Tag: politics

Both Fidesz and Jobbik outperform expectations in Hungary:

8 million Hungarians went to the polls to elect a 199-seat parliament in the 2018 general elections, which many expected would see the incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán- and his right-wing Fidesz party – win his third consecutive term. And, as covered here on numerous prior occasions, Orban’s campaign had been centered around anti-immigration policies, an especially sensitive topic not only in Hungary and Central Europe, but across the old continent.

His main competitors are Gergely Karacsony, a candidate for the Socialist and Dialogue parties; and Gabor Vona of the far-right nationalist Jobbik party, or rather were because according to the Hungarian election office website, Prime Minister Orban’s ruling Fidesz party has won a sweeping, landslide victory according to preliminary results with 69{3f291be52f3892c625db69bf603a5e6e4e8a242d20ba3e933d9d39378ad5a5d2} of the votes counted.

• Fidesz with 49.5{3f291be52f3892c625db69bf603a5e6e4e8a242d20ba3e933d9d39378ad5a5d2} of party-list votes, matching most pre-election opinion polls
• Formerly far-right Jobbik second with 20{3f291be52f3892c625db69bf603a5e6e4e8a242d20ba3e933d9d39378ad5a5d2} of list votes, Socialists at 11.9{3f291be52f3892c625db69bf603a5e6e4e8a242d20ba3e933d9d39378ad5a5d2}
• LMP and DK parties also poised to clear parliamentary threshold based on partial count

In other words, Orbán’s Fidesz party has secured an absolute majority, and may even reach as much as a two-thirds majority of 133 seats, enough to pursue a constitutional amendment, making life for George Soros in Hungary even more unbearable.

Can Jobbik really be called “far-right” or “extreme” when it has nearly twice the electoral support as the Socialists?

This is what the Right needs to be doing throughout the West. Embrace nationalism. Reject immigration. It’s not that hard and it will be successful, because everyone can see that the neo-liberal world order has failed, that immigration is dreadfully destructive of both the economy and the society, and that those who are pushing the globalist vision of one race, one world, one government are literally and materially evil.

Orban’s strong win could boost other right-wing nationalists in Central Europe, in Poland and in neighboring Austria, and expose cracks in the 28-nation EU.

Of course it will. Nationalism is rising and the Alt-Right is inevitable, because the truth cannot be obscured indefinitely. Communism has failed. Socialism has failed. Neo-liberalism has failed. Conservatism has failed. Constitutionalism has failed. Civic Nationalism has failed. Multiculturalism has failed. Feminism has failed. Globalism has failed. Once the impossible has been eliminated, what remains, however improbable or unpleasant, must be the truth.

Notice that all of the alternatives are lies, knowingly and consciously told for the purpose of deception. That is not an accident or a coincidence.

It’s really not hard to figure out. No one believes anything the media says anymore.

It’s not surprising that after little more than a year in office many people who voted for a president still support him. But it’s also surprising that a president who has been the object of more negative reporting than any in our history still enjoys something like the same middling base of support he had before taking office. Unless it’s the negative reporting that is the problem, which I suspect is very largely the case. You can only ask adults to participate in the fiction that a retweet of a wrestling GIF is a credible threat of violence against some nerd reporters at a cable station or delight in what you hope will be the failure of American trade policy before they decide to tune you out. Very largely this had already happened by Inauguration Day, but now the work of MSNBC and The New York Times and PolitiFact is complete. Millions of Americans do not know the difference between what is true and what is false and have decided that they do not much care either.

There was, I like fondly to imagine, a different course that might have been taken here. It is just possible, I suppose, that members of my profession could have exercised their reasoning faculties to decide what in the administration was good, what was bad, what was unremarkable or indistinguishable from what any modern president would do, what was painfully idiotic, what was, perhaps, evil. We chose not to exercise this responsibility. Instead we decided to indulge in our live-action roleplaying fantasies about being brave selfless journos taking on a mean demagogue because we love the Constitution so much.

The morons in the media may have the memory of goldfish, but those of us who still remember how they said Bill Clinton getting it on with an intern in the Oval Office was no big deal aren’t inclined to take their solemn declarations that the God-Emperor banging the occasional Playmate or porn star more than a decade ago is an imminent threat to the Constitution.

The media killed its own credibility. Now they are Fake News and everyone knows it, even those who pretend to believe them. As Glenn Reynolds says, their chief occupation is now deciding what facts they are going to try to hide from the American people.

The God-Emperor continues to be more popular with the US electorate than Obama ever was.

President Donald Trump’s approval rating hit 50 percent in Rasmussen’s daily presidential tracking poll Monday, which puts him ahead of his predecessor at the same point in the presidency. The last time Trump hit 50 percent in the Rasmussen tracking poll was February 27. At the time, he was generally within the 47-50 percent range. The President’s approval rating outpaces that of former President Barack Obama, who sat at 46 percent in Rasmussen’s tracking poll on April 2, 2010.

But the more important thing about Trump’s persistent popularity is the way this reveals the increasingly limited ability of the US media to influence the way the American people think. They are throwing literally everything and the kitchen sink at this man and yet none of it sticks to him.

At this point, he could go down to the border, personally machine gun invading immigrants, and his popularity would increase 10 percent. The Stormy Daniels affair reveals that we have reached the point of negative returns for media hit pieces on the president.

The Washington Post is complaining that Trump is becoming increasingly hardline on immigration.

President Trump’s sharp shift in tone on immigration this week from would-be dealmaker back to the hard-line stance he campaigned on comes amid signs that some of his conservative base is growing impatient for him to fulfill promises on the border wall and other measures to crack down on illegal immigration.

Over the past two days, Trump has issued declarations on Twitter that shut the door on a legislative deal to protect young undocumented immigrants from deportation, blamed Democrats for the failure, demanded the Mexican government take stronger action to close the border, and conflated a refu­gee crisis from Central America with the Obama-era deferred-action program that Trump ended in the fall.

Here is hoping that we will see truly hardline policies put in place soon. His conservative base is right. It is time to send them back and build the wall.

Science is gradually confirming his amygdala-based theory of politics:

Psychologists conducted brain scans on a total of 93 adults (first they studied 48 Caucasian adults, 58{e4703c56c4188c228685943b148064279a37085e2b6bbaf4ff431841da5c8102} of whom were female, and then replicated the effects with 45 adults from diverse ethnic backgrounds, 67{e4703c56c4188c228685943b148064279a37085e2b6bbaf4ff431841da5c8102} of whom were female) and found that the size of the bilateral amygdala, which governs emotions, survival instincts, and memory, was strongly correlated with support for the existing social order.

This mindset is known as “system justification,” and is highly correlated with conservatism, says Jay Van Bavel, professor of psychology and neural science at New York University. “A system-justifying psychological orientation favours the social, economic, and political status quo, and may promote vigilance to social hierarchy and a preference for ideologies that characterize extant inequality as legitimate and necessary,” explain the authors in the paper, published in December in Nature Human Behavior. The study evaluated this by the system justification scale, which poses questions such as, “In general, you find society to be fair,” and “Everyone has a fair shot at wealth and happiness.”

Earlier research (notably one paper co-authored by the actor Colin Firth) found a link between conservatism and the volume of the right amygdala, with higher volume linked to conservatism. Van Bavel says his research found that system justification, more than specific political ideology or the tendency to legitimize economic inequality under capitalism, was the strongest indicator of variations in the size of the amygdala.

The authors followed up with 20 participants and found that those with larger amygdalas were less likely to take part in protests. “Although the sample size was small, this link between amygdala volume and protest behaviour provides initial evidence that the amygdala may not only be related to beliefs about society but also willingness to take action to change certain aspects of the social system,” note the authors.

This is why you simply cannot fix SJWs. It’s no more possible than trying to make them taller, or smarter. Their shrunken, tiny little brains are the problem.

It looks like some of the damning information is beginning to leak out to the press:

Newly uncovered text messages between FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page suggest a possible coordination between high-ranking officials at the Obama White House, CIA, FBI, Justice Department and former Senate Democratic leadership in the early stages of the investigation into alleged collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, according to GOP congressional investigators on Wednesday.

The investigators say the information provided to Fox News “strongly” suggests coordination between former President Barack Obama’s Chief of Staff Denis McDonough, then-Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, and CIA Director John Brennan — which they say would “contradict” the Obama administration’s public stance about its hand in the process.

There will be far more than this coming to light. But just this would be enough to land some very high-ranking government officials – and former government officials – in prison.

Or so we are told. But it sounds credible enough. Notice who rushed to convince Trump not to veto it: Pence, Short, Mattis, Ryan, and McConnell. Remember that when things start getting interesting.

Immigration seemed to frustrate Trump the most. He secured $1.6 billion for some fencing and levees on the border; it comes with strings attached and the amount fell far short of the $25 billion requested for a wall. He was also eager to blame Democrats for the failure to reach a deal to protect dreamers by coming up with an alternative to the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) that he ended last year.

Even Friday morning, Trump asked aides how he could still get more money for the border wall and whether some of the items that Democrats celebrated were in the bill — such as money for what are known as sanctuary cities and Planned Parenthood — were really included in the package, according to people familiar with the discussions who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity.

He was told that it was unlikely he could get more wall funding and that Democrats did secure the items they were touting. He grew angry. So, shortly before 9 a.m., Trump took to Twitter.

“I am considering a VETO of the Omnibus Spending Bill based on the fact that the 800,000 plus DACA recipients have been totally abandoned by the Democrats (not even mentioned in Bill) and the BORDER WALL, which is desperately needed for our National Defense, is not fully funded,” Trump tweeted.

Inside the White House, senior officials such as Vice President Pence, legislative director Marc Short and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis were summoned to persuade the president to sign the bill and avoid a shutdown.

Mattis stressed that the Pentagon desperately needed the funding boost — a $66 billion increase over last year’s levels — that the bill would provide. Aides told Trump it would be “historic” funding, a word that he likes to hear.

Short argued that the funding package would give the president money for immigration and infrastructure programs and that the White House had already committed to signing the bill. Trump was given a list of all the planes, submarines and other military equipment the bill would fund, a list the president would rattle off later in his hastily organized appearance in the White House’s Diplomatic Reception Room.

 House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) made his own pitch, calling the president about 30 minutes after the veto threat. Trump continued to say the bill was terrible, but Ryan again touted benefits for the military. McConnell (R-Ky.) called Chief of Staff John F. Kelly, two White House aides said, to keep tabs on the situation.

For future reference. Perhaps they are right. Perhaps they are not. Only time will tell. But at least we will have a public record of whose analysis was correct and whose was not.

The Audacious Epigone:

The day the Trump presidency died

So bye, bye MAGA dream in the sky:

This is probably the beginning of the end of Trump’s presidency. The midterms are shaping up to be a bloodbath. The markets now put the odds of Democrats re-taking the House at 68{e1e765f6645cfe4995202f72094ad9c88a5cb669127c8020c4b88ace2386bb53}. The odds of Democrats gaining control of the Senate is 40{e1e765f6645cfe4995202f72094ad9c88a5cb669127c8020c4b88ace2386bb53}, an astoundingly high figure given Democrats are defending 25 of their seats–more than half–while Republicans are defending just eight of their own.

The last two years of Trump’s term will be one of perpetual Russia, Russia!, RUSSIA!! and impeachment proceedings initiated by a Democrat congress riding its “blue wave”, while pusillanimous Republicans meekly position themselves in various ways in opposition to the isolated president.

John Derbyshire

This budget bill is, in short, a middle finger to President Trump. Its larger message: populism is no match for the Deep State. The contest is an unequal one. It’s almost cruel the way the congresscritters—Chuck Ryan and Paul Schumer, Nancy McConnell and Mitch Pelosi—it’s almost cruel the way they are grinning and chuckling and high-fiving among themselves over how easy it’s been to kick sand in the President’s face.

I’m afraid we can now see that the populist victories of two years ago that filled us with so much hope were in fact a false dawn, a mirage. For all its spirit and vigor and successes, the populist movement is amateurish and uncoordinated. It’s no match for the seasoned, hardened operatives of the Deep State, with their decades of experience at gaming Western democratic systems.

Who else merits quoting? There is no need to quote Never Trumpers like Jonah Goldberg and Ben Shapiro. And the Z-man already publicly abandoned the Trump Train and disowned the God-Emperor, so quoting him would be redundant.

I’m half-amused and half-appalled by all the people declaring themselves off the Trump Train over the signing of the omnibus bill and the bump stock ban. What part of “two steps forward, one step back” do you not understand? What part of “lose the battle but win the war” escapes you? Are you Spartan or potter?

No one has claimed the God-Emperor is perfect. Indeed, as I have repeatedly pointed out, one of his best traits is his ability to admit his mistakes and learn from them. No one is claiming that these moves were intentional 12D underwater chess tactics, as he is clearly dealing with a frontal attack from the Democrat-Republicans in both the House and Senate as well as a number of hidden attacks to his flanks and rear from the Deep State.

Do you really think it is a coincidence that the Playboy and porn star stories are front and center on every media outlet while his daughter-in-law is divorcing his son, Theresa May is trying to start a war with Russia, and the stock market is undergoing daily 400-point swings? Do you seriously believe these things are not related to the God-Emperor taking the scalps of the #1 and #2 at the FBI, firing his Secretary of State, and the recent revelations about Facebook?

And do you not understand what these things represent on the Deep State’s part? They represent desperation. They represent fear. They represent real change and they are the early signs of something important. I thought James Woods put it well in response to ex-CIA director John Brennan’s open threats to the President.

You couldn’t get a toothpick up this guy’s ass with a pound of Vaseline right now. You’re next, swamp rat.

Ask yourself this: why are they behaving in this fashion? It isn’t because they control the God-Emperor. It isn’t because they have broken him. It is because they are afraid of him and what he is in the process of doing.

If you’re off the Trump Train, so be it. Supporting the man is psychologically arduous, because it requires constantly resisting the social pressure to submit to the media narrative. I had my own moment of doubt, not about the God-Emperor, but his Grand Inquisitor, back in July because I could not see what Jeff Sessions was doing or understand why he seemed to be focused entirely on something that I thought was irrelevant. It subsequently turned out that he was not. Of course, the human mind being the self-deceiving instrument that it is, I actually had to look up whatever it was that had me so frustrated with the guy who has methodically taken out one after another of the Deep State’s most strategically situated tools.

In my opinion, the God-Emperor has more than earned our continued confidence, even if he makes mistakes and missteps that are much bigger than simply signing an inevitable bill or allowing an enemy Congress its head. If you don’t have that confidence in the man any longer, then you don’t. So be it; these things are what they are. I’m certainly not going to criticize anyone for it, just as I refused to criticize Scott Adams when he lost his confidence in October 2016. You are free to disembark the train at any time and quietly despair. The rest of us, the God-Emperor’s 300, will fight in the shade.

Democrats to the left. Republicans to the other left.
No friends, no allies, and the Deep State rising.
The God-Emperor stands alone but for his 300.

We may win. We may not.
We will not despair and we will not stop.
Trumpslide 2020!

Spartans, what is your profession?

What, exactly, is the point of it anyhow?

President Donald Trump said he signed the $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill into law Friday, despite a veto threat and provisions he says he is “unhappy” about.

The president approved the legislation to fund the government through September for national security reasons, as it authorizes a major increase in military spending that the president supports. Trump criticized the rushed process to pass the more than 2,200-page bill released only Wednesday, saying he would “never sign another bill like this again.”

“As a matter of national security, I’ve signed this omnibus bill,” Trump said at the White House on Friday.

I’m not going to even pretend to try to understand this one. No one cares about politicians or presidents professing to be “unhappy” or vowing that they won’t do what they literally just did again again. Hearing a president say he’ll never sign another spending bill is like hearing a crack addict vow that he’ll never smoke another rock or a serial adulterer promising future faithfulness.

Now, I don’t blame Trump for the spending bill. He didn’t push it. This is on the House Republicans and Paul Ryan, not him. But I will blame him for not forcing Congress to override his veto. Apparently not even President Trump understands that no one buys the “a matter of national security” bullshit anymore.

I’ve never been more proud to not be a Republican.

UPDATE: Look, it’s a mistake. It’s not a betrayal. The winning was NEVER going to be unanimous or uninterrupted. Don’t be like the conservatives and leap to embrace defeat as inevitable simply because ONE battle was unnecessarily lost. Or in this case, unnecessarily lost sooner than it would have been; Trump may have known that the Democrat-Republicans had the necessary votes to override his veto and decided not to waste his time fighting an unwinnable battle.

I think he should have for the sake of morale, but it’s not my call. Regardless, this is not the primary front. That’s my take on it. Be frustrated, be angry, but do not despair and do not give up.

It’s always so cute when conservatives discover the existence of the bi-factional ruling party and threaten to stop voting for Republicans. Jesse Kelly is very upset about the passage of the omnibus spending bill on Twitter:

This is the first time I’ve thought the GOP will lose the House in the midterms. If Trump signs this #omnibus bill, we’re through. I suspect Trump does not realize how many people have tolerated his antics solely because he was doing conservative things.

Think about this: Obama gets elected in 08. Embarrasses himself and scares the American public into going HEAVY Republican for 6 straight years. We own everything.

Annnnnnd the GOP responds by doing all the same things Obama did. There is one party in DC. It’s the “screw the peasants” party. And I’ve had about enough of it. That’s all.

First, who cares? Since Republicans are part of the bifactional ruling party, as I repeatedly observed more than 10 years ago, why be at all concerned about them retaining power? I’m not. They are part of the problem, not the solution.

Second, perhaps Trump will veto the bill. He certainly should, although he may have more pressing concerns on his agenda at the moment.

Third, this is a conventional political analysis. It doesn’t even begin to account for the possible fallout from the God-Emperor’s ongoing war against the Deep State, which is the most significant factor by far. Due to the potential for tremendous and unexpected consequences from that, don’t put too much credence in the conventional analyses of the midterm elections.

Stay cool, stay calm, have confidence in the God-Emperor, and wait to see what happens. The Deep State is trying to break him. They may, but at this point, I think it is more likely that he will break them.

Consider. To cut through the Russophobia rampant here, Trump decided to make a direct phone call to Vladimir Putin. And in that call, Trump, like Angela Merkel, congratulated Putin on his re-election victory.

Instantly, the briefing paper for the president’s call was leaked to the Post. In bold letters it read, “DO NOT CONGRATULATE.”

Whereupon, the Beltway went ballistic.

How could Trump congratulate Putin, whose election was a sham? Why did he not charge Putin with the Salisbury poisoning? Why did Trump not denounce Putin for interfering with “our democracy”?

Amazing. A disloyal White House staffer betrays his trust and leaks a confidential paper to sabotage the foreign policy of a duly elected president, and he is celebrated in this capital city.

If you wish to see the deep state at work, this is it: anti-Trump journalists using First Amendment immunities to collude with and cover up the identities of bureaucratic snakes out to damage or destroy a president they despise.

UPDATE: There we go. Don’t consider, DO IT! This is not that hard. Build the Wall and Drain the Swamp. If it doesn’t do either of those things, veto it.

I am considering a VETO of the Omnibus Spending Bill based on the fact that the 800,000 plus DACA recipients have been totally abandoned by the Democrats (not even mentioned in Bill) and the BORDER WALL, which is desperately needed for our National Defense, is not fully funded. 
– Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump