rule by religious fundamentalist parties:

The party formed by the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s mainstream Islamist group, appeared to have taken about 40 percent of the vote, as expected. But a big surprise was the strong showing of ultraconservative Islamists, called Salafis, many of whom see most popular entertainment as sinful and reject women’s participation in voting or public life.

Analysts in the state-run news media said early returns indicated that Salafi groups could take as much as a quarter of the vote, giving the two groups of Islamists combined control of nearly 65 percent of the parliamentary seats.

Quelle surprise! The entire point of establishing the various kings and military dictatorships at the end of the European colonial era was to avoid popular governments and thereby prevent the revival of violent Islamic expansion. And I have no sympathy for the neocons, particularly the Jewish ones who loudly advocated democratic revolution in the Arab world and will soon be shrieking about how their precious Israel is now increasingly threatened by the democratic governments they helped establish.

The neocons have clearly already made geo-politics much more unstable with their unrestrained interventionist strategery. I suggest they all shut the hell up and simply watch as the Arabs, Israelis, and Americans go about pursuing their national interests without the “benefit” of advice from the idiot interventionist lobby.

Democracy is not, and has never been, an intrinsic good in and of itself. It is not freedom. It is not liberty. And very often, it is a very good way of ensuring that human freedom and liberty are repressed.

It’s all fun and games

It’s all fun and games being a neocon, invading other countries, and spreading world democratic revolution, right up until the moment that someone accidentally pokes a nuclear power in the eye with “collateral damage”. If “well, we didn’t mean it” doesn’t work for kids, it’s probably not going to work for nations either:

NATO helicopters and fighter jets attacked two military outposts in northwest Pakistan on Saturday, killing as many as 28 troops and plunging U.S.-Pakistan relations, already deeply frayed, further into crisis.

Pakistan retaliated by shutting down vital NATO supply routes into Afghanistan, used for sending in just under a third of the alliance’s supplies.

Pakistan should cease all cooperation with the US military. Why should they tolerate the US killing Pakistani soldiers in Pakistan any more than we would tolerate the Pakistani military killing American soldiers in the USA?

Times must be bad

It appears Obama may be considering the time-honored strategem of attempting to distract the populace with fireworks during a time of economic difficulty.

Yesterday we reported that the Arab League (with European and US support) are preparing to institute a no fly zone over Syria. Today, we get an escalation which confirms we may be on the edge. Just out from CBS: “The U.S. Embassy in Damascus urged its citizens in Syria to depart “immediately,” and Turkey’s foreign ministry urged Turkish pilgrims to opt for flights to return home from Saudi Arabia to avoid traveling through Syria.” But probably the most damning evidence that the “western world” is about to do the unthinkable and invade Syria, and in the process force Iran to retaliate, is the weekly naval update from Stratfor, which always has some very interesting if always controversial view on geopolitics, where we find that for the first time in many months, CVN 77 George H.W. Bush has left its traditional theater of operations just off the Straits of Hormuz, a critical choke point, where it traditionally accompanies the Stennis, and has parked… right next to Syria.

Apparently the Libyan affair ended too quickly and neither Yemen nor Uganda ever really heated up enough to crack the front page. One wonders what sort of vital American interest is supposed to be at stake in Syria. And I’m curious where all the Syrian immigrants will be settled, Nebraska or Idaho?

Mailvox: the dangerous Ron Paul

The cognitive dissonance at work in N’s email, written in response to yesterday’s column, is remarkable:

I like Ron Paul but I don’t like him closing all our bases around the world and bringing our army back home. This isolationist view is DANGEROUS and will only empower and embolden our enemies and actually bring us closer to WORLD WAR, this time right at our DOORSTEPS!

Is that what you want???

If Reagan said America was that “shining city on the hill”, dimming it around the world with an isolationist view will only make stronger the darkness of this world. We need to keep shining that light shining everywhere, bud. The cost of peace ain’t cheap, but war is a hell of a lot more expensive!

Yes, that is precisely what I want. All military bases closed, all American troops back in the USA. To argue otherwise is indicative of a shockingly stupid perspective which is not only illogical, but blatantly ignores both the historical record and the observable reality of present U.S. foreign policy.

First, the argument about “the cost of peace” is a non-starter. America is presently engaged in military operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Iran. (Don’t kid yourself, there are already CIA and most likely special forces in Iran right now.) It may still be active in Libya. That is hardly peace.

Second, the USA is bankrupt. It can’t afford ANY military operations at all. Thanks to the expected failure of the Congressional supercommittee, automatic defense cuts must be made. As the global economic contraction continues, the U.S. military will have to shrink.

Third, it is American military operations that have not only brought enemies to our DOORSTEPS, but have brought them into the country. The Saudis who attacked the Two Towers on 9/11 were angry about the U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia and were “studying” in the United States. There are far more Somalis in the USA than there were before U.S. troops invaded Somalia and more Iraqis than before U.S. troops invaded Iraq.

Isolation is not dangerous. American strength and wealth waxed during its isolationist period and has declined steadily ever since, just as both the Roman and British empires declined once they started attempting to police the world. As I wrote in the column, the irony is that the one Republican presidential candidate whose policies would strengthen the American military and best protect American interests is constantly attacked by stupid and ignorant Republicans who wrongly believe that the more troop deployments that take place, the stronger the nation is.

No wonder they also fall for the Neo-Keynesian argument that the more money you spend, the wealthier you become.

Mailvox: is God on our side?

JH wonders:

I have read your coloumn faithfully for years, and have come to admire your level-headed and logical approach to the problems you present.

I have a question. Most social conservatives declare that life begins at conception, thus concluding that all abortions are murder. If you take this stand then you must conclude that America has the blood of 50 million innocent lives on her hands.

What right do we have then to drop bombs on ” ragheads and goat herders ‘ and the like if this is so, and how can we possibly think that God will bless our troops in foreign wars when we can’t possibly be on HIS side?

It is so. And America has no more right to bomb the goat herders of the Middle East than Rome had to invade Pontus, Armenia, and Parthia. Nor does America have any better reason to believe that God will bless their invading troops than the Romans or the National Socialist-era Germans did. Gott war nicht mit der Wehrmacht, their belt buckles notwithstanding, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that a nation whose government increasingly denies and rejects God, a nation that has slaughtered more of its own children behind closed clinic doors than the Moloch-worshipping Canaanites ever threw into the fires, enjoys divine favor.

America was founded on predominantly Christian principles, but she no longer lives by them. She is profligate, gluttonous, murderous, and repressive. She can no longer be reasonably described as either the land of the free or the home of the brave, but rather the land of the fat and the home of the indebted. I concluded some time ago that America was already finished in the historical sense, but it may take some time for most Americans to realize it or for America’s foreign policy to reflect that reality. This is entirely normal, few Britons understood that their empire was in decline until the sun had already set upon it.

It would, of course, be deeply ironic if the neocons were to get their way and America were to eventually learn of her loss of global superpower status not too terribly far from where Marcus Licinius Crassus lost his seven legions and met his death at the hands of the Parthians. Interestingly enough, Crassus, rather like Bush and Obama, failed to abide by the legal forms of making war before launching his ill-fated invasion.

Fuck the Police

Thus sayeth the United States Marine Corps after the Oakland police attack on Marine veteran Scott Olsen:

As God is my witness. I will fight tooth and nail to restore the decency this country was founded upon. The politicians, banks and large corporations have ruined this country. I find it difficult to notice any sense of politeness on the streets anymore. But it goes farther. As a Marine and a citizen I am outraged. I am sick to death of the world my children are being raised in.

So I ask all of you, can you too sense the tipping point? When will enough be enough? If not now, when? I feel the problem is that the average Joe citizen is ignorant and comfortable. These, in addition to selfishness have become the standard for the majority of the population. As long as people are comfortable they remain silent. Well, I’m really fucking uncomfortable and I’m sick of seeing this sort of shit happening. The Occupy protests that are going on are our first glimmer of hope. If we can take this and move it further, get every lazy ass off their rocker and open their eyes; then maybe, just maybe we have a chance.

Semper Fi brothers, and remember who you are. Protectors of a great nation, not politicians or wealthy money grubbing bankers and the like. When it comes time, I know we’ll stand strong.

So, the Washington-Wall Street Axis of Corruption have the police, the media, and the Mexican gangs to whom they are selling guns and with whom they are laundering drug money. We the People only have the angry veterans of the USMC on their side.

I like their odds.

The U.S. Constitution is to be defended against ALL enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC. And there isn’t much question about who the domestic enemies of the Constitution are.

Arab Spring in Libya

Once again, the neocons have supported the expansion of popular and democratic Islam:

Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, the chairman of the National Transitional Council and de fact president, had already declared that Libyan laws in future would have Sharia, the Islamic code, as its “basic source”….

Mr Abdul-Jalil went further, specifically lifting immediately, by decree, one law from Col. Gaddafi’s era that he said was in conflict with Sharia – that banning polygamy. In a blow to those who hoped to see Libya’s economy integrate further into the western world, he announced that in future bank regulations would ban the charging of interest, in line with Sharia. “Interest creates disease and hatred among people,” he said.

So, how is this in the American national interest, exactly? And actually, if you think about it, what is the real difference between formally banning interest, as Abdul-Jalil has directed, and reducing the interest rate to zero, as Bernanke, King and Trichet have done.

Obama gets it done

Give credit where credit is due. Obama is pulling the troops out of Iraq and leaving no US bases there:

President Obama announced Friday that the United States will withdraw nearly all troops from Iraq by the end of the year, effectively bringing the long and polarizing war in Iraq to an end.

“After nearly 9 years, America’s war in Iraq will be over,” said Mr. Obama. He said the last American troops will depart the country by January 1 “with their heads held high, proud of their success, and knowing that the American people stand united in our support for our troops.”

It would seem there is a silver lining in every failed presidency. And notice how the “Tea Party” candidate, Michele Bachmann, actually opposes the pullout. Because foreign occupations are so eminently consistent with small and frugal government.

Incompetence and the art of war

The Obama administration offers a lesson in how not to do it. First, we have the strategic incompetence with the new invasion of Uganda, which marks the Nobel Peace Prize winner’s sixth war in three years. At this rate, if he somehow manages to win reelection, the USA will be fighting 16 wars by the end of his second term.

Offhand, what do you think the dumbest damn place in the world to deploy US troops would be? Why guess? Just watch Obama. Our modern Clausewitz has picked the absolute craziest, most futile, most counterproductive place in the world, central Africa…. Whenever we invade some godforsaken place, we always end up with thousands of new immigrants from that place. Check out Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia, for example. So I suppose this idiotic invasion will, sort of, benefit these new refugee-immigrants which the welfare establishment is already smacking its lips over. So if you think that what this country needs is some more immigrants from central Africa, cheer Obama on!

But it’s not enough that the Commander-in-Chief is strategically challenged, the forces he has at his disposal are tactically given to literally shooting themselves in the foot.

A Marine and a Navy medic killed by a U.S. drone airstrike were targeted when Marine commanders in Afghanistan mistook them for Taliban fighters, even though analysts watching the Predator’s video feed were uncertain whether the men were part of an enemy force.

Now, if one considers how much collateral damage has taken place thanks to no-knock raids in the War on Drugs, imagine how badly awry things are likely to go once Hellfire-equipped Predators are ordered to patrol American skies. I wonder how long it will be before these trends come together and the first Ugandan “refugee” is accidentally killed by a Predator intending to attack domestic terrorists in the United States.

Game theory and the US-China war

I’m not what you would call a devotee of Generational Dynamics, but it’s an interesting perspective and I have read it from time to time. However, I was a little troubled after reading his post last month concerning the recent Pentagon report on China:

There’s never been any doubt that China has been focused for years on invading and taking control of Taiwan. They said that themselves many times, as I’ve reported in dozens of reports on this web site. Furthermore, the Chinese consider a preemptive invasion of Taiwan to be a “defensive” military action.

But the difference is that China now has the military capacity to do that, despite defense by the U.S., according to the report:

“Although the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] is contending with a growing array of missions, Taiwan remains its main strategic direction. China continued modernizing its military in 2010, with a focus on Taiwan contingencies, even as cross-Strait relations improved. The PLA seeks the capability to deter Taiwan independence and influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing’s terms. In pursuit of this objective, Beijing is developing capabilities intended to deter, delay, or deny possible U.S. support for the island in the event of conflict. The balance of cross-Strait military forces and capabilities continues to shift in the mainland’s favor.”

The reports describes deployment of thousands of missiles specifically directed as U.S. naval capabilities in defending Taiwan, including numerous ballistic and cruise missile programs that can attack Taiwan and attack and disable any aircraft carriers or other U.S. naval vessels in the region.

China has deployed dozens of surface and submarine naval attack vessels, supported early-warning aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and other surveillance and reconnaissance equipment, capable of launching nuclear missiles from the sea.

China has also deployed space and cyber warfare capabilities. China has developed the capability to attack and kill America’s communication satellites. Each week there are news stories about Chinese “hackers” stealing enormous amounts of military technology and defense-related secret information.

In addition, China is developing a number of capabilities that can directly attack the U.S.:

“China is modernizing its nuclear forces by adding more survivable delivery systems. In recent years, the road mobile, solid propellant CSS-10 Mod 1 and CSS-10 Mod 2 (DF-31 and DF-31A) intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have entered service. The CSS- 10 Mod 2, with a range in excess of 11,200 km, can reach most locations within the continental United States.”

This is the fulfillment of several threats made by China in years past. In 2005, top-level Chinese army officer General Zhu Chenghu threatened America with nuclear war if America interfered with Taiwan:

“If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond. We … will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [a city in central China]. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds … of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese.”

In 2005, Zhu’s remarks were an empty threat. Today, they’re a real threat.

I was idly wondering why Generational Dynamics would read this report and conclude that “an attack within the next 12-18 months is a reasonable expectation”. So, as I usually do when contemplating these things, I put myself in the perspective of the players and mentally gamed it out.

USA: War makes zero sense. We’re already engaged in six smaller conflicts and are facing an economic depression and a financial crisis. Correct strategy: avoid if possible.

China: War makes zero sense. The long-term trend of the balance of power is in China’s favor. Why start a war now when one can be fought on more favorable terms ten years from now? Correct strategy: avoid if possible.

The problem is that there is a third player.

Taiwan: The ability of the USA to fight a war over the Straits peaked in the 1990s and is now rapidly trending downward. The relative military might of China vis-a-vis the Americans is increasing. Fighting a war now would be dreadful, and yet is probably much more winnable/survivable than fighting one five or ten years from now, especially if the USA ends up melting down due to its economic depression and loses its capacity to project power across the Pacific.

Correct strategy: provoke war as soon as possible.

Fortunately, it’s not up to Taiwan, right? They can’t just attack China to kick things off. However, they can declare independence, which China has always vowed will be met with a declaration of war. So, Taiwan presently holds both the means and the motive to launch a US-China war, and game theory suggests that they should do so as soon as possible. That doesn’t mean they will actually do it; the natural human tendency is to put off the unpleasant as long as possible even the prospects for the future look worse.

But if there are any influential game theorists in Taiwan these days, I tend to suspect that they have been observing events in the USA and China over the last decade and have advised a declaration of independence as soon as the defensive preparations for the promised retaliation are ready. I’m not making any specific predictions here, as I don’t have anywhere nearly enough information to do so. But I will say that the “reasonable expectation” of war in the Taiwanese Straits in the next two years is, in fact, alarmingly reasonable.