Tag: Russia

Russia’s Warning

Russia hit Ukraine with an ICBM containing multiple conventional warheads in response to the long-range strikes by the USA and the UK on its territory. The message is clear: next time, these might not be conventional warheads and they might not be hitting Ukraine.

However, the willingness of the Clown World leaders to risk nuclear war does tend to suggest that Big Bear and the other nuclear skeptics might be correct. What if they’re not crazy, they’re simply willing to blow the cover off the official story and allow the world to discover the nonexistence of nuclear weapons? That’s what Occam’s Razor would suggest, anyhow.

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Germany Suicides Even Harder

It’s very, very difficult to imagine what the NATO mouthpieces currently pretending to run Germany think they’re going to accomplish by threatening to suicide Germany even harder by throwing its young men and women on the same altar they’ve sacrificed the German economy:

Now Germany reveals plans to mobilise national defence and 800,000 NATO troops after Kremlin nuke threat – as US announces new weapon Kyiv can use to stop Russia after allowing long-range missile strikes.

Ukraine’s strike on an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region yesterday with US-supplied ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) meets these criteria, with Moscow saying that it marks a ‘new phase of the Western war’. ‘This is, of course, a signal that they want to escalate,’ Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said, while foreign intelligence chief Sergei Naryshkin said attempts by NATO countries to facilitate Ukrainian missile strikes deep inside Russia ‘would not go unpunished’.

In Eastern Ukraine, Russia’s forces are steadily grinding towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk having taken large swathes of territory in the Donetsk region in recent months. Putin’s army took 185 square miles of Ukrainian territory in October, a record since the first weeks of the conflict in March 2022, according to an analysis of data provided by the real-time conflict tracker from the Institute for the Study of War.

Now, where are those “800,000 NATO troops” going to come from? Not Poland, the Scandinavian countries or the Baltics. They’re talking about US troops, mostly, but there is no way President Trump is going to send more US troops to Germany; he’s far more likely to withdraw all the troops that are already there.

Simplicius points out that the IMF, the World Bank, and the CIA have now all confirmed that Russia is decisively winning its war with NATO and its member states on economic terms as well as in the military context.

A couple months back, you may recall World Bank announced that as per their calculations, Russia had finally surpassed both Germany and Japan in GDP PPP. However, the official IMF and CIA figures still scoffed at this, with Russia trailing both countries on their counts. This allowed the popular narrative to be maintained that the World Bank figures were some kind of inaccurate fluke or anomaly.

Well, the IMF has just done their latest report and has officially concluded that Russia has blown past both Germany and Japan as of 2024, and is now the number four economy in the world. And not only that, but the IMF has Russia in the lead by an even larger margin than World Bank. On top of which, the CIA also updated their numbers and likewise reflects Russia at the number four position.

This means that the longer Germany persists in its futile denial of the need to stop supporting Ukraine and encourage it to surrender, the worse off the Germans and the other Europeans will be. Time, attrition, and economics are all on the side of the Russians, and more importantly, their allies in China, North Korea, and Iran.

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The NYT Throws in the Towel

It appears this “permission” granted to Ukraine for long-range strikes with US and UK missiles, which would seemingly necessitate US providing the satellite targeting data for the attacks, is little more than another lame negotiating ploy. Clown World clearly recognizes that it has lost the war, and is now simply trying to look strong in order to encourage Russia to settle for less than it might otherwise gain, as Simplicius breaks down a recent New York Times article.

The NYT piece is remarkable in its admissions. It says that Trump forcing Ukraine to give up land would look like a major defeat of the West, but no matter—the author writes it is necessary because Ukraine is being devastated and Putin has no reason to stop; finally reality dawns on them!

Despite flashes of spectacular success by Ukrainian forces, the Russian position has gradually strengthened, and there is no reason to expect Mr. Putin to lose the upper hand now. That may sound like defeatism, but it’s also realism. I believe it’s right to call Ukraine a proxy war, because I think it’s reasonable to conclude that the Biden administration has supported the war not only in deference to righteous Ukrainian determination to fight off Russia but also because the war was a chance to debilitate our enemy without directly engaging it. Now another cold winter bears down, and Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure is so bomb-wrecked that people are expected to endure daily blackouts of up to 20 hours through the dark and bitter months.

This bleak landscape contains the most extreme and tragic results of the power games that have been played out mercilessly on Ukrainian soil by greater powers. Both Russia and the United States have for decades exploited Ukraine’s internal divisions to undermine each other and jockey for regional influence, usually at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians.

The even bigger admission is the now naked truth that the war is in fact a proxy war, spurred on by NATO and the West. For the first time, MSM makes headway in acknowledging the West’s participation in the Ukraine’s exploitation, even if only by a halfway measure. The author even goes on to admit the Bush administration heavily backed the Orange Revolution of 2004, “shower[ing] the pro-Western groups with funding and training.”

This doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians won’t fire a few long-range missiles with US – or more likely, UK – assistance, probably at the Kursk pocket where the last vestiges of Ukraine’s best troops are being systematically eliminated in a vain attempt to hold on to some Russian territory as negotiating leverage. But Russia has sent a very clear signal that the time to surrender is now, as for the first time, it is striking hard at the electrical system that permits Western Europe to provide Ukraine with emergency electricity.

It finally happened—our questions on Russia and Putin’s resoluteness have been answered. After a nearly two-month hiatus of major long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia struck back again last night with what’s again being called one of the largest strikes of the war, which not only reportedly utilized a fleet of 16 Tu-95s, but according to some sources even a wing of Tu-160s for the first time.

Protocol would have it that more systematic strikes like this would follow, weekly or so, for the winter campaign. Russian ISR would spend some time doing damage assessments then continue levying strikes on the areas which need further degrading.

Continuing the war at this point is simply irresponsible by any military perspective. The European governments that supported it have collapsed, the economies of the European governments that supported it are contracting – Volkswagen just closed three of its factories in Germany – and Russia is stronger in economic, political, military, and diplomatic terms than it was when the special military operation began. No amount of brave rhetoric or esoteric word magic is going to salvage anything positive from what was always a spectacularly stupid idea.

The age of the US military empire is over. It’s time to shut down the bases and bring home the troops to defend the borders and begin the mass repatriations that are so long-overdue. A nation that recognizes its imperial sell-by date and gives up its ambitions can still survive and thrive as a kingdom. See: Persia and Russia. An empire that refuses to admit that it is done eventually ends up being overrun by its former dominions. See: Great Britain.

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Clown World Wants WWIII

And they’ve only got two months to start it. But they’re definitely going to try.

President Joe Biden has lifted that ban on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles meaning the war-torn country can now strike deep inside Russia, sources say. The decision is a major US policy shift and comes as Biden is about to leave office and President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.

Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, according to sources. The first deep strikes are reportedly likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles.

Biden allowing Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces to use US-supplied missiles for strikes deep into Russia has raised expectations for the UK to follow suit with its Storm Shadow missiles.

Putin has been clear that Russia will strike back against any nation that helps Ukraine fire missiles against it. One hopes the Russian response will be reasonably proportional, because these are acts of war that would justify anything, up to and including strikes on every US base in Europe.

This is why it was so important for Donald Trump to win the election. Imagine if these lunatics had four more years to operate.

UPDATE: Clearly Team Trump recognizes the gambit being played.

US President-elect Donald Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., lashed out at the Democrats following reports that ongoing President Joe Biden had allowed Ukraine to use American-made long-range missiles to strike internationally recognized Russian territory.

Trump Jr., who campaigned alongside his father during the 2024 presidential election and has been helping him pick members of his future cabinet, did not mince words on social media.

“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” he wrote on X on Sunday. “Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!”

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The End of the Aircraft Carrier

World War II marked the end of the battleship. World War III is marking the end of the aircraft carrier:

Both of Britain’s aircraft carriers, which are said to serve as the backbone of the Royal Navy, would have major battlefield vulnerabilities in a potential conflict with a near-peer adversary, The Times reported on Friday, citing sources.

A defense source told the paper that the UK military had run a “whole load of scenarios” simulating a full-scale conflict, in which the navy’s “ability to survive” was tested against an “overwhelming force.” The war games, the details of which are secret, involved HMS Queen Elizabeth – the fleet’s current flagship – and HMS Prince of Wales, which were commissioned in 2017 and 2019, respectively.

Designed to project UK power across the globe, both vessels can carry up to 40 aircraft, including advanced F-35B Lightning II stealth fighters, and can host helicopters for anti-submarine warfare as well as troop transports. A Times source familiar with the situation admitted that “in most war games, the carriers get sunk,” adding that the ships are particularly vulnerable to missiles.

It’s interesting that Russia still hasn’t demonstrated its objections to British support and funding for Ukraine by sinking one of these white elephants. Whereas sinking a US Navy carrier would provoke an unnecessary hot war with the USA, what is Britain going to do? Send the other one to the Baltic? And further support for Ukraine isn’t a threat since it’s already provided its long-range missiles to Russia.

This development has been obvious for some time, but it’s fascinating to actually reach this point in history. It will also be interesting to see if any carriers are actually sunk or if the navies of the world will simply stop producing new ships and maintaining the existing ones.

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Zelensky on the Way Out

Simplicius notes that the mainstream Narrative is now preparing the ground for the removal of Zelensky as the puppet-in-chief of the Kiev regime.

Just a day after we wrote about the ‘rumored’ new plan for the US to hold Ukrainian elections next year to give intransigent Zelensky the boot, The Economist made it semi-official by acknowledging that, ‘suddenly’, Zelensky is facing a ‘power struggle’ at home. It’s in line with how Biden’s advanced dementia was just “abruptly” discovered by figures and organs of the establishment, only after becoming convenient and politically expedient enough for them to make it public. Similarly here, as soon as the memo-from-above’s arrival, The Economist sprang into pre-conditioning the ground to sell the narrative that Zelensky’s regime is now on uncertain footing; they would have never been allowed to even suggest that Zelensky faced danger at home until it became necessary to do so…

A ‘dignified bow out’ just like the same establishment forces asked of Zelensky’s fateful partner-in-crime Joe Biden. Remember, it’s either the “easy way” or the “hard way”, as Pelosi said; the same stands for Zelensky. Take your free trip to Tel Aviv or we can begin raising the level of ‘encouragement’. After all, recall Zaluzhny was directed to step down from his role as general for a long time, and it was only after his direct subordinates began to be assassinated did he heed the warning and do as he was told.

Sooner or later, every ticket-taker ceases to be useful and is thrown from the high horse.

One of the best reasons to follow the alternative media, in either blog or video form, is that you will reliably have some idea what is going on long before the mainstream media is allowed to cover it. Biden’s dementia was recognized and discussed in the alternative media long before the mainstream journalists dared to observe the obvious, and in like manner, the inevitable outcome of the war in Ukraine was pointed out more than two years before the media stopped blathering about Russia running out of men and ammunition in two weeks, or a popular groundswell driving President Putin from power.

Isn’t it informative how a single defeat or embarrassment is supposedly sufficient to force someone the media hates out of office, but 32 straight months of one defeat after another have proved insufficient to destabilize media favorite Zelensky’s position despite his cancellation of elections and present illegitimate status?

Anyhow, now that Clown World’s favor has officially been withdrawn from their puppet in Kiev, it’s only a matter of time before he is removed from the scene one way or another. This will be the sign that negotiations with Russia to end the special military operation are being pursued; whether Russia is feeling magnanimous in victory or not is another matter entirely.

And it’s no wonder that the Europeans are all panicking about Trump’s election. Russia is making it clear that its demands will include the withdrawal of NATO to the German border, and Trump will know that’s a good deal that’s worth taking.

The Kremlin is again saying that Russia is only interested in those negotiations that will ensure the fulfillment of all tasks in the context of Ukraine and Ryabkov’s 2021 ultimatum about NATO’s withdrawal to the border of Germany. Everything else is of no concern, as is the change of faces in the White House. There will be no deal.

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Nukes are Not the Problem

The strategery at NATO is beyond merely stupid.

NATO forces would already be on the ground in Ukraine fighting Russian troops if it weren’t for Moscow’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, the outgoing chief of the US-led bloc’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, has said.

Speaking on Sunday during a defense summit in the Czech Republic, Bauer recalled NATO’s past experience of taking part in conflicts in Afghanistan and in Iraq. He noted that fighting Russia in Ukraine would, however, be “not the same” as fighting in Afghanistan because the Taliban militants did not possess nuclear weapons.

“I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out,” the admiral suggested.

The admiral appears to have forgotten that NATO lost the war in Afghanistan and fled “the graveyard of empires” with alacrity. With or without nukes, NATO is going to lose any war or proxy war with Russia. At this point, US admirals would be wiser to forget both Russia and China focus their attention on how to avoid losing the naval war with the Yemenis as well as the coming conflict with the Mexican cartels.

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The Plan is the Prediction

Time to lay off the hopium and address the utter retardery of what may, or may not, be the incoming Trump administration’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine.

Trump’s team has begun discussing a new plan to end the conflict in Ukraine, — WSJ

▪️The agreement includes several points: they want to oblige Kyiv to refuse to join NATO for decades, and freeze the front line and create a demilitarized zone.

▪️It is not known who will ensure its security, but one source ruled out the involvement of US and UN troops: “We will not send Americans to maintain peace in Ukraine. And we will not pay for it. Ask the Poles, Germans, English and French to do it.”

▪️Ukraine will also continue to receive weapons and military training assistance from the US

This would appear to be absurd on its face. There is no reason for Russia to agree to any front-line freezing action when the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing. The situation is not what it was back when Trump first declared that he could end the war in a single day; US threats to escalate are empty in the face of Russia’s preparations for any further escalation, including a direct war between Russia and the USA.

Going hot means the USA not only loses Ukraine, but likely Israel, Taiwan, Japan, and possibly South Korea as well. China is content to bide its time as long as things stay more or less calm, but it will almost certainly make its move to achieve its regional goals as soon as the US military is fully committed to a front outside of Asia. Remember, the USA no longer possesses the ability to fight two simultaneous wars against regional powers.

The only certain plan for peace is an unconditional Ukrainian surrender. This will require a regime change in Kiev, which almost certainly necessitates a complete withdrawal of support for the insane and illegitimate regime. Fortunately, there is a very good chance this will take place early in the new year, despite what Trump and Musk said to Zelensky in their telephone call. Certainly, the European Union is expecting US support to be withdrawn in the near future.

European Union leaders are discussing whether they can afford to keep financing the Ukrainian military if US President-elect Donald Trump decides to pull Washington’s support for Kiev, Bloomberg reported on Friday. At a meeting in Budapest on Thursday, EU officials “held discussions on whether the bloc will be ready to foot the bill for the war,” the American news outlet reported, paraphrasing anonymous sources. According to one of these sources, the “big concern is that Trump will seek to shift the financial burden on Europe.” Trump repeatedly promised on the campaign trail to end the conflict within “24 hours,” but offered few specifics as to how he would achieve this. However, he said on numerous occasions that Washington’s European allies would have to “pay up” if they want to keep fighting, and reportedly plans on leaving the Europeans to pay for and enforce any post-conflict security arrangement.

For those people who still ride the high from the election win for MAGA, I’ll pour some cold water on their expectations. Trump cannot stop anything in 404 no matter how he tries, or whatever hollow outward PR effects he may employ, what he wants is to freeze SMO and then put the burden of supporting 404 on Europe’s shoulders. That’s the plan. It is stupid, almost childish plan, but half of it may still work–that is making EU pay for 404. And here we have to understand one very important fact–it was EU which played a crucial role in unleashing the mayhem on Maidan in 2013 and then lied to Russian face during Minsk Accords. EU doesn’t have capability and capacity to really aid 404–NATO has been largely demilitarized.

The European leaders are arguably more deranged than Kiev’s. They have no real armies, very little war material, and no significant industrial capacity. Their militaries are little more than police forces meant to intimidate their own citizens and keep them in line. There is absolutely nothing they can do to deter Russia in any way; their feeble attempt to exert their economic power backfired brutally and now their economies are collapsing along with their governments. It’s not 1950 anymore, it’s not even 1990, and the balance of global power has shifted from West to East.

No doubt Clown World will attempt to coopt the Germans into volunteering for playing the role of Ukraine 2; the new German Finance Minister is a Blackrock creature. But no matter how cowed, shamed, denationalized, and vaxxed the Germans are, they’re not going to sign up for a third war with Russia in just over a century. Not only do the Germans already know from bitter experience how it would inevitably end, but they’ve seen how badly the people of Ukraine have suffered in seeing their men needlessly sacrificed to the Russian war machine in service to Clown World’s wicked goals.

The good thing is that the Trump plan for Ukraine, whatever it actually turns out to be, will give us a very clear indicator of whether we’re going to see the ascendance of the God-Emperor and total war on Clown World or just the return of Zion Don and four more years of watching him be played like a fiddle by the neocons again as the West continues its descent into political collapse and post-civilized barbarism.

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The Math of Attrition

Regardless of whom the Script dictates “wins” the US presidential “election” on Tuesday, or whenever the results are announced after the media has finished massaging the numbers we are supposed to take seriously, the financing for the Ukrainian war effort must be stopped immediately on humanitarian grounds. It was always inevitable and obvious that Ukraine was going to lose the war, the only question was whether it was going to give up a) Crimea, b) Crimea and the Donbas republics, c) Crimea, the Donbas republics, Odessa and everything east of the Dnieper, or d) all of Ukraine.

We’re already at (c) insofar as Russia has the ability to take it and/or demand it in the terms it requires for Ukraine’s surrender. The only question is if it is necessary for Ukraine to lose another 100,000+ lives and risk (d) before accepting the inevitable. For, as Simplicius calculates the attritional math, even if Zelensky is permitted to throw the young men and women of Ukraine into the Russian abattoir, it is not going to recover one single square meter of former Ukrainian land.

Using using all the above figures, if we know that total monthly mobilization is somewhere around 15,000 to 20,000 as per several independent reports. The wording he uses is a little odd: “one and a half times less”. But if we are to assume this is the same as “one and a half times greater” than the mobilization number, then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 22.5k and 30k monthly losses. This would be 750 to 1,000 losses per day… Recently, Ukrainian journalists again reported that over 100,000 have already deserted the AFU with the number now 380 desertions per day:

In general, it’s hard to imagine the AFU surviving such attrition rates for longer than 6 months. If they are recruiting 20k but losing 30k, that means the entire armed forces is essentially losing a net 10k men per month. In only 6 months that would be 10k x 6 = 60k, which would represent roughly one major city-front area, like a Bakhmut or Avdeevka. At 12 months it would be 120k, representing an entire front-region, like Zaporozhye, or the entire Donetsk front, etc. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon has now said Ukraine only has 6-12 months of troops left?

Remember, the same sources say Russia not only breaks even, but is gaining a net positive manpower per month, building new strength and brigades. If there’s any truth to both sides of those numbers, then it would not be physically possible for the AFU to survive past 6 months or so. Please note, all the above numbers and reports I presented on the AFU are from original Ukrainian sources like the Aidar commander—no speculation whatsoever.

However, recall that Zelensky still has a final trump card, which is lowering the mobilization age to 18-20. This could immediately buy him more time, but it could also bring some kind of revolt or social uprising in the country. It’s a risky move but it would obviously give Ukraine hundreds of thousands of more men, that could buy another year or so at the most.

War = math + manufacturing + morale. And Russia clearly has the comprehensive advantage of all three. There is no scenario, no plan of intervention, no rhetorical flurry, that is capable of significantly changing that without being countered and neutralized. Therefore, any continuation of this reprehensibly stupid attempt to prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving his objectives and ending the Special Military Operation is inhumane, immoral, and objectively wicked.

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