Tag: sports

Why I don’t watch NCAA football

It’s just a joke. A complete farce. I’m glad I quit paying attention to it years ago. The idea that Alabama, which has already lost to LSU, should play LSU again for the nonexistent “national title” is simply ridiculous in every way.

What they’re playing for is the SEC title, not the national one, the recent SEC championship game notwithstanding. How many teams outside the SEC have both teams even played? Six! LSU played Oregon, Northwestern State (?), and West Virginia. Alabama played Kent State, Penn State, and North Texas. A real murderer’s row of competitors there. While the SEC is the premier conference in college football, the more salient point here is that neither team has played a single Big 12 team; LSU hasn’t played the Big 10, Alabama hasn’t played the Pac-12.

Who cares if LSU beats Alabama again? We already know they can and probably will. And it’s worse if Alabama upsets LSU, since people will always wonder if Oklahoma State could have beaten them as well. I used to follow college football, but began to lose interest in college football once the focus shifted away from the inter-conference rivalries and towards a mythical “national” championship. I haven’t paid any attention to it in years, and latest debacle confirms my opinion that the NCAA is corrupt and stupid, the BCS is a ridiculous farce, and I’d rather much rather review advanced NFL statistics at Football Outsiders than devote any time to NCAA football.

If I ran the BCS, I would have instituted a simple rule preventing any such travesties. No intra-conference rematches if there is a potential opponent with a similar or better record, regardless of the BCS rating. When one is attempting to determine a national title, there should always be a heavy bias towards matching up teams from difference conferences. Of course, an NFL-style playoff system where the top teams from the six major conferences, plus two wild cards, make the playoffs makes far too much sense for the NCAA to ever adopt it.

VPFL Week 12

58 Moundsview Meerkats (8-4-0)
55 MS Swamp Spartans (6-6-0)

79 RR Redbeards (5-6-1)
76 Greenfield Grizzlies (7-5-0)

81 Bane Sidhe (6-6-0)
63 GroverBeach Quixotes (4-8-0)

84 Bailout Banksters (7-4-1)
30 Cranberry Rhyneauxs (4-8-0)

67 Macau Marauders (5-6-1)
56 Green Reverends (6-5-1)

Mailvox: an easy choice

Jamsco asked me to consider presenting an argument for supporting Tebow and the Broncos versus an argument for supporting the Vikings. I rejected that because there is absolutely no chance I would ever support any team against the Vikings. I find The Miracle of Tebow to be even more entertaining than the Tarvaris Jackson Experiment, and I wish the young man well in general, but against the Vikings?

Never. The only circumstance in which I might consider supporting another team against the Vikings is if one of my children was playing against them. And even then, I’d probably hope for an excellent individual performance in defeat.

However, I can say that seeing the Vikings lose to Tebow and the Broncos on Sunday would be less painful than most historical Vikings defeats. I rank Vikings defeats on the following 10-point pain scale:

10- Dallas Hail-Mary game. Pearson absolutely committed offensive pass interference.
9 – Oakland. Super Bowl XI.
8 – Atlanta. 38 in 98. This was dreadful, but unlike the other two games, I didn’t actually cry. One of the guys at the bar in Florida did, however.
7 – New Orleans. NFC Championship aka The Greased Pig Game. This probably would have been an 8 if I was younger and was still capable of feeling normal human emotion. Also, New York 41-0. People tend to forget the Vikes were actually favored. Total disaster from the get-go.
6 – New England. The 28-27 game. How do you lose when you’re winning 27-0? Pittsburgh. Super Bowl IX. I didn’t expect the Vikings to win, but I still hoped. Washington. The Darren Nelson drop in the 1987 NFC championship. We would have crushed Denver too.
5 – Any loss to the Packers when the Vikings are favored. And pretty much any loss to the Lions. Not that the Lions are a rival, it’s just that it’s so unexpected.
4 – Arizona. 18-17 in 2003 to knock the Vikings out of the playoffs. Or any playoff loss in a year when the Vikes clearly aren’t good enough to compete.
3 – Any loss to the Packers when the Packers are the better team. Losing then isn’t surprising, it’s just annoying. As are the Packer fans. Or losing after leading by 10 or more in the third quarter. Or any loss in the second half of the season after starting 6-2 or better.
2 – A regular season loss.
1 – A preseason loss.

I would say that a loss to the Broncos would probably be about a 1.5, not because I’m cheering for Tebow, but because the season is shot anyhow and I’d just as soon see Frazier go. I see no reason to have any confidence in him. The Vikings run defense isn’t as epic as it was a few years ago, but it is still a top-10 run defense giving up only 99.6 YPG, which should slow down the top-ranked Denver running attack. The Vikings should win, even without Adrian Peterson, since their weak and wounded pass defense, (missing both starting corners and ranked 29th), should be capable of rising to the challenge posed by Tebow’s arm, and because the Denver defense simply isn’t as good as many casual observers imagine.

By the way, I always support the NFC North team in the playoffs. Bears, then Packers. I hate the NFC West. I don’t hate the NFC East, but I hate the way the media spends half their coverage on the NFC East and the other half on the rest of the league. And the NFC South still strikes me as a nonentity, the Saints one Super Bowl notwithstanding.

Anyhow, I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s game. You can always judge a player better when you see him play against a team you know well. I do wish Winfield wasn’t on IR; it would be fascinating to see if Denver could run his way or not… I’m betting not, but we won’t be able to find out.

Is the Denver D holding back Tebow?

It astonishes me that it is necessary to walk the doubters through this, but Denver is not winning because it has a great defense. Nor can it be honestly said that Denver’s offense is terrible because Tim Tebow is the starting quarterback. Consider the following facts:

Denver DEF

Points per game: 23.6 (22nd)
Rush yds per game: 120.5 (19th)
Pass yds per game: 234.7 (17th)
Interceptions: 7 (26th)
Fumbles Recovered: 6 (14th)
Sacks: 30 (7th)

Denver OFF

Points per game: 20.1 (21st)
Rush yds per game: 159.7 (1st)
Pass yds per game: 153.1 (31st)
Interceptions: 1 (1st)
Fumbles Lost: 9 (27th)
Sacks given: 16 (10th)

(Note that the NFL ranks sacks given and interceptions by QB rather than by team: Tebow has thrown one while Orton threw eight.)

The astonishing thing isn’t that Denver doesn’t have the league’s best defense, but that it doesn’t even have the league’s worst PASSING offense. What is often overlooked in assessing the Broncos is that in addition to saddling Denver with a low-risk, low-performance passing game, Tebow also provides his team with an EXCELLENT running game. Jacksonville has a much better defense than Denver and an even worse passing game; the primary difference is that Denver gains 40 more rushing yards per game and throws one less interception than the Jaguars. The NFL being a game of inches, that is the difference between 5-1 and 1-5. And given that Tebow rushes for 50.6 yards per game without losing any fumbles and throwing only 0.15 INT per game, it should be fairly obvious that in the case of Denver, the difference is #15.

If Denver’s defense was genuinely as good as everyone keeps saying it is, the Broncos would be the favorites to not only win the AFC West, but would probably have the AFC’s best shot at beating the Packers in the Super Bowl. (Ironically, in light of Tebow’s connection to the First Coast, he would likely have the Jaguars winning the AFC South and playing for home field advantage right now if he was playing with MoJo Drew and the league’s fifth-rated defense instead of a Ravens reject and the league’s 22nd-rated defense.) Tebow isn’t proving a team can win in the NFL with an excellent defense and a caretaker quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over, that was Trent Dilfer and the 2000 Ravens. He is proving instead that a team can win in the NFL with an average defense, a low-risk, low-performance passing game, and the best running game in the league.

The Broncos have the faith

And really, that’s all that matters. In considering whether Tebow can make it as a starting NFL quarterback who doesn’t throw the ball much, I don’t pay any attention to the media. I pay attention to the men who play with him:

“If it ain’t broken, and it ain’t, then don’t fix it,” McGahee told me from San Diego Sunday night. It was a 23-carry, 117-yard day by McGahee, with his 24-yard run in overtime setting up the winning field goal that led to the 16-13 overtime win. Afterward, McGahee said the game had the feel of another close one, and he said to Tebow in the middle of the second half, “Me and you gotta win this game.” And the two men combined to do it, helped by a third-and-11 conversion catch by Decker that was upheld by review on the game-tying drive at the end of the fourth quarter. You know, when Tebow takes over. “It’s cool everybody doubts us,” McGahee said. “Don’t respect us. All we know is, if it’s close at the end, we’re gonna win.”

“If it’s close at the end, we’re gonna win.” That’s the sort of statement that sends chills down opposing coaches’ spines and causes the other team to get tight and choke if they can’t pull away early. It’s the sort of confidence that can’t be taught, but can only be developed as a group over time. Talent always matters, but superior teamwork and willpower can surmount a bigger talent gap than people often credit.

NFL Sunday

Not much to say this week. AD is out, so about all Vikings fans have to hope for is Jared Allen going after the sack record and learning if Christian Ponder can play at this level.

The season is shot, but at least Minnesota parents are still bringing up their children properly. This little girl is not only a true Vikings fan, she’s already well-prepared for the worst life can throw at her.

VPFL Week 12

72 Moundsview Meerkats (7-4-0)
53 RR Redbeards (4-6-1)

66 Macau Marauders (4-6-1)
41 Greenfield Grizzlies (7-4-0)

73 MS Swamp Spartans (6-5-0)
72 GroverBeach Quixotes (4-7-0)

91 Cranberry Rhyneauxs (4-7-0)
62 Bane Sidhe (5-6-0)

52 Green Reverends (6-4-1)
52 Bailout Banksters (6-4-1)

VPFL Week 10

85 Greenfield Grizzlies (7-3-0)
84 Moundsview Meerkats (6-4-0)

69 Bailout Banksters (6-3-1)
61 Macau Marauders (3-6-1)

57 RR Redbeards (4-5-1)
41 GroverBeach Quixotes (4-6-0)

87 MS Swamp Spartans (5-5-0)
56 Cranberry Rhyneauxs (3-7-0)

67 Bane Sidhe (5-5-0)
39 Green Reverends (5-4-1)

Two weeks, zero defensive points. That cost me first place last week; even a mediocre performance would have been enough to win. It was particularly galling since the White Buffalo got THIRTY (30!) out of his Chicago defense. Unbelievable, especially since I picked up KC vs Denver in preference to Chicago vs Detroit.

This week, I have to hope that Nate doesn’t make me regret dropping Denarius Moore after Carson Palmer’s dreadful debut. I really like him as a receiver, but after Campbell got hurt, I figured there wasn’t anyone to throw him the ball.

Mailvox: thinking Tebow through

castricv is skeptical that the Veer can work in the NFL:

Tebow is a great person, a stand up leader, and will always give his all. However, there is no way he is starting for any team past next year and though he may remain as a great backup or a pinch runner/QB, he will never be able to keep pace with the Brees, Brady, Rodgers of the league.

I said much the same thing after watching the Miami game. And I still THINK that’s the case now that the Broncos are 4-1 with Tebow at the helm, compared to 1-4 when starting Orton. (So much for Coach Fox’s ability to correctly calculate his team’s chances to win.) But I’m no longer so certain it can’t keep working in the long term, because there is the possibility of a running-heavy game being very effective for a team in an era when the entire NFL has gone passing-mad for two very important reasons. Turnovers and game time.

The Broncos simply don’t turn the ball over in the Tebow offense. In six games, he has one INT and one fumble lost. That is absolutely huge in the day of the frequent pick-six. Let’s look at the three elite quarterbacks castricv mentioned. Drew Brees has 7 INT 0 FL in the last six games. Brady has 5 INT 1 FL in the same span. So, you have to factor in Tebow’s turnover rate of .333 compared to 1.16 and 1.0. Part of Aaron Rodgers incredible value as a QB comes from his low turnover rate of 0.333, the same as Tebow’s. I think this is an aspect of the position that analysts are leaving out of the equation and helps explain why the Broncos are winning despite everyone’s expectations.

Imagine if the Broncos acquired a very good running back to pair with Tebow, one that can break a stacked box like Adrian Peterson. The quarterback being a runner helps address the stacked box issue because there is an additional blocker. I’m not saying this definitely would work, I’m simply saying that I can imagine that it COULD work. And it has a lot more potential than throwing another mediocre quarterback with a turnover rate of 2+ like Orton out there.

The lack of turnovers is particularly significant since a running team reduces the number of possessions for both teams from 12 to 9. Since the average points scored in a game by one team is 21, the average number of scoring possessions is around 3. (Keeping it simple here.) An average NFL quarterback turns the ball over twice per game, so in normal game he’s got to lead his team on a scoring drive three times out of ten to give it a reasonable chance to win, but three times out of seven when playing Tebow and the Broncos. How many quarterbacks can be expected to score every other drive?

Tebow, on the other hand, only has to generate a scoring drive one out of every three drives. Throw in the field position advantage provided by the nearly two turnover advantage, and you can see why the approach might theoretically work so long as Tebow can continue to avoid turning the ball over. He’ll never be able to keep pace with Brady, Brees, or Rodgers, but then, he doesn’t necessarily have to. Remember, this is not all that different from the approach that Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick used to beat the superior K-Gun offense of the Bills in Super Bowl XXV.

The three things that struck me when watching the final Denver drive to beat the Jets were as follows:

1. Tebow has excellent vision and patience when running the ball. It’s really striking. This makes stopping him much harder than it looks. There must have been four or five times when a Jets defender would have had him if he hadn’t seen the opening and taken it at just the right moment. It also explains why he is so much more effective towards the end of games when the defenders are a little tired and slow.

2. His teammates have his back. Champ Bailey has been the most openly supportive, but after the last touchdown, when Tebow returned to the bench, one of the Denver cornerbacks, Cassius Vaughn, bent down, hugged him, and the microphone caught him telling Tebow “You keep turning it on! We love you, boy.” In the ultimate team sport, this is more meaningful than most spectators understand.

3. The coaches can’t believe what’s happening and really don’t know what to do with him or about him. There were more similarities than differences between the reactions of Fox and Ryan. After the touchdown run, Fox had his hands on his head, happy, but with a look of incredulity on his face. Ryan looked equally incredulous, but totally disgusted too.

But the NFL has to be loving the situation. A mediocre Denver team has somehow become must-see TV for NFL fans around the nation. Not only was the Denver stadium shaking with the chanting of the fans, but I have seldom heard the TV commentators more intrigued with the last five minutes of a 13-10 non-playoff game. They were actually laughing after Tebow scored. The whole drive was so awesome and ugly that I had to watch it twice. Make that three times.

Now, I can’t see it happening. I honestly can’t. I could see Denver winning the AFC West and perhaps even upsetting New England in the playoffs, but I can’t see them beating Pittsburgh or Baltimore. But just for the fun of it, can you imagine how utterly insane it would be, how totally nuclear the sports media would go, if Denver were to face Green Bay in the Super Bowl?

The Miracle of Tebow

I have to admit, despite my unshaken belief that he does not in any way meet the necessary qualifications, I am genuinely enjoying the unlikely career of Tim Tebow, Starting NFL Quarterback:

For most of the night, I was looking for a reason why. Why Mark Sanchez (who, for all his problems, has led the Jets to consecutive AFC Championship games) was getting nothing but shade from Plaxico Burress and hot, angry breath from offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer while Tebow, who was playing quarterback with the grace of an ice-skating Bambi, was getting the undying support of his teammates.

For the answer, go back to 3:55 remaining in the fourth quarter. Tebow, barely bothering to look upfield, cradles the ball and takes off like a Greyhound bus driven by a meth head. There on the horizon, he sees the usually unwelcoming vista that is Revis Island. And what does he do? Does he trot out of bounds and save some clock and spare himself the contact? Nope. He barrels over Revis like a hurricane, stays in bounds, and gets that much closer to the end zone.

That’s why you block for a guy like that. That’s why you run route after useless route and try to save play after broken play. That’s why, if you’re on defense, you are just trying to keep it close, just trying to ding Sanchez up enough to make him jumpy, just trying to frustrate the Jets receiver corps enough to make them give up on their game plan.

Because at the end of the game, it might just be 13-10 and you might just have a shot. You might just be 20 yards out and your quarterback might just be able to run like Mike Alstott. And with the home crowd losing their minds in the thin air, and the terrifying Jets defense on their back foot and everyone in America watching because your very average AFC West team has become the center of the football universe, your quarterback might just do the one thing he was put on Earth to do: make a perfect read on a safety who is overcommitted to the inside and take off with only one destination in mind. He might do what he said he would, what he asked you to believe he could do. He might just win the damn thing for you.

Dr. Pangloss was right. This is the best of all possible worlds. I assumed Tim Tebow would fail as a starter because he is not capable of throwing the ball at an NFL level. This was a basic failure of logic, because as Mr. Tebow has demonstrated, winning in the NFL does not actually require a quarterback successfully throwing the ball. He is literally adding a new dimension to the game, which is not merely interesting, it is awesome.

I love Tebow’s success to date for exactly the same reason I exulted in the failure of Real Madrid’s “galáctico” approach to international football. For those troglodytes who are unaware, a few years back Real Madrid spent umpty gazillion euros doing the equivalent of starting Peyton Manning (Zizou), Tom Brady (Luis Figo) and Drew Brees (David Beckham) in the same backfield, in addition to acquiring the best English striker (Michael Owen) to pair with the best Brazilian striker (Ronaldo), backed up by the best young Spanish striker (Raul). They spent $210 million just to acquire the rights to FOUR players. Everyone – and I mean almost everyone in Europe except me – assumed that Real would dominate the La Liga as well as the Champion’s League for years.

They won three titles, all of them before Beckham and Owen arrived. This compares to the four they had won in the six years that preceded the galáctico era. It was a complete failure and remains a proverbial example of the limitations of pure talent in team sports.

I still find it incredibly hard to imagine a Tebow-led NFL team winning the Super Bowl. But at this point, I can’t count it out entirely, because Tebow is all about the team rather than the talent. And that is as awesome and inspiring as it is amusing.