Tag: EU

Article 155

The Spanish government has announced that it will meet on Saturday to take the first step in suspending the autonomy of Catalonia, and the suspension will then be ratified by the Senate on Monday.

After discussing the matter in some depth with several Catalans, my impression is that they don’t really want independence, which explains why they would be quite happy to remain under EU rule even if they were able to become “independent”. A lot of this appears to be belated fallout from the scars of the Franco regime’s suppression of Catalan language and culture, and an expression of a feeling of a general lack of respect from the rest of Spain.

One American married to a Catalan woman talked about how, despite being warned to rent a car instead of taking their car with plates indicating its Barcelona registration, he drove it to Madrid. And, as she warned him would happen, the car got keyed. He cited this as a microcosm of the general disdain that the rest of Spain holds for the Catalans.

Whether that is true or not, it does seem to reflect the general sense of the population. The problem is that while Spain has attempted to legally grant the Catalans the sense of respect they crave, and then some, by giving them a great deal of political autonomy, it’s not simply possible to do so through the mechanism of government and politics.

It may be that what the Catalans really want is just impossible. You can’t be simultaneously equal and special. You just can’t.

The promised rise of nationalism

It is here. It is now. You may recall that I was one of the very few observers of European politics who predicted this years ago. I said it would take two election cycles for the nationalists to come fully to power. We’re still in the first one.

  • In a recent poll by the Czech Academy of Sciences, the ANO scored 30.9 percent, more than the two traditional heavyweights in Czech politics — the Social Democrat CSSD and the right-wing ODS — combined, who scored just 13.1 percent and 9.1 percent respectively.
  • The takeover of the OeVP in May by “Emperor Kurz” was as swift as it was radical. First he ended the decade-long unhappy coalition with the Social Democrats (SPOe). Then he rebranded the OeVP and its black party colour as a turquoise “movement” tough on migrants and easy on taxes. The strategy of “putting Austrians first” propelled the sluggish OeVP to pole position in opinion polls and Kurz to near-rock star status.
  • The People’s Party (OVP) got 31.6 per cent of the vote, according to exit polls from pollster SORA. Mr Kurz’s party is tough on migration, easy on taxes and widely Eurosceptic after rebranding itself over the last few months to propel its popularity in the wealthy Alpine nation. The 31-year-old is expected to form a coalition with the right-wing populist Freedom Party (FPO), who got 26.9 per cent of the vote, according to the latest projections. 
Of course, as with Brexit, the nationalists still have to deliver and free their nations from both the migrant invasions and the chains of the European Union. But be that as it may, it is clear that they have the democratic mandate of their nations, as well as the duty, to do so.

Retreat in Catalonia

Spain and the EU managed to call the Catalan bluff:

Don’t let the cheers in the Catalan Parliament fool you. There’s been a full-blooded retreat from the separatists. After rowdy demonstrations, a covert referendum (which drew a violent response from Spanish police) and vows to set up a new republic, Catalan President Carles Puigdemont blinked.

Many lawmakers gathered for a special session of the regional legislature were hoping to hear a declaration of independence. Instead, he put the process on hold to make another appeal for talks with the Spanish government. No deadline. No leverage. And Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s response was powerful: he started the process that could see Puigdemont’s administration stripped of its powers.

Already last night cracks were opening up in the separatist coalition, suggesting a regional election may be necessary next year.

Perhaps Puigdemont had no real choice. The EU made it clear an independent Catalonia would be isolated. The region’s biggest companies were pulling out. And elite Spanish police officers were waiting to arrest him.

The reason the Catalan bid for independence is going to fail is that they don’t want actually want to be independent. They simply want to move up one rung on the EU totem pole. And that isn’t something that anyone in their right mind is going to fight or die for.

The Spanish misplayed this situation badly, but were ultimately saved by the fact that the Catalans were always ultimately hoping for the EU to swoop in and tell its member state that it had to let Catalonia go. Once the EU belatedly clear that it had no intention of doing so and called the Catalan bluff, the secessionists had no choice but to blink. Because they never, ever, intended to fight.

Skeptical nationalism

John Derbyshire contemplates Catalonia and California:

The great classic Chinese novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms opens with a sentence that any literate Chinese person can quote to you: 話說天下大勢, 分久必合, 合久必分 — “It has been said of all under Heaven that what was long divided must unite, what was long united must divide.”

As well as being a fair summary of four thousand years of Chinese history, that’s not a bad guide to history at large. Nations come together and merge; empires form then disintegrate.

Yes, there are those big historical tides ebbing and flowing. But we can form preferences related to our own time and place. Mine are nationalist, with a seasoning of skepticism.

Nationalism isn’t hard to understand. People want to live among and be governed by other people mostly like themselves, with the same language and shared history, not by foreigners in some distant city who don’t understand them.

It is of course the case that our co-ethnics may be crazy beasts — North Korea‘s a nation; Khmer Rouge Cambodia was a nation — while the foreigners in that distant city might be benign and wise, or at any rate not life-threatening. The Middle East under the Ottoman Empire was not an exemplar of peace and justice, but it doesn’t compare badly with today’s Middle East.

The great British national conservative Enoch Powell, who fifty years ago gave those eloquent warnings about the evils of mass immigration, once said that if Britain were at war he would fight for Britain, even if it was a communist dictatorship.

The Greek poet in Byron’s Don Juan, living under the Ottoman Turks, likewise looked back to the Greek tyrants of antiquity and sighed:

Our masters then

Were still, at least, our countrymen.

I’m basically on the same page with these nationalists, but with reservations. When the Vietnamese army put an end to the Khmer Rouge government by invading Cambodia, most Cambodians hailed them as liberators. Perhaps I would have, too; perhaps even Enoch Powell would have.

So there are qualifications to be made about nationalism, especially small-country nationalism or sub-nationalism. You’re not drawing from a big pool of political talent there. I have mixed occasionally with Scottish and Welsh nationalists; let’s just say I wasn’t impressed.

Sub-nationalism like Catalonia’s is also in contradiction to nationalism proper. Who’s the truer nationalist: the Spanish citizen who would fight and die for Spain, or the Catalan separatist who feels the same way about his province?

Here you’re in the zone of differences that can only finally be decided by force of arms.

Derbyshire comes out for Spain, in the end, in favor of nationalism over sub-nationalism. I would be vastly more inclined to do so if Spain would also abjure the European Union; as usual, binary thinkers can’t seem to grasp the observation that neither side is good and both sides are idiots fighting over the right to be directly subservient to the European Commission on behalf of the Catalans.

The sour joke in Britain thirty years ago was that having fought eight hundred years for their independence, the Irish had then sold it for a package of EU agricultural subsidies. That’s not altogether fair. But looking at Ireland today gives you a jaded perspective on Irish nationalism. The seminaries are full of Nigerians [ How Catholicism fell from grace in Ireland, Chicago Tribune, July 92006] the cab drivers are all Polish; and the current Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, is an open homosexual whose father was an Indian born in Bombay. For this the heroes of 1916 faced the firing squads?

MPAI is one of the sad realities of history. Regardless, Derbyshire’s most important idea is here: We can call this alliance the Natintern, the Nationalist International. I’m still waiting for someone to come up with a suitable anthem, to be called of course The Nationale.

EU incoherence

Both the EU and the Spanish government are proving to be tone-deaf over the threat to their claim to democratic legitimacy.

The obvious answer to the objection of Weber and others on the running of the referendum, is to have another one agreed by all and run in strict accordance with international standards. Yet strangely, despite their complaints about the process, they do not want to have a better process. They rather do not wish people to be allowed to vote at all.

There are however no arguments that the Catalan Parliament was elected in anything but the proper manner. Its suspension by the Spanish Constitutional Court – a body on which 10 out of 12 members are political appointees – is therefore not due to any doubts about the Catalan Parliament’s legitimacy.

No, the Catalan Parliament has been suspended because the Constitutional Court fears it may be about to vote in a way that the Spanish government does not like.

Note that it has not even done this yet. Nobody knows how its members will actually vote, until they vote. The Constitutional Court is suspending a democratically elected body in case it takes a democratic vote of its members.

This makes the EU look pretty silly. It was looking pretty silly anyway. I telephoned the Cabinet today of Frans Timmermans, the EU Commissioner who told the European Parliament that Spain was entitled to use force against the Catalans and it had been proportionate. I spoke to a pleasant young man responsible for the “rule of law and fundamental rights” portfolio in the Cabinet. I got through by using my “Ambassador” title.

Here is the thing. He was genuinely shocked to hear that people thought the Commission’s support for use of force was wrong. He stated that it had not been the intention of Timmermans to say the use of force was proportionate, rather it must be proportionate. He became very agitated and refused to answer when I repeatedly questioned him as to whether he thought the use of force had in fact been proportionate. I suggested to him rather strongly that in refusing to acknowledge the disproportionate use of force, he was in effect lying. I pointed out that Timmermans had supported use of force and said “rule of law” over and over again, but scarcely mentioned human rights.

Here is the thing. It was plain that his shock was genuine, and he had no idea whatsoever of the social media reaction to Timmermans speech. I told him to search Timmermans on twitter and facebook and see for himself, and he agreed to do so. The problem is, these people live in a Brussels bubble where they interact with other Eurocrats and national diplomats, and members of the Establishment media, but have no connection at all to the citizenry of the EU.

Crying “law, law, law” is never going to prove convincing to anyone. The Nuremberg trials killed the concept of the legal justification for morality once and for all. According to the neo-liberal world order, the law rests upon the collective consent of the governed, which consent can be withdrawn at any time as per the Chinese concept of the Mandate of Heaven. Both the EU and Spain are flirting with forces that have the ability to undermine them entirely, and unfortunately, they do not seem to understand this.

For those Spaniards who are apparently very, very slow, I do not support the communists of Catalan. Unlike the Lombardian and Venetian secessionists, I don’t regard their position on independence and the EU to be even remotely coherent. But that does not make what Spain and the EU are trying to do either right or wise.

The Saker is thinking on similar lines when he concludes the Russians are more amused than anything by the situation in Catalonia, and quite reasonably so:

Catalonia is far away from Russia and the outcome of the crisis there will have no real impact on Russian national interests. But on a political level, Catalonia is highly relevant to the Russian political debates. See for yourself:

The case of Catalonia can be compared to Crimea: a local referendum, organized against the will of the central government. In contrast, when Kosovo was cut-off from Serbia in total illegality and without any kind of referendum the entire West gave this abomination a standing ovation. The Russians then issues stark warnings about the precedent this set and thereafter South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Crimea happened. Is the secession of Catalonia not the next logical step? Is there not a karmic beauty in the fact that Spain and the rest of the EU are now being hit by the very same demon they unleashed in Kosovo? There is a definite Schadenfreude for many Russians in seeing the pompous asses of EU politicians sitting on the red ants nest of separatism – let’s see how smart and “democratic” you guys truly are?! It is rather funny, in a bitter-sweet way, to see how ‘democratic’ policemen beat up peaceful demonstrators whose only “crime” was to want to cast a ballot in a box.

A lot of Russians are now saying that Russia is now the only truly democratic and free country left out there. Needless to say, the way the Madrid government handled this situation further damage the credibility of the West, the EU and the entire notion of “civilized Europe” being “democratic”.

The return of La Serenissima

Now that Catalonia is on the verge of independence, Lombardia and Venezia are next:

Italy facing its OWN Catalonia: Referendums in Lombardy and Venice could TOPPLE EU

This month the Lombardy region and the city of Venice will both vote on new powers of autonomy at referendums which are now taking on increasing levels of controversy. Previously seen as a low-scale vote on local powers, the referendums are now experiencing symbolic overtones following last Sunday’s Catalonian chaos.

Last weekend more than 800 people were injured by police as a referendum on independence for Catalonia was held – against the express wishes of leaders in Madrid and Brussels. And now Italy is facing similar chaos with two referendums set to be held on October 22, although in these instances the votes are state-approved and will not face violent opposition.

I’m pretty sure the Venetian referendum will pass. I’m less confident about the Lombardian vote, since there are some heavily socialist regions of the province, but it stands a reasonable chance of passing, especially given what we’re seeing out of Spain. And unlike Catalonia, neither Venetians nor Lombardians are at all keen on the EU. It’s time to let Garibaldi’s Folly pass into history and bring back the great Italian city-states of the Renaissance.

Basta bugie, no UE! 

Media: Wait, don’t you live in Lombardia?
VD: (whistles innocently)

Catalonia to declare independence

Apparently the combination of Spain’s actions and the EU’s statements have pushed the Catalan separatists over the edge:

Catalonia will move on Monday to declare independence from Spain after holding a banned referendum, pushing the European Union nation toward a rupture that threatens the foundations of its young democracy.

Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said he favored mediation to find a way out of the crisis but that Spain’s central government had rejected this. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government responded by calling on Catalonia to “return to the path of law” first before any negotiations.

Mireia Boya, a Catalan lawmaker from the pro-independence Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) party, said a declaration of independence would follow a parliamentary session on Monday to evaluate the results of the Oct. 1 vote to break away.

“We know that there may be disbarments, arrests … But we are prepared, and in no case will it be stopped,” she said on Twitter.

To paraphrase Ben Franklin, you can declare your independence, but can you keep it? It will be informative to see what lengths Spain is willing to go to keep Catalonia, and what the EU is willing to permit Spain to do.

But, as we know from our study of socionomics, the breakup of both Spain and the EU are inevitable. The pendulum is just beginning to swing back from its credit boom heights.

EU or independence

The EU helpfully clarifies the situation for Catalonia:

European Union officials have ruled out helping to mediate the clash between Spain’s government and Catalan officials over Catalonia’s upcoming independence referendum.

European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said at an EU summit in Estonia on Friday that the dispute is “a Spanish problem in which we can do little. It’s a problem of respecting Spanish laws that Spaniards have to resolve.”

Catalan officials, including the mayor of Barcelona, have asked the EU to mediate the tense standoff ahead of Sunday’s planned vote that Spanish authorities say is illegal.

Tajani says the EU is maintaining its support of Spain’s government because “on a legal level, Madrid is right.” He says: “I think it’s important to talk on a political level after Monday.”

The EU has said Catalonia will be ejected from the bloc, if it declares independence.

And now we’ll be able to discover if the Catalonians really want to be independent, or if they just wanted a direct line to EU largesse.

When losing, lose harder

Having failed to learn from the failure of its initial show of force, Spain appears to be intent on losing the moral level of war and is doubling down.

Defense Tuesday ordered the sending of the Army to Catalonia with material and to provide logistical support to the Civil Guard and the National Police . 

This should end well and totally convince the Catalonians that they really, truly are better off as part of Spain. I doubt it escapes anyone’s attention that the Spanish government has shown itself completely unwilling to use its Army against the marauding immigrants invading the country.

90 percent for independence

To absolutely no one’s surprise, the Spanish attempts to stop the Catalan independence referendum completely backfired:

Catalan officials claimed 90{c6770088f688fedd109195fb76ded7bc5c58269bd213a4319575b4bd99e8e8ff} of 2.2 million voters had called for independence in an ‘illegal’ referendum blighted by violent scenes which left at least 888 people injured. World leaders condemned the brutal scenes after officials revealed that hundreds of protesters have been injured so far. Officers were seen kicking and stamping on protesters as they stormed buildings and seized ballot boxes.

Footage captured in the village of Sarria de Ter in the province of Girona showed authorities using an axe to smash down the doors of a polling station where Catalan president Carles Puigdemont was due to cast his vote.  He said the region had won the right to become an independent state with the referendum results due in a few days. And in Barcelona, the region’s capital, officers fired rubber bullets at thousands of protesters demonstrating against their votes being denied.

Now, I am as dubious as anyone else about the accuracy of the reported vote. But seriously, who on Earth is advising the Spanish government? One would think they actually wanted Catalonia to successfully succeed, given how inept and counterproductive their crackdown was.