Tag: war

An interesting experiment in applying WAR to war. Which is to say, Wins Above Replacement:

Among all generals, Napoleon had the highest WAR (16.679) by a large margin. In fact, the next highest performer, Julius Caesar (7.445 WAR), had less than half the WAR accumulated by Napoleon across his battles. Napoleon benefited from the large number of battles in which he led forces. Among his 43 listed battles, he won 38 and lost only 5. Napoleon overcame difficult odds in 17 of his victories, and commanded at a disadvantage in all 5 of his losses. No other general came close to Napoleon in total battles. While Napoleon commanded forces in 43 battles, the next most prolific general was Robert E. Lee, with 27 battles (the average battle count was 1.5). Napoleon’s large battle count allowed him more opportunities to demonstrate his tactical prowess. Alexander the Great, despite winning all 9 of his battles, accumulated fewer WAR largely because of his shorter and less prolific career.

However, outside of Napoleon’s outlying success, the generals’ WARs largely adhere to a normal distribution. This suggests his success is attributable to command talent, rather than an anomaly in the model’s findings. In fact, Napoleon’s total WAR was nearly 23 standard deviations above the mean WAR accumulated by generals in the dataset.

There were also generals that had surprisingly low total WAR despite a reputation as master tacticians. Robert E. Lee, commander of the Confederate States Army, finished with a negative WAR (-1.89), suggesting an average general would have had more success than Lee leading the Confederacy’s armies. Lee was saddled with considerable disadvantages, including a large deficit in the size of his military and available resources. Still, his reputation as an adept tactician is likely undeserved, and his WAR supports the historians who have criticized his overall strategy and handling of key battles, such as ordering the disastrous ‘Pickett’s Charge’ on the last day of the Battle of Gettysburg. In the words of University of South Carolina professor Thomas Connely, “One ponders whether the South may not have fared better had it possessed no Robert E. Lee.”

German field marshal Erwin Rommel, nicknamed the ‘Desert Fox’ for his successes in North Africa during World War II, also performed poorly in this model, finishing with -1.953 WAR. This finding disputes the praise Rommel has received as a tactician from modern generals, including Norman Schwarzkopf and Ariel Sharon. However, like Lee, Rommel has been the subject of considerable historical debate. In particular, critics have attributed much of his reputation as a tactical genius to both German and Allied propaganda. British generals reportedly exaggerated Rommel’s tactical abilities in order to minimize disapproval regarding their defeats.

Modern generals performed relatively poorly in the model. American general George S. Patton, described by historian Terry Brighton as “among the greatest generals of [World War II],” accumulated only .9 WAR. The failure of modern generals to perform well in WAR may be attributable to changes in warfare which have prevented individual generals from participating in a large number of battles.

Among post-World War II generals, Israeli commanders stood out. Israeli military leader Moshe Dayan finished with 2.109 WAR (60th overall), an impressive amount for a modern general but relatively modest compared to pre-20th Century tacticians. Similarly, former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon accumulated 2.171 WAR (58th overall) for his battlefield successes in the Suez Crisis, Six-Day War, and Yom Kippur War.

It’s more an entertaining experiment than a serious statistical analysis, but I suspect the incredible tactical success it assigns to Napoleon is much more reflective of the French general’s strategic brilliance than anything else. In like manner, the Israeli generals appear to be overrated due to the low quality of their opposition; if I recall correctly, it was Dayan himself who said that the key to his military success was the fact that he was fighting Arabs.

Napoleon, on the other hand, fought the military creme de la creme of Europe, was often outnumbered, and usually won anyhow. But when you analyse his career, it tends to be his strategic actions that are the more striking and decisive.

It sounds as if the new Austrian government may be following the lead of the God-Emperor in rooting out the anti-democratic Deep State:

The raids came without warning, surprising even the intelligence operatives whose job is to never be caught off guard.

On the morning of Feb. 28, police stormed offices of Austria’s main domestic intelligence agency and carted off some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets in open crates and plastic bags. Top spy service officials working from home that day were greeted by officers threatening to break down their doors.

The extraordinary decision to target the agency responsible for defending the country from a multitude of threats, including right-wing extremism, had been made by the service’s new bosses: members of the far-right Freedom Party.

The reason? Defending the totalitarian North Korean regime from an Austrian espionage operation, among others cited in the search warrant. Critics saw absurd pretext for a politically motivated stab at an independent institution that could threaten the party’s agenda.

More than five months later, the impact continues to ripple across this central European nation of 9 million – and far beyond. In a country whose geopolitical positioning between East and West has long made it a nest of spies – “a playground for all nations” in the words of one Austrian intelligence veteran – the hometown service has been left in disarray.

“It’s paralysis,” the veteran said. “How could you work in such an environment?”

Intelligence services across the West, meanwhile, have looked on in dismay – and have chosen to protect their own secrets by freezing Austria out.

And yet, it looks rather like the duly-elected Austrian government is working with both the U.S. white hats as well as Russia. Is anyone really surprised that the enemies of the people are siding with a shadowy, unaccountable intelligence agency rather than a popular government freely elected by the people?

From a comment on a Darkstream:

“Having a clean room doesn’t matter when Alaric the Goth is sacking your city.”

But, “the most important thing we can do is pray.”

Said totally unironically.

There is nothing at all ironic about the juxtaposition of those two statements. I advised the commenter to read how Fabius Maximus defeated the brilliant Carthaginian general Hannibal, and what his very first priority was when given command of the Roman legions.

From Livy, Ab Urbe Condita, Book 22

Q. Fabius Maximus was now Dictator for the second time. On the very day of his entrance upon office he summoned a meeting of the senate, and commenced by discussing matters of religion. He made it quite clear to the senators that C. Flaminius’ fault lay much more in his neglect of the auspices and of his religious duties than in bad generalship and foolhardiness. The gods themselves, he maintained, must be consulted as to the necessary measures to avert their displeasure, and he succeeded in getting a decree passed that the decemvirs should be ordered to consult the Sibylline Books, a course which is only adopted when the most alarming portents have been reported. 

After inspecting the Books of Fate they informed the senate that the vow which had been made to Mars in view of that war had not been duly discharged, and that it must be discharged afresh and on a much greater scale. The Great Games must be vowed to Jupiter, a temple to Venus Erycina and one to Mens; a lectisternium must be held and solemn intercessions made; a Sacred Spring must also be vowed. All these things must be done if the war was to be a successful one and the republic remain in the same position in which it was at the beginning of the war. As Fabius would be wholly occupied with the necessary arrangements for the war, the senate with the full approval of the pontifical college ordered the praetor, M. Aemilius, to take care that all these orders were carried out in good time. 

After the various obligations towards the gods had thus been discharged, the Dictator referred to the senate the question of the policy to be adopted with regard to the war, with what legions and how many the senators thought he ought to meet their victorious enemy… 


From Plutarch, Fabius

The first solemn action of his dictatorship was very fitly a religious one: an admonition to the people, that their late overthrow had not befallen them through want of courage in their soldiers, but through the neglect of divine ceremonies in the general. He therefore exhorted them not to fear the enemy, but by extraordinary honour to propitiate the gods. This he did, not to fill their minds with superstition, but by religious feeling to raise their courage, and lessen their fear of the enemy by inspiring the belief that Heaven was on their side. With this view, the secret prophecies called the Sibylline Books were consulted; sundry predictions found in them were said to refer to the fortunes and events of the time; but none except the consulter was informed. Presenting himself to the people, the dictator made a vow before them to offer in sacrifice the whole product of the next season, all Italy over, of the cows, goats, swine, sheep, both in the mountains and the plains; and to celebrate musical festivities with an expenditure of the precise sum of 333 sestertia and 333 denarii, with one-third of a denarius over. The sum total of which is, in our money, 83,583 drachmas and 2 obols. What the mystery might be in that exact number is not easy to determine, unless it were in honour of the perfection of the number three, as being the first of odd numbers, the first that contains in itself multiplication, with all other properties whatsoever belonging to numbers in general. 

In this manner Fabius, having given the people better heart for the future, by making them believe that the gods took their side, for his own part placed his whole confidence in himself, believing that the gods bestowed victory and good fortune by the instrumentality of valour and of prudence; and thus prepared he set forth to oppose Hannibal, not with intention to fight him, but with the purpose of wearing out and wasting the vigour of his arms by lapse of time, of meeting his want of resources by superior means, by large numbers the smallness of his forces. With this design, he always encamped on the highest grounds, where the enemy’s horse could have no access to him. Still he kept pace with them; when they marched he followed them; when they encamped he did the same, but at such a distance as not to be compelled to an engagement and always keeping upon the hills, free from the insults of their horse; by which means he gave them no rest, but kept them in a continual alarm. 

Some will consider this missive to be overly optimistic. And perhaps it is. On the other hand, it fits the observable evidence considerably better than virtually every other interpretation of current events over the last few months that I’ve seen. It answers the two primary doubts that Q skeptics have.

1. Why isn’t anything substantive seen to be happening?
2. Why isn’t the President acting more openly?

The answer is straightforward. The control of the media over people’s perceptions of what the truth is absolutely has to be broken before news of this magnitude can go public. And now we’re seeing the God-Emperor do what he has been doing since his campaign for the Republican nomination began. He is forcing the media to expose themselves and declare themselves openly.

Trust the plan. Recognize the pattern. Shut up and email.

Do you really think we are not in control? We have everything.

• Proof of assassination attempts.
• Proof of murder and child sacrifice.
• Proof of treason and sedition.

Any time we want, we can pounce. Trump can declare martial law. Legally and instantly if needed. Maybe he already has? Maybe arrests already happened.

• Hillary 10/30/17.
• Podesta. Huma. LDR. 11/17.

Catch and release. Of media owners. Of Cabal directors. Less than 100 people. And the 4AM talking point authors.

The media is doing what they are told. And they are told to attack Trump. And the lemmings follow blindly. Along with Congress and the world. Why? It’s actually quite simple. Genius. Elegant. Foolproof.

The current battle is against the media.

• Step 1: Force media to destroy themselves.
• Step 2: Expose media as the people’s enemy.
• Step 3: People blame media for the coverup.
• Step 4: Media is destroyed and replaced. Arrests are easy. Institutions are not.

Faith in the media must be destroyed.

Trump lets them live in jail, if plan works. Otherwise their sentence is death. Military tribunals already held. They are working hard for Trump. To save their own lives, and their kids. Jail better than hanging to most. Others have already chosen hanging. Explains suicide weekend option.

In exchange, they destroy the media for us. On purpose and on schedule. On time and under budget. Trump style. They are forced to corner themselves. They are forced to turn on themselves. More efficient. Saul Alinsky style. I think we are ahead of schedule.

Mid terms are not at risk. They never were at risk. 70{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759} conservative / 30{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759} liberal = True. We would never leave it to chance. The only risk left is economic. From normies freaking out too much. Or rogue operators. The 4-6{8359bd26b913e24a7303d212a23546aa4fafa0cfcdec25c849ef881c8a4ae759}.

We fought the real war in 2017. Trump at CIA on day fucking 1. Battle started that morning. Last major battle was Vegas 10/17. SA government overthrown weeks later. Then Q starts posting 10/28/17.

This battle is now about minds. Slowly awakening the masses. To break the media hypnosis. Relax. Be a warrior not a worrier. Justice has already been served.

You just don’t know it yet.

Right, because trying to kill people on Westminster Bridge is just something that the British people have always done. It’s part and parcel of living in London, after all.

A Sudanese immigrant known to police is thought to be behind another terror attack on Westminster after ploughing his car into 15 cyclists outside Parliament.

Salih Khater, 29, veered off the road careering into pedestrians and cyclists at Parliament Square, after spending the night cruising around London.

There were screams as the Ford Fiesta mounted the pavement and mowed people down at up to 50mph at 7.37am.

In a chilling echo of Khalid Masood’s murderous rampage on Westminster 17 months ago, the driver, from Birmingham, sped towards the Palace of Westminster – narrowly missing two police officers guarding the access road who jumped out of his path. He then smashed into a security barrier outside Parliament.

Despite hitting at least 15 cyclists and pedestrians during rush hour, no one was killed with only one female cyclist seriously injured.

Everything across the West is now just a prelude to war. In the extremely unlikely chance you haven’t already gunned up, I suggest you do so now.

Diversity + Proximity = War.

Declare a draw and go home. That’s the only serious option in Afghanistan:

The Taliban is on the verge of dramatically expanding its control over southern and eastern Afghanistan in a surprise offensive that has caught Afghan and American forces off guard and thrown a vexing new wrench into the Trump administration’s strategy for ending the nearly 17-year-old war there.

The Afghan Defense Ministry said Monday a Taliban assault on the city of Ghanzi — a key provincial capital linking other areas under the Islamic militant group’s control just 75 miles southeast of Kabul — has killed roughly 100 Afghan security forces and some 20 civilians over the past three days.

While the Afghan forces, backed by U.S. and NATO advisors, claimed Monday night to have retained control of central Ghanzi, local reports indicated Taliban fighters still held pockets of the city and had simultaneously swept in and taken over most of the surrounding province’s rural areas.

Analysts said the development has underscored the Taliban’s capability for a resurgence in Afghanistan and will likely increase the group’s political leverage over peace talks with U.S. officials that the Trump administration has quietly been trying to get off the ground.

Surprising? Who is actually surprised? The Taliban was always going to win, because the Taliban only has to outlast the USA, which was never going to stay permanently in the Graveyard of Empires. The God-Emperor should point out that the Afghan Occupation has served its purpose and bring the troops home. They’d be put to much better use on the southern border… or the western one once California secedes.

California prosecutors drop all charges against violent Antifa professor:

BREAKING: California Prosecutors drop major charges against violent Antifa gang member Eric Clanton who assaulted Trump supporter with deadly weapon – OAN

It looks like they really want war. There is not even a pretense of maintaining a civilized, law-abiding society anymore. This, by the way, is what post-Christianity looks like.

The attack on American nationalism long predates George Soros and Jordan Peterson. From page 143 of the book The Killing of Uncle Sam:

A SUBVERSIVE PURPOSE

In 1957, a congressional investigative committee revealed the following finding: “In the international field, foundations, and an interlock among some of them and certain intermediary organizations, have exercised a strong effect upon our foreign policy and upon public education in things international. This has been accomplished by vast propaganda, by supplying executives and advisers to government and by controlling much research in this area through the power of the purse. The net result of these combined efforts has been to promote ‘internationalism’ in a particular sense—a form directed toward ‘world government’ and a derogation of American ‘nationalism.’ The CFR has become in essence an agency of the United States Government [and its] productions are not objective but are directed overwhelmingly at promoting the globalist concept.”

This subversive purpose has been verified by Foreign Affairs, the Council’s own publication, which has been called “the most influential periodical in print” by Time magazine. In its inaugural issue (September 1922), the journal condemned “the dubious doctrines expressed by such phrases of ‘safety first’ and ‘America first.’” In its second issue, Philip Kerr, a member of the British Round Table, declared: “Obviously there is going to be no peace or prosperity for mankind so long as it remains divided into fifty or sixty independent states. Equally obviously there is going to be no steady progress in civilization or self-government among the more backward peoples until some kind of international system is created which will put an end to the diplomatic struggles of every nation to make itself secure. The real problem today is that of world government.”

Notice that the attacks on the concept of ‘America first’ predate Donald Trump’s slogan and trade policy by nearly 100 years. This has been a very long secret war waged against America. Ideology is now secondary, the only real struggle that matters is the conflict between globalist and nationalist.

It doesn’t matter if a globalist happens to say things that sound good about open societies or cleaning your room. If you love America, if you love the country in which you live, the globalists are your sworn enemies.

It appears some people are getting increasingly desperate.

A U.S. Air Force F-16 fighter jet on Saturday intercepted a small plane near Donald Trump’s private golf resort in New Jersey, where the president is currently staying.

Continental U.S. North American Aerospace Defense Command said a “general aviation aircraft” entered a temporary restricted area “without proper clearances or communications” over Bedminster, N.J.

The plane landed without incident and the pilot was met by law enforcement officials.

I’m a bit dubious about that fatal “stroke” suffered by one of the President’s secret service agents in Scotland as well.

None of these people would have drowned if the European navies had simply sunk the ships that initially sparked the invasion:

Over 600 migrants, including babies and young children, have drowned in the Mediterranean in the past month, in the wake of Italy’s ban on rescue boats, two major charities claim. More people have drowned trying to cross the sea from northern Africa to Europe in the past four weeks than in the entire first five months of 2018, according Doctors Without Borders (MSF). The MSF blames the deaths on the fact that there had been no charity rescue boats active in the central Mediterranean, as they have been banned from docking in Italy.

Salvini wants to reduce the number of migrants leaving North Africa to reduce the arrivals in Europe and deaths in the Mediterranean along the way. He says that will reduce tensions among European nations over their internal borders.

‘Obviously, if you drastically reduce the departures and arrivals, the problems inside the EU among individual countries will also be reduced,’ he said.

He said he hoped Europe as a whole will continue to recognize the ‘minority’ of people who deserve asylum because they are fleeing war, but not the others. ‘We hope that finally the European Union resumes defending its borders and the right to security of 500 million European citizens who in recent years have been put at risk,’ Salvini said.

No true humanitarian would have permitted anyone to embark upon such an obviously dangerous and illegal course of action.