Tag: EU

The Price of Partiality

Switzerland is beginning to learn that no one will utilize a middleman who takes sides, as the Alpine country runs the risk of missing out on a truly historic opportunity:

The latest 32% monthly fall in commodities trading followed a 27.5% decline in April, 22% in March and double-digit negative figures going back to the start of the year. The latest figures from the Federal Statistical Office show the volume of Swiss commodities trading in freefall as the Ukraine war rages on, destabilising the shipment of grains around the world and redirecting the flow of Russian oil.

Switzerland has established itself a one of the most important global hubs for trading oil, metals and foodstuffs. Swiss-based companies handle 40% of all oil trades and have taken a 60% slice of the metals trading business, 65% in cotton, 55% in coffee and 35% in cocoa, according to the industry association Suissenégoce. The sector employs 35,000 people and contributes some 4% to the Swiss economy.

The real loss to the Swiss economy will be the opportunity cost going forward. With the inevitable bifurcation of the global economy into two unequal halves, the larger BRICS economy and the smaller WEF/SWIFT economy, the neutral Swiss were in the perfect position to serve as the central intersection where the two international economies could meet to trade. What will eventually be seen as a single-digit hit to the economy is actually a much larger loss to what the economy could have, and should have, become.

But the unbelievable myopia of the current set of Swiss politicians combined with external pressure from a Clown World caused them to throw away all of Switzerland’s natural and historic advantages in order to take the losing side in a war that neither Ukraine nor NATO could ever even hoped to have won militarily. Now that Clown World’s desperate bid to win the war with banks in lieu of tanks has failed, Switzerland finds itself categorized as an “unfriendly” state by both Russia and China and is increasingly likely to find itself excluded from consideration as a future central trading hub by all of the countries that are aligning themselves with BRICS.

Even FIFA and the Olympics could find themselves in jeopardy soon if all of the BRICS nations pull out of the global sports associations in solidarity with the banned Russian athletes and teams. Given that the Saudi Sports Agency has already proven that it can leverage its money to swiftly take over an entire sport with its LIV Golf maneuver, both the opportunities to a Sino-Russian-Saudi alliance and the vulnerabilities of the existing organizations are obvious to even a casual and indifferent observer.

The only hope the Swiss have of taking a central place in the future bipolar world economy is a rapid and sincere commitment to an official neutrality that is firmly established in the national constitution. The choice should be obvious given the near failure of UBS, the failure of Credit Suisse, the PGA Tour partnership, the Nigerois war for economic independence from France, the economic contraction of Germany, the coming surrender of NATO and Ukraine, the pivot of the US military toward China, and the ongoing collapse of the European Union.

The existing Atlanticist economic order is simply not going to survive in its current form, so seeking to curry its favor is not only unproductive, but self-destructive. And no redefinitions of what “neutrality” actually is will fool anyone, especially not those nations whose corporations and citizens are subject to material sanctions. Only those whose positions are inherently untenable need to redefine words in order to justify their positions.

The problem is that a generation of politicians who have been accustomed to regard the USA and the EU as the Sun and Moon for three decades are probably incapable of grasping the geostrategic realities of a world in which those two entities combined amount to nothing more than the junior side of the Great Bifurcation.

It is a real pity that the Swiss journalists who daily peruse this blog looking for ammunition to discredit and deplatform me will not quote me on this particular subject, because it is vastly more significant to them, and to those they seek to influence, than anything I have said that violates their precious Narrative.

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The Military Wing of Clown World

The New York Times admits that NATO exists to control the European nations, not defend them:

Many observers expected NATO to close shop after the collapse of its Cold War rival. But in the decade after 1989, the organization truly came into its own. NATO acted as a ratings agency for the European Union in Eastern Europe, declaring countries secure for development and investment. The organization pushed would-be partners to adhere to a liberal, pro-market creed, according to which — as President Bill Clinton’s national security adviser put it — “the pursuit of democratic institutions, the expansion of free markets” and “the promotion of collective security” marched in lock step. European military professionals and reform-minded elites formed a willing constituency, their campaigns boosted by NATO’s information apparatus.

When European populations proved too stubborn, or undesirably swayed by socialist or nationalist sentiments, Atlantic integration proceeded all the same. The Czech Republic was a telling case. Faced with a likely “no” vote in a referendum on joining the alliance in 1997, the secretary general and top NATO officials saw to it that the government in Prague simply dispense with the exercise; the country joined two years later. The new century brought more of the same, with an appropriate shift in emphasis. Coinciding with the global war on terrorism, the “big bang” expansion of 2004 — in which seven countries acceded — saw counterterrorism supersede democracy and human rights in alliance rhetoric. Stress on the need for liberalization and public sector reforms remained a constant.

In the realm of defense, the alliance was not as advertised. For decades, the United States has been the chief provider of weapons, logistics, air bases and battle plans. The war in Ukraine, for all the talk of Europe stepping up, has left that asymmetry essentially untouched. Tellingly, the scale of U.S. military aid — $47 billion over the first year of the conflict — is more than double that offered by European Union countries combined. European spending pledges may also turn out to be less impressive than they appear. More than a year after the German government publicized the creation of a special $110 billion fund for its armed forces, the bulk of the credits remain unused. In the meantime, German military commanders have said that they lack sufficient munitions for more than two days of high-intensity combat.

Whatever the levels of expenditure, it is remarkable how little military capability Europeans get for the outlays involved. Lack of coordination, as much as penny-pinching, hamstrings Europe’s ability to ensure its own security. By forbidding duplication of existing capabilities and prodding allies to accept niche roles, NATO has stymied the emergence of any semiautonomous European force capable of independent action. As for defense procurement, common standards for interoperability, coupled with the sheer size of the U.S. military-industrial sector and bureaucratic impediments in Brussels, favor American firms at the expense of their European competitors. The alliance, paradoxically, appears to have weakened allies’ ability to defend themselves.

Yet the paradox is only superficial. In fact, NATO is working exactly as it was designed by postwar U.S. planners, drawing Europe into a dependency on American power that reduces its room for maneuver. Far from a costly charity program, NATO secures American influence in Europe on the cheap.

In related news, Germany has announced that it is sending its last 20,000 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, along with 25 more Leopard tanks, which along with the 29 Leopards previously provided, represent 24 percent of its total armor. By the current rate of usage in Ukraine, the ammunition will last just under one week.

This is an astonishingly risky decision by the German government, since once Russia wins the war of attrition and completely depletes all NATO stocks, it may find that it has the option of rolling all the way to the English channel without any meaningful opposition even if it previously had no intention of doing so.

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Surrender Monkeys Urge Surrender

It reads like a vicious American parody, but this is an actual editorial published by Le Monde in response to the recent invader riots that have literally set France on fire.

Urban riots: the need for appeasement
EDITORIAL
Le Monde

While it is necessary to question the roots of the violence in France following the death of young Nahel M., the seriousness of the situation requires us all to call for calm. This is first and foremost in the interests of the inhabitants of neighborhoods considered difficult, with whom we must show solidarity.

Yes, because appeasement is famous for having worked out so well for the appeasers. At this point, no Frenchman or Frenchwoman can possibly continue to imagine that the French elite, or the liberal democracy which purports to uphold, is even remotely conducive to the long-term survival of the French nation.

Where is La Résistance when it’s even more desperately needed than it was before? And why does anyone bow before an elite so aptly derided as “cheese-eating surrender monkeys”.

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The War on Vermin

It’s not a civil war. It’s a war between the French people who want France to survive and the invaders who have entered the gates with the connivance of multiple treasonous French governments. Fortunately, and unlike during the Yellow Vest protests, the police appear to be on the side of the people so far, as they have declared themselves to be “at war” with “savage hordes of vermin”.

French police said they were “at war” with “savage hordes of vermin” on Friday night as France was rocked by violent waves of riots and looting and about 1,000 more people were arrested.

Two of the country’s top police unions threatened a revolt unless Emmanuel Macron’s government restored order after protests broke out over an officer’s shooting of a teenager outside Paris.

“Today the police are in combat because we are at war. Tomorrow we will enter resistance and the government should be aware of this,” they said.

As crazy as it might sound, given the current probability space, a right-wing police coup may be the best scenario that the people of France could hope and pray for. If there is one thing that recent events have made clear, it is that democracy has absolutely and utterly failed the nations that embraced it. We can only hope that it will remain dead for another 2,000 years before another set of naive and romantic fools revive it and decided that it can be controlled.

The real question is what the police will do when the people of France take arms against their invaders. Will they support them and defend them or will they turn against them again in service to the globalist agenda of their political masters? Recent history suggests the latter, but these are interesting and unpredictable times.

Democracy is every bit as bad as the ancients warned. Think about this: the disasters we are witnessing across the Old World and the New are the result of a limited, moderate, and representative form of the system. It’s so awful that even the most staunch and avowed democrat isn’t willing to endorse true, direct, and unlimited democracy.

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It’s Not the Taxes

Norway’s wealthiest are fleeing the country:

A record number of super-rich Norwegians are abandoning Norway for low-tax countries after the centre-left government increased wealth taxes to 1.1%.

More than 30 Norwegian billionaires and multimillionaires left Norway in 2022, according to research by the newspaper Dagens Naeringsliv. This was more than the total number of super-rich people who left the country during the previous 13 years, it added. Even more super-rich individuals are expected to leave this year because of the increase in wealth tax in November, costing the government tens of millions in lost tax receipts.

Many have moved to Switzerland, where taxes are much lower. They include billionaire fisher turned industrial tycoon Kjell Inge Røkke who moved to the Italian-speaking city of Lugano, just over the border from his favoured hangout Lake Como and the fashion capital Milan.

Røkke, 64, is the fourth-richest Norwegian, with an estimated fortune of about NOK 19.6bn (£1.5bn). In an open letter, he said: “I’ve chosen Lugano as my new residence – it is neither the cheapest nor has the lowest taxes – but in return, it is a great place with a central location in Europe … For those close to the company and to me, I am just a click away.”

His relocation will cost Norway about NOK 175m in lost tax revenue a year. Last year, Røkke was the country’s highest taxed individual. Dagens Næringsliv calculated that he has paid about NOK 1.5bn in tax since 2008.

His move to Switzerland follows a relatively small increase in tax aimed at the country’s super-rich, who face wealth taxes at both the local and state level. That includes a municipal tax of 0.7% on assets in excess of NOK 1.7m for individuals, or NOK 3.4m for couples. There is also a state wealth tax rate of 0.3% on assets above NOK 1.7m. In November, the government raised the state rate to 0.4% for assets above NOK 20m for individuals, and NOK 40m couples, taking the maximum wealth tax rate to 1.1%.

Ole Gjems-Onstad, a professor emeritus at the Norwegian Business School, said he estimated that those who had left the country had a combined fortune of at least NOK 600bn.

This is a fascinating article, because for decades, the media has aggressively denied that wealthy people adjust their behavior in response to tax increases. I remember, in particular, a three-part series published by the St. Paul Pioneer Press in the late 1990s that lamented the fact that new corporations were not growing up to replace the great Minnesota companies of the 1950s through 1970s, the Honeywells, the 3Ms, and the Control Datas, but didn’t once mention the fact that Minnesota then had some of the highest income taxes in the country.

The omission was rather remarkable, given the way in which the vast majority of the members of the Minnesota corporate boards at the time were erstwhile Minnesotans who were Florida residents.

But I don’t think that’s what’s happening here. Especially considering that the Norwegians are disproportionately opting to move to Switzerland, where the wealth taxes are even higher. For once, I don’t think these decisions are being driven by tax rates. Instead, I strongly suspect that the wealthy Norwegians are electing to move to a country that is going to remain neutral in the Russian-NATO war, knowing that when the proxy war goes direct, Norway and its oil supplies are almost certainly going to be a target for occupation by NATO and invasion by Russia.

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Turkey Stays the Course

President Recip Erdogan has been re-elected.

The head of Türkiye’s Supreme Election Council has announced that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has won a third term in office after defeating Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff election. Erdogan claimed 52.14% of the vote to Kilicdaroglu’s 47.86%, Supreme Election Council chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters on Sunday night. Erdogan defeated his rival by a margin of around 2.2 million votes, according to figures released by the council.

This is very significant because it means that the USA will have to stage another coup, and this time be successful, if it wants to enlist NATO’s second-largest military in its war on Russia. But the Turks have now made it clear that they are not interested in war with Russia, and, when push comes to shove, they will probably choose BRICS over Clown World.

UPDATE: Not much doubt as to which side Erdogan has chosen in the aftermath of his re-election.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged to complete a gas distribution hub to pipe Russian natural gas into Europe via Türkiye. Erdogan said that the project, first suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin, will be built with Russian assistance.

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The Limits Have Been Reached

It’s not going to be too much longer before Europe is riven by violent internal conflict between the pro-migration forces and the nationalist forces, as evidenced by this recent event in three Italian lake towns.

It is the first significant incident of the kind that critics of unrestricted and, above all, unconditional mass migration have feared for decades. On the southern shores of Lake Garda, around 1,500 North Africans formed a mob that undertook a violent “war campaign” through several localities.

There were attacks, multiple cases of severe property damage, and numerous cases of sexual assault. The perpetrators waved African flags and shouted slogans of “reconquest.” The call for the roundup is said to have been made on June 2 via Tiktok. The towns affected were Peschiera del Garda, Castelnuovo and Desenzano.

The African mob moved through the streets of the villages, destroying shop windows and attacking tourists and bystanders.

To the contrary, it is the supporters of unrestricted and unconditional mass migration who have feared this moment for decades. The critics always knew it was going to come. Ethnic cleansing is inevitable. It has always happened, sooner or later, throughout the course of history.

The only question is who will remain, the natives or the newcomers.

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With Tongues of Neoclowns

European puppets are speaking words that are literally put into their mouths. Notice the particular choice of language utilized by the EU commissioner that is being specifically criticized by the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov:

In a desperate attempt to assert its dominance by punishing the disobedient, the United States has moved to destroy globalization, which for many years it extolled as the greatest good of all mankind.

Now the United States and its allies blacklist anyone who dissents from their “golden billion” and tell the rest of the world, “those who are not with us are against us”.

Yet the “Western minority” has no right to speak for the entire world.

Its “rules-based order” amounts to rejection of sovereign equality, the key principle of the United Nations Charter, as evidenced by European Union commissioner Josep Borrell’s infamous statement about the European “garden” and the “jungle” outside it.

In addition to the string of United States military “adventures” from Yugoslavia and Iraq to Libya, the worst violation of the United Nations Charter was its meddling in the affairs of post-Soviet states,

As examples are the “color revolutions” in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan and the 2014 coup in Kiev.

The garden and the jungle is a geopolitical metaphor popularized by Robert Kagan, the neoclown intellectual who writes deceptive little instructional pamphlets that inform Clown World leaders what rhetoric they should be utilizing and also happens to be married to the notorious neoclown color revolutionary, Victoria Nuland.

While “the rule of the jungle” first appeared in George Bush’s “New World Order” speech in 1991, there is not a single reference to the jungle/garden metaphor in either Present Dangers (2000) or The Return of History and the End of Dreams (2009). But the metaphor is the framework for The Jungle Grows Back (2018), which concludes thusly:

The liberal order is as precarious as it is precious. It is a garden that needs constant tending lest the jungle grow back and engulf us all.

Based on Lavrov’s criticism, the Russians are clearly aware of the servile nature of those who speak with the tongues of neoclowns. And they’re clearly not inclined to accept the imposition of the new narrative upon “the jungle” either.

Moscow will not abide by the “so-called rules” invented and imposed by “certain countries,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, as he delivered a speech at a meeting of Russia’s Council of Legislators in St. Petersburg.

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A Wargame in Washington

This may be the only time I have ever regretted not becoming a Congressman. This weekend, the House Ways and Means Committee played a wargame simulating a US-China war over Taiwan.

It’s April 22, 2027, and 72 hours into a first-strike Chinese attack on Taiwan and the U.S. military response. Already, the toll on all sides is staggering.

It was a war game, but one with a serious purpose and high-profile players: members of the House select committee on China. The conflict unfolded on Risk board game-style tabletop maps and markers under a giant gold chandelier in the House Ways and Means Committee room.

The exercise explored American diplomatic, economic and military options if the United States and China were to reach the brink of war over Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own. The exercise played out one night last week and was observed by The Associated Press. It was part of the committee’s in-depth review of U.S. policies toward China as lawmakers, especially in the Republican-led House, focus on tensions with President Xi Jinping’s government.

In the war game, Beijing’s missiles and rockets cascade down on Taiwan and on U.S. forces as far away as Japan and Guam. Initial casualties include hundreds, possibly thousands, of U.S. troops. Taiwan’s and China’s losses are even higher.

Discouragingly for Washington, alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan.

In the war game, lawmakers played the blue team, in the role of National Security Council advisers. Their directive from their (imaginary) president: Deter a Chinese takeover of Taiwan if possible, defeat it if not. Experts for the Center for a New American Security think tank, whose research includes war-gaming possible conflicts using realistic scenarios and unclassified information, played the red team.

In the exercise, it all kicks off with opposition lawmakers in Taiwan talking about independence.

With the think tank’s defense program director Stacie Pettyjohn narrating, angry Chinese officials respond by heaping unacceptable demands on Taiwan. Meanwhile, China’s military moves invasion-capable forces into position. Steps such as bringing in blood supplies for treating troops suggest this is no ordinary military exercise.

Ultimately, China imposes a de facto blockade on Taiwan, intolerable for an island that produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, as well as other high-tech gear.

One hopes that the wargame’s designers made it real enough to teach the politicians that a war with China over Taiwan is actually less winnable than Ukraine. The basic concept of a “regional power” necessarily entails not interfering with that power in its region-of-control.

The fact that the wargame did not culminate in a US victory, unlike the previous wargames by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is a good sign that it had at least some connection to the actual situation. But the fact that one of the lessons they took from the exercise concerned “diplomacy” and “the lack of direct, immediate leader-to-leader crisis communication” is dangerous, because a) there is no amount of diplomacy or talk-talk that is going to dissuade the Chinese and b) it means the politicians are still hoping to find some sort of painless Smart Boy solution that does not exist.

China fully expects reunification by 2030. I would not be surprised if it takes place sooner than that, and more or less peacefully, given the absolute lunacy of Clown World’s latest ideas for trying to deter the Chinese from their top strategic priority.

The latest remarks by the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, who called for European navies to patrol the Taiwan Straits, caused huge controversy on Sunday as some Chinese observers said the comments are “extremely dangerous” and signal “a retrogression” of the EU’s stance on the Taiwan question following the recent G7 meeting during which the US tried to pressure its allies to take a tougher position on the matter.

European navies should patrol the disputed Taiwan Straits, Borrell wrote in an article published in the French newspaper Journal Du Dimanche, saying that the Chinese island concerns the EU economically, commercially and technologically, according to media reports on Sunday. He called for European navies to patrol the Taiwan Straits to “show Europe’s commitment to freedom of navigation” in this crucial area.

Call of top EU diplomat for European navies to patrol the Taiwan Straits ‘very dangerous’, Global Times

I really don’t think a resort to European gunboat diplomacy is a wise idea when China is actively seeking vengeance for its “Century of Humiliation”. Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.

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