Tag: war

It seems people haven’t learned much from Trump’s largely bloodless accomplishments in North Korea. But the main reason I doubt there will be any real war – or rather, any more real war – in Syria is that the US-Israeli proxies, which is the polite way of saying ISIS, have already been defeated.

Trump will have difficulty not doing something impressive after denouncing “Animal Assad” and promising that the Syrian leader would “pay a price” for the gas attack. Trump has also denounced President Barak Obama for his timidity in his use of US military strength against President Bashar al-Assad, so the US may do something spectacular.

What is more doubtful is whether or not US air strikes will have much impact in the long term. In many respects, the political situation on the ground in Syria has gelled as Assad asserts his control over most of populated Syria. The last rebels are being evacuated from Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus. Syrian troops and tanks are reported to be massing to overrun an Isis held stronghold in the south of the capital.

Syria is being divided into three zones of unequal size: Assad backed by Russia and Iran in much of the country; Sunni Arab factions backed by Turkey in Idlib, newly captured Afrin and territory north of Aleppo; and in the north and east, a large triangle of land east of the Euphrates held by the Kurds supported by 2,000 US troops able to call in massive air power. Even heavy US air strikes on a one-off basis will not significantly change this balance of power.

There may well be a few missiles lobbed as well as an air strike or ten. But that is nothing serious. And remember, all Trump has promised is missiles, which by Middle East standards is merely sabre-rattling 103.

Or this is some sort of sleight of hand meant to occupy the Deep State. The God-Emperor is already fighting one war, what possible benefit can come of discovering that the USA is no longer the global monopower it has been for the last 25 years? This posturing would appear to border on sheer lunacy.

Trump tweeted: “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!”

“You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!”

The US President’s tweet esclates tensions to a new level amid reports of an imminent strike by US forces on the Syrian regime.

Russia are allies with dictator Bashar al-Assad and are expected to defend him should the US attack – with US accusing Putin of having “blood on his hands”.

The Russians don’t appear particularly frightened or impressed by the increased sabre-rattling:

US missiles fired at Syria will be shot down, and launch sites targeted, a Russian ambassador warned today.

The measures threatened by Alexander Zasypkin, Russia’s ambassador to Lebanon, could trigger a major escalation in the Syrian conflict.

In comments broadcast on Tuesday evening, said he was referring to a statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian armed forces chief of staff.

The Russian military said on March 13 that it would respond to any U.S. strike on Syria, targeting any missiles and launchers involved in such an attack. Russia is Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s most powerful ally.

If the Saker and other Russian observers are to be believed, Russia has been preparing for this conflict for some time now. They have concluded that the USA is either crazy or duplicitous, and in either case, can no longer be trusted to abide by any agreement. The US, on the other hand, appears to believe it can simply continue to throw its weight around and treat the Russians as cavalierly as it has treated the Libyans, the Syrians, the Iraqis, and the Afghans.

The worrisome thing is that the Russians are more prepared for this potential war than they were for WWII and have the technological edge in a number of areas. Their limited resources have forced them to focus on efficiency and better technology. And if you know your military history, most powerful aggressors meet with defeat when they have an exaggerated confidence in their own abilities and an unjustified contempt for the limits of their enemies.

Sound relevant?

As for whether this war could possibly take place on such flimsy premises, remember that more than a few of the USA’s past wars have been based on false flags like the USS Maine and the Gulf of Tonkin incident. This is no different. Meanwhile, this report is little more than a melange of tragedy and farce:

Syria MISSILE STRIKE ‘within hours’: RAF on ALERT for possible launch. BRITISH and French forces could launch an imminent missile strike on Syria within a matter of hours, aviation monitors have revealed.

The RAF and the Armée de l’Air have less than 500 active combat aircraft between them. Anyhow, as will all things related to the God-Emperor, I advise waiting and watching before reaching any conclusions.

Although the US cannot lose a trade war with China due to the fact that it is already $600 billion in the annual red thanks to the trade deficit, that does not mean that China does not have an ace or two up its sleeve:

Chinese President Xi Jinping is now exchanging threats of tit-for-tat tariffs with President Trump, who announced Thursday he’s considering raising the stakes another $100 billion. China vowed to defend itself “at any cost.”

Compared to the scale of the U.S. economy, the numbers are still relatively trivial and mostly theoretical. But if things do spiral into all-out trade war, it’s worth noting China has a nuclear option.

I’m referring to rare earth metals.

These are elements like dysprosium, neodymium, gadolinium, and ytterbium. They aren’t actually rare, but they do play crucial roles in everything from smart phones to electric car motors, hard drives, wind turbines, military radar, smart bombs, laser guidance, and more. They’re also quite difficult to mine and process.

It turns out the United States is almost entirely dependent on foreign suppliers for rare earth metals. More importantly, it’s almost entirely dependent on China specifically for rare earth metals that have been processed into a final and usable form.

Basically, if China really wanted to mess with America, it could just clamp down on these exports. That would throw a massive wrench into America’s supply chain for high-tech consumer products, not to mention much of our military’s advanced weapons systems.

In fact, China isn’t just America’s major supplier of rare earth metals; it’s the rest of the globe’s major supplier as well. And in 2009, China began significantly clamping down on its rare metal exports. Once, China briefly cut Japan off entirely after an international incident involving a collision between two ships. This all eventually led to a 2014 World Trade Organization spat, with America, Japan, and other countries on one side, and China on the other.

That forced China to abandon its quotas. But it also shows China is willing to use its advantage in rare earth metals to play hardball if it’s pushed far enough.

However, this is not an argument for free trade. In fact, it is precisely the opposite, it is a devastating disproof of Ricardian Comparative Advantage theory, which posits that manufacturing can move seamlessly between industries. In fact, if one were to argue that the USA must engage in trade due to its fear of its inability to process rare earth metals, one would have have to reject the theory of comparative advantage, and therefore, free trade.

This is the danger of engaging in the Ricardian Vice. It becomes all too easy to accidentally refute your own position when attempting to respond to protectionist arguments.

Austin Bay considers the Seven Chinas grand narrative.

Nations have always used narratives to support their diplomatic operations. Not all of them are “weaponized,” but a powerful, moving story gives a diplomatic initiative additional energy. Often these narratives incorporate nation or ethnic historical and cultural themes. Since they support a diplomatic initiative, they are always political.

In February, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies published a short paper entitled “Seven Chinas: A Policy Framework.” The paper briefly examined “seven identities” that the Chinese government uses to “shape and justify policy.”

Each identity is a narrative.

China 1: Self-sufficient civilization (We generate our own values)

China 2: Most humiliated nation (Our senior civilization, conquered and despised)

China 3: Leader of the developing world (Late developing China leads developing nations)

China 4: Champion of plurality (We are ending Western/American hegemony)

China 5: Sovereign survivor (We survived the collapse of Communism because we are unique)

China 6: Last man standing (The West is declining while our wealth is increasing)

China 7: Herald of the high frontier (China and shares the global trade and communications commons)

In the South China Sea China’s narrative weapons have augmented its military and economic clout. It’s proved to be a powerful combination.

Compare these to the ever-shifting globalist and SJW narratives that have replaced the traditional Western narrative. It is eminently clear that in any matchup of these particular weaponized narratives, China is not merely winning, China is going to win.

Against an invasion of millions of aliens? How unthinkable! How outrageous! The God-Emperor finally takes action to secure the southern border of the United States.

President Donald Trump is directing the National Guard to protect the southern border of the country, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen said Wednesday.

“It’s time to act,” Nielsen said, without specifying the number of troops that would be deployed though she said “it will be strong.” She added that details will be worked out with governors and that “we do hope that the deployment begins immediately.”

The move follows Trump’s warning Tuesday to Mexican leaders that he would abandon the North American Free Trade Agreement without assurances of help on securing the border.

And, inexplicably, the President’s approval rating has also been rising. But  how can this be? Doesn’t he know this violates the Ellis Island Amendment?

The God-Emperor understands that immigration is war. And if you don’t sink the ships, you will come to regret it.

UPDATE: See, all it takes is a little firm resolve from the White House.

A caravan of Central American migrants whose trek across Mexico infuriated President Donald Trump has decided not to travel to the US border, leaders said Tuesday.

I am pleased to announce that, effective 4/9/18, @AmbJohnBolton will be my new National Security Advisor. I am very thankful for the service of General H.R. McMaster who has done an outstanding job & will always remain my friend. 
– Donald Trump

Looks like the neocons may be coming back. But, as always, whenever Trump is at the center of the activity, don’t rush to judgment. Given what is going on behind the scenes, this may have nothing to do with Bolton’s “first strike on North Korea and bomb Iran” lunacy.

Then again, that was only three years ago. On the third hand, McMaster was also an aggressive hawk who wanted war with both North Korea and Russia. So, this may be a lateral move.

I’m getting a little tired of people who are dumb enough to keep lunging at the first word that comes out of Trump’s mouth when he is confronted by the media about some new development. OF COURSE HE DOESN’T TELL THEM THE TRUTH! If the God-Emperor was in the habit of practicing perfect honesty when speaking to a group of people who are out to destroy him, he wouldn’t have been nominated, let alone elected. FFS, he’s been President for over a year now, have you learned nothing about how the man operates?

Meanwhile, the British media is freaking out because despite whatever he is supposed to have told Theresa May, President Trump has made it eminently clear that he has no intention whatsoever of backing Britain in their idiotic neocon-inspired war on Russia:

Trump defies aides to congratulate Putin on election ‘victory’ in phone call and fails to challenge him over Salisbury nerve agent outrage. Donald Trump congratulated Vladimir Putin on reelection in telephone call. Overture will fuel fears that allies’ support for Britain is less than full-hearted.

Donald Trump has risked a split with Britain by congratulating Vladimir Putin on his re-election – and failing to mention the Salisbury nerve agent scandal. The US president seemingly defied the advice of aides to praise Mr Putin in a phone call despite UK fury at Russia’s involvement in the poisoning of a former spy. Mr Trump did not challenge his counterpart over the outrage on British soil, and said afterwards that they had a ‘very good call’.

The news will raise fresh concerns about the commitment of the UK’s allies to hold Russia to account over the use of military-grade Novichok poison against Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia.

Translation: the president knows perfectly well that Russia was not responsible and that it was a false flag. Now, here is a heuristic that I have found very useful in understanding the words and actions of Donald Trump. If he has said two contradictory things, and one of them is to his base and the other is to the media, the thing that will be false is what he is telling the media.  Because unlike Clinton and Obama, the media is not on his side. Unlike Bush and Bush, he knows that the media is not on his side.

Meanwhile, the God-Emperor would do well to fire those treacherous aides who are seeking to push war with Russia Russia Russia. It won’t surprise me if he does, or to learn that he used the episode to smoke out more Deep Staters in his employ.

Good fathers hope their sons will know peace, but prepare them for war:

“There is a beast in every man, and it stirs when you put a sword in his hand.”—Jorah Mormont

Men were made for violence. It’s part of why they were created. To protect the weak. To fight for themselves and for nations. To compete and to win.

Do you know why men like football? Why they watch boxing? Why Romans watched the gladiators slaughter each other? Because part of men was made for violence and their instincts draw them to it. We cannot suppress human nature. We cannot half-embrace who and what we are—how God made us, and how we are built.

It’s fun to play Advanced Squad Leader. But as the late, great Jerry Pournelle taught us, there will be war. And while it’s important to learn how to shoot a shotgun, it’s arguably even more important to be able to competently direct a combined arms attack on a fortified position, particularly when there is a time limit and enemy reinforcements on the way.

We’re just beginning Turn 3 German of ASLSK S24 Sherman Marches West and the outcome is still definitely in doubt. He hasn’t found my anti-tank gun, but I foolishly left my PzKpfw IIIN with its 75mm popgun fending off the assault in the center, where it is presently bouncing shells off advancing Russian armor while my late model Tiger 1 is holding down the fort doing nothing on the left flank. But while I haven’t managed to deal out much damage, I have been able to chew up two turns without taking any losses, and now I have two platoons of reinforcements arriving.

But win or lose, next up will be our first campaign game, Decision at Elst. And by the way, the latest version of VASL, 6.4.2, running on VASSAL 3.2.17, truly is a work of art. The practical functionality of VASL is still amazing to me even though I’ve been using it since rk first created it more than 20 years ago.

Peter Hitchens laments the fifth straight mindless rush to war on false pretenses by the British government and media:

Is THIS a warning? In the past few days I have begun to sense a dangerous and dark new intolerance in the air, which I have never experienced before. An unbidden instinct tells me to be careful what I say or write, in case it ends badly for me. How badly? That is the trouble. I am genuinely unsure.

I have been to many countries where free speech is dangerous. But I have always assumed that there was no real risk here.

Now, several nasty trends have come together. The treatment of Jeremy Corbyn, both by politicians and many in the media, for doing what he is paid for and leading the Opposition, seems to me to be downright shocking.

I disagree with Mr Corbyn about many things and actively loathe the way he has sucked up to Sinn Fein. But he has a better record on foreign policy than almost anyone in Parliament. Above all, when so many MPs scuttled obediently into the lobbies to vote for the Iraq War, he held his ground against it and was vindicated.

Mr Corbyn has earned the right to be listened to, and those who now try to smear him are not just doing something morally wrong. They are hurting the country. Look at our repeated rushes into foolish conflict in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. All have done us lasting damage.

Everyone I meet now thinks they were against the Iraq War (I know most of them weren’t, but never mind). So that’s over. But Libya remains an unacknowledged disgrace. David Cameron has not suffered for it, and those who cheered it on have yet to admit they were mistaken….

I sense an even deeper and more thoughtless frenzy over Russia, a country many seem to enjoy loathing because they know so little about it.

I have already been accused, on a public stage, of justifying Moscow’s crime in Salisbury. This false charge was the penalty I paid for trying to explain the historical and political background to these events. I wonder if the bitterness also has something to do with the extraordinarily deep division over the EU, which has made opponents into enemies in a way not seen since the Suez Crisis.

In any case, the crude accusation, with its implication of treachery, frightened me. I expect, as time goes by, I will be accused of being an ‘appeaser’ and of being against ‘British values’. And then what? An apparatus of thought policing is already in place in this country. By foolishly accepting bans on Muslim ‘extremists’, we have licensed public bodies to decide that other views, too, are ‘extremist’.

Britain desperately needs a Brexit party that will pursue British First policies rather than obediently falling into line with the neocons, who play the same role in the Conservative Party and Nu Labour wing that they do in the Republican Party and Clinton Democrat wing.

The remarkable thing about both Britain and the USA is the way so many of their citizens are willing to take arms, fight, and die in wars against neutrals of no interest to their nations while never raising a voice, let alone a finger, against the Invade the World, Invite the World internal enemies who are, at the very least, threatening the survival of both nations through immigration and war.

Russia responds to Great Britain’s diplomatic attack:

‘On March 17, Ambassador of Great Britain to Russia Laurie Bristow was summoned to the Foreign Ministry, where he was handed a note stating that in response to the provocative actions of the British side and groundless accusations against the Russian Federation with regard to the incident in Salisbury, UK on March 4, 2018, the Russian side has taken the following decisions in response.

‘Twenty-three diplomatic staff of the UK Embassy in Moscow are declared persona non grata and are to be expelled from Russia within a week.

‘Taking into account the disparity in the number of the two countries’ consular missions, the Russian Federation recalls its agreement on the opening and operation of the Consulate General of the United Kingdom in St Petersburg.

‘Respective procedures will be followed in accordance with international legal practice.

‘Due to the unregulated status of the British Council in the Russian Federation, its activities are terminated.

‘The British side is warned that in case of further unfriendly actions against Russia, the Russian side reserves the right to take further retaliatory measures.’

If the British are smart, they will declare victory and leave it at that. But I don’t think Theresa May is smart. The neocons want war with Russia and they are pressuring her to give it to them.