Tag: war

US-Russia conflict in Syria

This doesn’t strike me as a positive development. The Saker contemplates the significance of a Russian special forces operation in Syria.

Something rather unprecedented just happened in Syria: US backed “good terrorist” forces attempted a surprise attack against Syrian government forces stationed to the north and northeast of the city of Hama. What makes this attack unique is that it took place inside a so-called “de-escalation zone” and that it appears that one of the key goals of the attack was to encircle in a pincer-movement and subsequently capture a platoon of Russian military police officers deployed to monitor and enforce the special status of this zone. The Russian military police forces, composed mainly of soldiers from the Caucasus region, fought against a much larger enemy force and had to call for assistance. For the first time, at least officially, Russian special operations forces were deployed to rescue and extract their comrades. At the same time, the Russians sent in a number of close air support aircraft who reportedly killed several hundred “good” terrorists and beat back the attack (Russian sources speak of the destruction of 850 fighters, 11 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 46 armed pickup trucks, five mortars, 20 freighter trucks and 38 ammo supply points; you can see photos of the destroyed personnel and equipment here). What also makes this event unique is the official reaction of the Russians to this event.

Head of the Main Operations Department at Russia’s General Staff Colonel General Sergei Rudskoi declared that:

“Despite agreements signed in Astana on September 15, gunmen of Jabhat al-Nusra and joining them units that don’t want to comply with the cessation of hostilities terms, launched a large-scale offensive against positions of government troops north and northeast of Hama in Idlib de-escalation zone from 8 am on September 19 (…) According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor“.

Today, other Russian officials have added a not-so-veiled threat to this accusation. The Russian Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov has declared that:

Russia unequivocally told the commanders of US forces in Al Udeid Airbase (Qatar) that it will not tolerate any shelling from the areas where the SDF are stationed (…) Fire from positions in regions [controlled by the SDF] will be suppressed by all means necessary.

This is unprecedented on many levels. First, the Russians clearly believe that this attempt to kill or capture a platoon of the Russian military police was planned by the United States. The fact that they are making this accusation officially shows the degree of irritation felt by the Russians about the duplicity of the Americans. Second, this is the first time, at least to my knowledge, that Russian Spetsnaz forces had to be sent in to rescue a surrounded Russian subunit. All Spetsnaz operators survived, but three of them were wounded in the operation (the Russians are not saying how badly). The close air support by very low flying SU-25 aircraft was obviously coordinated by Spetsnaz forward air controllers and probably saved the day. In other words, this was a close call and things could have ended much more badly (just imagine what the Takfiri crazies would have done, on video, to any captured Russian serviceman!). Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.

It’s time to get US troops out of Iraq and Syria. Iran and Russia succeeded where the US failed, and now the US presence there is only likely to lead to trouble that the Trump administration cannot afford in light of the Korean situation.

Always focus on fighting on one front at a time unless one has absolutely no ability to avoid it. To do otherwise is not merely foolish, but risks disaster.

Civil resistance in Catalonia

The Spanish government’s attempt to send in the Guardia Civil is being resisted by Catalonian dockworkers as well as the regional government.

More than 4,000 members of Spain’s Guardia Civil are being dispatched to the troubled region amid concerns over divided loyalties in the autonomous community’s own police force, the Mossos d’ Esquadra. Spanish authorities wanted to house the Guardia Civil officers on four cruise ships – two in Barcelona, one in Tarragona and another in Palamos.

But as thousands took to the streets to protest against the detention of Catalan officials, local dock workers joined the backlash. The Assembly of Stevedores of the Port of Barcelona announced that workers would not provide any services to boats carrying security forces, a decision it said was taken “in defence of civil rights”.

Colleagues in Tarragona quickly followed suit and the Catalan government then denied permission to dock in Palamos – which, unlike Barcelona and Tarragona, falls under regional rather than national control.

The moves to disrupt the deployment comes amid seething anger in Catalonia over the arrests of 14 people, most of them high ranking Catalan officials, during preparations for a referendum that has been declared illegal by Spain’s constitutional court.

Dramatic scenes unfolded across Barcelona and other Catalan towns as the Guardia Civil mounted 41 raids targeting government and presidential departments, as well as warehouses containing election material.

Regardless of the rights and wrongs and legalities of the matter that have been debated here over the past few days, it is apparent that the Catalonian secessionists are currently winning at the moral level of war despite the relative restraint of the Spanish government. This would suggest that they will continue to gain support from previously neutral parts, within and without Catalonia.

Why Japan will go nuclear

Peter Grant explains the logic. First, he cites George Friedman on why the Trump administration has been unable to do anything about North Korea despite its efforts to bring in China on the matter:

The US turned to China to negotiate a solution. The Chinese failed. In my view, the Chinese would not be terribly upset to see the US dragged into a war that would weaken Washington if it lost, and would cause massive casualties on all sides if it won. Leaving that question aside, the North Koreans felt they had to have nuclear weapons to deter American steps to destabilize Pyongyang. But the risk of an American attack, however difficult, had to have made them very nervous, even if they were going to go for broke in developing a nuclear capability.

But they didn’t seem very nervous. They seemed to be acting as if they had no fear of a war breaking out. It wasn’t just the many photos of Kim Jong Un smiling that gave this impression. It was that the North Koreans moved forward with their program regardless of American and possible Chinese pressure.

A couple of weeks ago, the reason for their confidence became evident. First, US President Donald Trump tweeted a message to the South Koreans accusing them of appeasement. In response, the South Koreans released a statement saying South Korea’s top interest was to ensure that it would never again experience the devastation it endured during the Korean War. From South Korea’s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North’s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter.

With that policy made public, and Trump’s criticism of it on the table, the entire game changed its form. The situation had been viewed as a two-player game, with North Korea rushing to build a deterrent, and the US looking for the right moment to attack. But it was actually a three-player game, in which the major dispute was between South Korea and the United States.

It doesn’t matter if China is on board if South Korea is not. Hence Peter’s conclusion:

This explains, to my mind, why the US response to North Korea’s undoubtedly aggressive moves has been so muted.  There is no doubt that the USA could turn the whole of North Korea into a radioactive desert – but that would poison parts of China and most of South Korea with fallout, which neither country will accept.  Short of such an all-out nuclear attack, any US military intervention in North Korea must inevitably involve South Korea.  If South Korea is not willing to permit its territory, or its airspace, or its waters, to be used for that purpose, the USA is effectively stymied.

I see only one way to break the logjam, and force the issue.  That would be for the USA to announce that, in view of North Korea’s aggressive actions and stated intentions to become a nuclear power, it is willing to sell nuclear weapons to Japan and South Korea.  Note that I said “sell” – in other words, not station US nuclear weapons in those countries under US control, but give each country its own nuclear warheads and delivery systems, under its own sovereign control.  China would instantly have kittens – a nuclear-armed Japan must be close to its worst nightmare, and a nuclear South Korea wouldn’t be far behind that.  If anything could force China to rein in the North Korean regime, that might do it.

And the reality is that now it is clear North Korea cannot be reined in by the USA, Japan is going to need its own nuclear deterrent, which it probably required anyhow given the growth of China’s global power. SJWs and Republicans may believe Asians are all a single political bloc, but anyone familiar with Asian history knows otherwise.

Ethnic cleansing in Chicago

Chicago is going the way of Compton:

New census statistics show the Hispanic population grew by 17,000 in a one-year period. For the first time, Hispanics are the second-largest racial group in the city. Meanwhile, the African-American population is shrinking, with 42,000 moving out.

In Little Village, it’s not hard to spot the influence and heritage. At Dulcelandia, a candy store, sales and the number of customers have increased since the business opened in 1995. This would seem to reflect new U.S. Census data showing the Hispanic population in Chicago jumping from 786,000 to 803,000 between 2015 and 2016.

This means about 30 percent of the Windy City’s population is now of Hispanic or Latino descent.

In another decade, Chicago will be majority Hispanic/Latino. Americans can posture and preen about racial and ethnic equality all they like. But identity politics are rapidly replacing ideology politics, just as new ethnicities are rapidly replacing America’s blacks and whites alike. The pattern is pretty straightforward: blacks chase whites in order to live in white-dominated societies. Then the more ruthless Hispanics and Asians move in to the white-abandoned locations to chase the blacks out. It’s all fun and games until the whites run out of places to retreat.

This isn’t going to end well. Sooner or later, the 100-year retreat is going to end. The only question is whether it will end in a manner more akin to South Africa and Rhodesia or Yugoslavia. I tend to suspect the latter, but I could be wrong. White Americans aren’t showing any more fight than the white South Africans did. The South Africans had guns and nukes too, but what they lacked was the moral confidence to use them.

And moral confidence is one thing that White America does not possess today.

Self-determination in Spain

I wonder if the USA will intervene as energetically on behalf of the independence-seeking Catalans as it has on behalf of others who have successfully pursued self-determination:

Spanish prosecutors said on Thursday they would bring criminal charges against members of Catalonia’s parliament, as Madrid moved to crush the region’s plans for an independence referendum.

Separately, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he had appealed to Spain’s Constitutional Court to declare the referendum illegal. The 1978 constitution states Spain is indivisible. “This vote will never take place,” he told a news conference. “In making the appeal, we are defending the rights of all Spaniards and all Catalans.”

A majority of Catalonia’s parliament voted on Wednesday to hold the Oct. 1 referendum, in an acrimonious session in which mainstream political parties left the chamber before the vote and pro-independence lawmakers sang the Catalan anthem.

The Constitutional Court has yet to rule on the matter but it declared a 2014 vote on independence illegal. The state prosecutor-general, Jose Manuel Maza, told reporters he had also asked the security forces to investigate any preparations by the Catalan government to hold the referendum. These could involve printing leaflets or preparing polling stations.

There is an air of unreality surrounding the entire affair. But really, if the Catalans genuinely want independence, why should they not have it? The Spanish government doesn’t appear to understand that it is calling its own democratic legitimacy into question.

Let’s face it, no one wants another Spanish civil war. The crazy thing is that an independent Catalonia would almost certainly turn around and demand admittance to the EU.

Reconquista in Myanmar

It’s rather remarkable how, with Muslims running murderously amok all across the West, the Western media still finds the time to cry about how a nation is fighting back against Islamic terrorism in its midst:

Thousands of stateless Muslims have fled ‘genocide’, telling refugee camp workers their people are being hacked to death. The UN estimates almost 50,000 Rohingya have fled Myanmar for Kutupalong Refugee Camp in Bangladesh, claiming they were forced out by a genocidal army.

About 20,000 remain stuck in no-man’s land between Bangladesh and Myanmar, whose government has denied attacking the minority and instead blamed ‘terrorists’ for initiating violence. Myanmar’s military says almost 400 Rohingya have died since then in a Facebook post by the country’s top commander.

Nobin Suna told said the military order the community to stay in their homes. ‘If we stay inside then they set our houses on fire, shooting at us or slaughtering us. Muslims have no rights.’

The minority Muslim group are denied citizenship despite having lived in Myanmar for generations. The military’s statement said all but 29 of the 399 killed were ‘insurgents’ and reported 90 armed clashes. The army launched clearance operations after 30 attacks by insurgents on Friday, with Advocates for Rohingya reporting security forces and vigilantes burned villages and shot civilians, killing hundreds. 

Thanks to the multiculturalists, the West now faces a choice between this and the sort of violent civil war that is tearing apart Nigeria and the Sudan. Myanmar will complete its reconquista soon, and then everyone will marvel at how peaceful it is, just as Spain became considerably more peaceful once Ferdinand and Isabella took back Granada.

North Korea ups the ante

The North Koreans send a very strong “back off” message to the USA:

North Korea today detonated a hydrogen bomb sparking a powerful 6.3 magnitude earthquake amid an ‘escalating’ nuclear crisis.

The terrifying tremor was detected in the northeast of the country where the Punggye-ri test site is located – but was so strong that it shook buildings in China and Russia.

State television claimed the country’s sixth nuclear test – 10 times more powerful than its fifth – was a ‘perfect success’ and could pave the way for a frightening new range of missiles loaded with hydrogen bombs. It added that the underground test – which was directly ordered by leader Kim Jong-un – was a ‘meaningful’ step in completing the country’s nuclear weapons programme.

Following the blast Donald Trump slammed North Korea as a ‘rogue nation’ which is a ‘great threat and embarrassment to China’ – finishing with the thinly-veiled threat: ‘They only understand one thing.’

‘He wrote on Twitter: North Korea has conducted a major Nuclear Test. Their words and actions continue to be very hostile and dangerous to the United States. North Korea is a rogue nation which has become a great threat and embarrassment to China, which is trying to help but with little success. South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!’

This would probably be a very good time to not live anywhere near the East or West Coasts. I’d be astonished if North Korea hasn’t already planted a bomb or two in a Chinese container that is sitting in a US port.

There are no good options here.

It appears diplomacy failed

North Korea fires a missile over Japan:

North Korea has fired a missile that passed over northern Japan today. The government’s J-Alert text message warning system advised people in the area to take precautions and move to a ‘sturdy building or basement’.
The Japanese military did not attempt to shoot down the missile, which passed over Japanese territory around 6.06am local time. It broke into three pieces off the coast of Hokkaido and landed in the Pacific Ocean, around 700 miles east of Cape Erimo, after travelling 1,700m in eight minutes. It is the first time North Korea has fired a projectile over Japan since 2009.
The launch, from Pyongyang, comes after Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) told South Korean lawmakers at a closed door parliamentary session that it has detected signs of the secretive state preparing for another nuclear test at its Punggye-ri underground test site.

How fortunate that the USA has pledged to send more troops to Afghanistan. That should totally help, especially given the fact that the Navy is on stand-down due to its demonstrated inability to avoid deadly, high-speed cargo ships.

Ghe sparemo

The Most Serene City is not screwing around:

Venice’s right-wing mayor has ordered cops to shoot ANYONE who shouts ‘Allahu Akbar’ – rather than risk a terror attack . The phrase in Arabic for ‘God is greatest’ has been shouted in multiple terrorist incidents across the continent.
The Times reports that Italian mayor Luigi Brugnaro claimed that his city Venice was safer than Barcelona – where 14 people died being run down by a van last week.
Speaking at a conference in Rimini, north east Italy, he further revealed the extraordinary order he has given to armed police at one of the most popular tourist attractions in Europe. Brugnaro was applauded by delegates when he said: “In contrast with Barcelona, where they had not set up protection, we keep our guard up.
“If anyone runs into St Mark’s Square shouting ‘Allahu Akhbar’, we will take him down. A year ago I said within four paces, now within three. I will say it in Venetian: ‘Ghe Sparemo’ (We will shoot him).”

This may mark the official beginning of Reconquista 2.0. Now, they’ll give the invaders a chance to behave and keep their mouths shut. It won’t be too terribly long before the policy will be to shoot on sight.
Cloudflare and Google should take note. THIS is what a sensible restriction on free speech looks like.
And this is a man who should be the next Prime Minister of Italy.
“We also need a naval blockade against people coming into Italy from north Africa.”
– Luigi Brugnaro

Preserving ISIS

This is utter insanity. A strategic white paper by “a veteran authority on the Arab-Israeli conflict and strategic developments in the Mideast and expert on Israeli strategic doctrine” argues for saving the monstrous Islamic State.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The West should seek the further weakening of Islamic State, but not its destruction. A weak but functioning IS can undermine the appeal of the caliphate among radical Muslims; keep bad actors focused on one another rather than on Western targets; and hamper Iran’s quest for regional hegemony.
US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter recently gathered defense ministers from allied nations to plan what officials hope will be the decisive stage in the campaign to eradicate the Islamic State (IS) organization. This is a strategic mistake.
IS, a radical Islamist group, has killed thousands of people since it declared an Islamic caliphate in June 2014, with the Syrian city of Raqqa as its de facto capital. It captured tremendous international attention by swiftly conquering large swaths of land and by releasing gruesome pictures of beheadings and other means of execution.
But IS is primarily successful where there is a political void. Although the offensives in Syria and Iraq showed IS’s tactical capabilities, they were directed against failed states with weakened militaries. On occasions when the poorly trained IS troops have met well-organized opposition, even that of non-state entities like the Kurdish militias, the group’s performance has been less convincing. When greater military pressure was applied and Turkish support dwindled, IS went into retreat.
It is true that IS has ignited immense passion among many young and frustrated Muslims all over the world, and the caliphate idea holds great appeal among believers. But the relevant question is what can IS do, particularly in its current situation? The terrorist activities for which it recently took responsibility were perpetrated mostly by lone wolves who declared their allegiance to IS; they were not directed from Raqqa. On its own, IS is capable of only limited damage.
A weak IS is, counterintuitively, preferable to a destroyed IS. IS is a magnet for radicalized Muslims in countries throughout the world. These volunteers are easier targets to identify, saving intelligence work. They acquire destructive skills in the fields of Syria and Iraq that are of undoubted concern if they return home, but some of them acquire shaheed status while still away – a blessing for their home countries. If IS is fully defeated, more of these people are likely to come home and cause trouble.
If IS loses control over its territory, the energies that went into protecting and governing a state will be directed toward organizing more terrorist attacks beyond its borders. The collapse of IS will produce a terrorist diaspora that might further radicalize Muslim immigrants in the West. Most counter-terrorism agencies understand this danger. Prolonging the life of IS probably assures the deaths of more Muslim extremists at the hands of other bad guys in the Middle East, and is likely to spare the West several terrorist attacks.

This is utter madness and lends support to the idea that ISIS was, if not an outright creation of a US-Israeli alliance, at least supported by both the United States and Israel. This is not realpolitik, or whatever its advocates might like to style it, it is hubris and dangerous lunacy.
These jokers claim to be expert strategists, and yet they reliably fail to predict even the most obvious events. And their advice is reliably terrible.