Tag: immigration

Denying supply and demand

The US Employment-Population Ratio and Labor Force Participation Rate continue to fall:

A record 94,610,000 Americans were not in the American labor force last month — an increase of 579,000 from August — and the labor force participation rate reached its lowest point in 38 years, with 62.4 percent of the U.S. population either holding a job or actively seeking one.

The EPR is down to 59.2 percent. Imagine how many of those 94.6 million Americans could find jobs, and how much their wages would rise, if the 59 million post-1965 immigrants were repatriated.

A non-nation of non-Americans

Better hope that trusty Magic Dirt continues to exert its amazing transformational power. The Pew Research Center releases a report on post-1965 immigration to the United States.

Fifty years after passage of the landmark law that rewrote U.S. immigration policy, nearly 59 million immigrants have arrived in the United States, pushing the country’s foreign-born share to a near record 14%. For the past half-century, these modern-era immigrants and their descendants have accounted for just over half the nation’s population growth and have reshaped its racial and ethnic composition.

Looking ahead, new Pew Research Center U.S. population projections show that if current demographic trends continue, future immigrants and their descendants will be an even bigger source of population growth. Between 2015 and 2065, they are projected to account for 88% of the U.S. population increase, or 103 million people, as the nation grows to 441 million.

In other words, the country – one can no longer credibly refer to the USA as a “nation” – will belong to their posterity. Not yours. And it will not be at all surprising if those new “Americans” harbor even less allegiance to the U.S. Constitution than we, our parents, and our grandparents have demonstrated by betraying the very purpose of that document.

That’s the problem with “a propositional nation”. Changing the population changes the proposition and pretty soon, the “nation” is no more.

I very much doubt those “current demographic trends” will continue. Remember, most of those homogeneous nations originally came out of heterogeneous nations. History has a harsh way of ensuring that the nations remain largely homogeneous, one way or another.

Europe burns

Mosques and refugee centers are being set alight everywhere from the UK:

Two teenagers have been arrested on suspicion of arson after a large fire engulfed part of a south London mosque, believed to be the largest in western Europe.

Shocked onlookers watched as seventy firefighters tackled the blaze at the Baitul Futuh mosque in Morden which started at around midday on Saturday. Two boys aged 14 and 16 have been arrested on suspicion of arson, and both remain in custody at a south London police station, Scotland Yard said.

The enormous building sits on a 5.2acre site and can hold 10,500 people. At the time of the fire, however, only a handful of worshippers were inside, and were quickly evacuated. Nobody was at prayer when the fire broke out.The huge effort to control the fire involved the police, ambulance services and the large fire brigade presence. The firefighting operation shut down the A24 and traffic was tailed back for miles as a result.

As I’ve mentioned, in Europe it is the young who are considerably more nationalistic than their elders. To Germany:

A fire in a gym, destined to be a shelter for hundreds of migrants and refugees, means a southwestern German town is now unable to accommodate any more asylum seekers. Police suspect arson.

An overnight arson attack on a sports hall, prepared to become a migration center with capacity for 400 people, has put the building in danger of collapse, the dpa news agency reported on Sunday.

“No more refugees will come to [the town of] Wertheim, as there is no additional emergency accommodation,” Hermann Schroeder from the Baden-Wuerttemberg state government said.

As I’ve said before, it’s remarkable to hear Americans babbling about how Europeans are lying down and dying when they are actively resisting the invasion of their lands by fair means and foul. Meanwhile, most Americans consider it beyond the pale when Donald Trump talks about sending illegal aliens home.
 

One-quarter of a job

After reading the actual study that is being used to claim that immigration actually creates new jobs for native workers, I became so skeptical of their mathematical modeling, their theoretical justifications, and their cherry-picked data that I have reached the conclusion that even with the wind of the credit boom at their backs, I can disprove their conclusions on the basis of the same 1980-to-2000 period they used to make their claims.

First, however, I have to note some corrections that I have made to my previous post. Because I used the labor force and not the working-age population, my numbers were a little off. My conservative interpretation of the NBER model meant that the U.S. economy was 24,367,681 short of the number of jobs predicted by the model. And from 2000 to 2015, 16.4 million new immigrants have created a total of 5,832,319 new jobs, for an average jobs/immigrant ratio of 0.36, which is still considerably short of the 1.2 that had been claimed.

But the economists’ claims were actually more outrageous than I thought at first. You may recall that I was thinking perhaps the 1.2 job included the immigrant’s job, for a net benefit to a native worker of 0.2. But that was simply how the media characterized the study, which actually claimed the following:

“Consistent with our prediction, the impacts of immigration on employment growth have become greater as the estimates imply that each new immigrant is predicted to add 2.5 new jobs (1.9 for native workers) to a city in which he or she settles.”

So that is the prediction we will use for the 20-year period they used, 2.5 new jobs per immigrant. In 1980, the U.S. working age population was 142,520,008 and the employment population ratio was 60.0. That means there were 85,512,005 jobs in 1980.

From 1980 through 1999, there were 16,822,980 legal immigrants, not counting refugees or undocumented workers. According to the study, they created 42,057,450 new jobs, which means that there should have been 127,569,455 jobs in the United States in 2000.

Were there? In January 2000, the working age population of the United States was
178,259,050 and the Employment-Population Ratio was 64.6, meaning there
were 115,155,346 jobs, leaving 12,414,109 of the newly created jobs unaccounted for. In fact, 16.8 million immigrants created 29,643,341 jobs, or 1.76 per immigrant. That looks pretty good, with each immigrant not only finding work but adding three-quarters of a new job per native. Of course, a credit boom is going to make most economic statistics look good.

However, if we put the two periods together, what we see is that from 1980 to 2015, 33,180,780 legal immigrants have created a total of 35,475,660 new jobs, for a net rate of 1.07 new jobs per legal immigrant. If we then add the additional 12 million illegal immigrants estimated to be resident in the USA, this reduces the 35-year new jobs/immigrant ratio to 0.78, which means that each immigrant eliminates approximately one-quarter of an existing American’s job.

And if the number of undocumented workers is as high as 30 million, as Ann Coulter and Donald Trump have asserted, then the new job/immigrant rate is 0.56 and each immigrant eliminates nearly half of an existing American’s job.

Californication and cuckservatism

Taxpayers flee high-tax Democrat States for lower-tax Republican States:

In 2013, more than 200,000 people on net fled states with Democrat governors [led by New York, Illinois, California, Connecticut, and Massachusetts] for ones run by Republicans [led by Texas, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Arizona], according to an analysis of newly released IRS data by Americans for Tax Reform.

“People move away from high tax states to low tax states. Every tax refugee is sending a powerful message to politicians,” said ATR President Grover Norquist. “They are voting with their feet. Leaders in Texas and Florida are listening. New York and California are not.”

That year, Democrat-run states lost a net 226,763 taxpayers, bringing with them nearly $15.7 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI). That same year, states with Republican governors gained nearly 220,000 new taxpayers, who brought more than $14.1 billion in AGI with them.

Instapundit advises the newly flown wisely: JUST DON’T VOTE FOR THE SAME LOSER POLICIES WHEN YOU GET THERE.

But here is what I find interesting. Many of the same people who correctly understand that there is a serious political problem that arises from Californians moving to Colorado, New Yorkers moving to North Carolina and Minnesotans moving to Texas will nevertheless deny that the Irish, Italians, Germans, Scandinavians, and Jews, all of whom came from political cultures far more different from the political tradition established by the English U.S. Founding Fathers, could possibly have had any negative effect on the resulting American political scene.

I fail to see how it is even remotely possible to assert the one and deny the other. Indeed, logic dictates that the changes that stemmed from the multiple waves of immigration from various alien nations must have been considerably greater than the changes resulting from these state-to-state population transfers.

Millions of Mexicans immigrants can now vote. They are accustomed to
choosing between a nationalist party (National Action Party) and two revolutionary socialist
parties (Institutional Revolutionary Party and (Party of the Democratic Revolution)… which may well be the choice facing Americans in less than two decades. If the Republican party does not become the nationalist party, a new one will arise.

Immigration is rape culture

Why, I wonder, is it so important for refugees to be segregated by nationality, considering that we’re told they won’t have any trouble immediately transforming into Germans or Swedes on the Magic Dirt basis?

A culture of rape and sexual abuse is being allowed to take hold in asylum centres across Germany as Europe struggles to cope with the migrant crisis, it has been alleged,

Women’s rights groups and politicians have highlighted assaults against women and children in at least one camp. And they suggest such incidents may be widespread, with many going unreported to the police.

Campaigners also claimed some men saw unaccompanied women as ‘fair game’, and also blamed conditions in which occupants were unsegregated by gender or nationality.

Johannes-Wilhelm Roerig, the federal commissioner for child sexual abuse issues, said: ‘I am most concerned that refugee children in camps, gymnasiums, or former barracks are not sufficiently protected from sexual assault.’

Campaign group Women For Refugee Women said the solution was to integrate genuine refugees as quickly as possible into society to remove them from the risks of overcrowded conditions. Its director Natasha Walter said: ‘People should not be in detention centres, they should be in the community where they can avail themselves of the normal protections given to citizens by the authorities.’

It’s fascinating how they are more concerned about the invaders being raped by their fellow invaders than they are about the citizens upon whom they are eager to inflict these fine, upstanding, hard-working new neighbors.

An America in decline

The results of this poll are hardly surprising:

Americans are “fed up” with politics, suspect the wealthy are getting an unfair edge, and think the country is going in the wrong direction, according to a new Bloomberg Politics poll that lays bare the depth and breadth of the discontents propelling outsider candidates in the Republican presidential field.

The survey shows that 72 percent of Americans think their country isn’t as great as it once was—a central theme of front-runner Donald Trump’s campaign. More than a third prefer a presidential candidate without experience in public office.

America isn’t as great as it once was. Among other things, it isn’t as smart as it once was. That is because it is no longer a predominantly European nation; based on U.S. demographic changes, my estimate (and it is a generous, conservative one), is that the average IQ in America declined from 100.6 in 1960 to 98.3 in 2010. Based on the increased rate of immigration since 2010, the average IQ has probably declined further to around 98.1, for a net decline of 2.5 points.

It certainly explains a lot about the dumbing down of everything from television to computer games.

This 2.5-point decline is consistent with the size of IQ declines observed in other nations, such as the United Kingdom and Denmark, which have reported declining IQs as a result of immigration. Immigration does not intrinsically “strengthen” a nation, it totally depends upon a) who the immigrants are, and b) how they subsequently behave. In the case of the post-1965 USA, it has indubitably been weakened by it.

The simple fact of the matter is that post-1965 immigration has made America stupider and quite literally below its historical average. And based on the current youth demographics, we can expect the average American IQ to further decline to below 96.5 by 2050.

So much for the inevitability of human progress. It is probably not a coincidence that the concept became popular during the period of European expansion.

Conversation with a cucky

Charles Martin leaps to the defense of David French. A moderate amount of amusement ensues:

Vox Day
.@JonahNRO @DavidAFrench The fact that you think you can defend a culture WITHOUT defending a race is what makes you #cuckservative.
24 retweets 46 favorites

Charlie Martin
@voxday @JonahNRO @DavidAFrench the fact that you think that is what makes you an unlikable dolt.

Vox Day
So you say. And yet, I’m smarter and more popular than you are. And on this issue, I’m also correct.

Charlie Martin ‏@chasrmartin
I might buy more popular.

Vox Day
I have lived in Japan, the USA, and Italy. I have learned the languages. Culture is NOT geography.

Charlie Martin
What *is* American culture? “We hold these truths to be self-evident….” That’s not a race.

Vox Day
It’s English. The Rights of Englishmen. They believed it was universal. No one else did. Or does.

Vox Day
That’s like observing bushido is not a race. That’s true, it is the cultural belief of a race.

Charlie Martin
Which is why so many Americans then spoke German. And you wonder why I think you’re a dolt.

Vox Day
You’re historically illiterate. A smaller percentage spoke German then than speak Spanish now.

Charlie Martin
Now, if all Pekinese are dogs, are all dogs Pekinese?

Vox Day
No, but moving a Pekinese to Germany will not make it a German Shepherd. Or a good guard dog.

Charlie Martin
And, unlike you, I’m not overcompensating for my fears about my intellectual achievements.

Vox Day
No, clearly not. You are a modest man with much to be modest about. What causes your overeating?

It’s always funny when the guy trying to strike the superior pose reveals that his level of historical knowledge doesn’t rise to the level of Snopes. It’s not hard to understand why they stick to rhetoric. Dialectic, even in 140-character chunks, is obviously beyond them.

It’s also informative, because it demonstrates that one doesn’t have to be an SJW to be prone to utilizing SJW-style tactics and rhetoric. The “conservative” version is observably more prone to using pseudo-dialectic, but it’s rhetoric all the same.

And just to be clear, less than 10 percent of the U.S. population ever spoke German; one-third of Pennsylvanians did at its linguistic peak. Spanish speakers now make up about 16 percent of the U.S. population.

Inside the Syrian war

One of the things I’ve noticed about the war in Syria is the complete failure of the media and the U.S. government to successfully establish Assad as the official bad guy. This is likely in part due to the fact that he’s the guy fighting the people who are beheading Westerners on YouTube.

This interview with a young Syrian man living in Russia, who volunteered to fight in Syria for the government, is tremendously informative and punctures the Western media narrative in a number of ways.

We talked to Michel Mizah, a 25-year-old citizen of Russia and Syria, who recently returned from Damascus, where he fought in the “Shabiha” pro-government paramilitary units.

He told us what the Syrians think about the war, President Bashar Assad, the Islamic state, and the future.

Why did you decide to go to Syria?

My father is from Syria, and there we still have a lot of relatives with whom we talk to on a daily basis, basically living in two countries at once. We are Christians. My second cousin is fighting in the Syrian army, my uncle and aunt, civilians, were killed in 2012 in Kalamun.

So, each time I saw the news, I was plagued by vague uneasiness… For three years, I wanted to go there, but something always got in the way – wife, job, etc. Only now, everything came together, and I was able to go.

When the “Arab Spring” had just begun, how did your family react?

At first, my family sympathized with the protesters. But then it became obvious that the hardliners among the secular opposition work in the interests of Turkey and the Arab monarchies. Plus the course for Islamization was visible early on, and that was a concern.

Like pretty much all normal people, my family, my friends and everyone I know in Syria are strongly against Wahhabis and religious extremism in general.

In Syria, the war is not against Assad, but against civilization itself. ISIS literally keeps slaves, crucifies people, introduces medieval taxes for Christians and kills Shiites and Alawites on the spot…

Do you, personally, want to live according to Sharia law, where you would be killed for smoking or alcohol, and beaten with sticks in the town square for wearing narrow jeans? Neither do we!

And we know that would happen, if Damascus falls. In Raqqa, it’s already like that, the locals tell us. There are still buses traveling, so we know the alternative to Assad very well.

In Damascus, I met a girl, she was only 20 years old, and she spent the last three months in ISIS slavery. One of their commanders bought her as a concubine, and when he died, she was “inherited” by his successor … Relatives barely managed to buy her back.

Did you know where you’ll be going to in Damascus, was there someone waiting for you?

Of course. About two months before departure, through a friend of the family, I got in touch with my future unit commander in “Shabiha”. This is the same “Shabiha”, which the UN in 2012, accused of “crimes against humanity”.

In general, over two months, I told him about myself: Who am I, what can I do, why do I want to come, and so on … And he explained what is going on over there, what I would do, and lots more.

I would have joined the army, but my turn for mobilization comes last, since I am the only breadwinner in the family, and you can’t simply go there for a short time. My cousin is there for three years, and he can’t even see his family, because the frontline is constantly very hot.

Your militia, did it include only Syrians, or was it an international team?

People come from Lebanon and Iran, because they understand that if Syria falls, they are next. They send us military advisers and weapons … The whole “Shiite axis of evil” supports us!

As for the rest of the world, I have not seen fighters from there… It seemed to me that the Embassy of Syria in Russia does not approve of such things. Perhaps this is due to the rumors about the so-called “Russian Legion”, which a few years ago was hired by some company in St. Pete to fight for Assad [officially, to guard some pipeline or other – ed.]. But when they arrived in Damascus, the Russian diplomats protested, and the “legionnaires” were sent back home, a few were prosecuted for mercenary activities [it’s legal by Russian law to fight in a foreign war, but not to make money from it – ed.].

In general, joining the fight for Syria is only possible if one has Syrian citizenship, or there is some agreement between governments. But the Islamists – they flock to attack Syria from all corners of the world.

It’s also informative in how it punctures the illusions of the multiculturalists. This is a young man who is second-generation “Russian” by their definition of ground-defined identity, and yet he was willing to go and fight and risk dying for Syria, his true nation, rather than fight for Russia. This suggests that the European nations that make the mistake of permitting the current “refugees” residence in Europe will find that their new residents imported the Middle East’s wars with them.

This is something that those who think 50 million Hispanics are going to become Americans in the U.S. sense should keep in mind. They’re not. And indeed, they’re already claiming Los Angeles as the northern capital of Latin America.

Be happy it’s just water

Islamic invaders are shocked that their attempts to invade Hungary are being forcefully rebuffed:

Migrants are shocked and angry after Hungarian police sprayed tear gas and water cannons at those trying to push through a border post.

Several people received medical treatment from the Serbian ambulance service at the scene of Wednesday’s clash near Horgos. Most were suffering from the tear gas but one young man had a bloody leg.

“We fled wars and violence and did not expect such brutality and inhumane treatment in Europe,” said Amir Hassan of Iraq, soaking wet from the water cannon and trying to wash tear gas from his eyes.

“Shame on you Hungarians!” he shouted, pointing toward the Hungarian police who were firing volleys of tear gas canisters directly into the crowd.

It’s tear gas and water cannons now. It’s going to be machine guns and naval gunfire next.

They don’t belong in Europe. They will not remain in Europe.

I wonder what might communicate the message to Islamic migrants that they are not welcome with sufficient clarity? I understand previous European leaders once had to address a similar problem, how did they go about surmounting the language and cultural communications gap?