Speaking of category errors

It’s really remarkable how more than 80 years later, Paul Krugman and the Keynesians are STILL attacking Andrew Mellon despite the fact that his liquidationist policies weren’t implemented back in 1929 and they’re not being implemented now:

When the Great Depression struck, many influential people argued that the government shouldn’t even try to limit the damage. According to Herbert Hoover, Andrew Mellon, his Treasury secretary, urged him to “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers. … It will purge the rottenness out of the system.” Don’t try to hasten recovery, warned the famous economist Joseph Schumpeter, because “artificial stimulus leaves part of the work of depressions undone.” 

Like many economists, I used to quote these past luminaries with a
certain smugness. After all, modern macroeconomics had shown how wrong
they were, and we wouldn’t repeat the mistakes of the 1930s, would we….

So what should we be doing? By all means, let’s restore the kind of
effective financial regulation that, in the years before the Reagan
revolution, helped deter excessive leverage. But that’s about preventing
the next crisis. To deal with the crisis that’s already here, we need
monetary and fiscal stimulus, to induce those who aren’t too deeply
indebted to spend more while the debtors are cutting back. But that prescription is, of course, anathema to Mellonites, who wrongly
see it as more of the same policies that got us into this trap. And
that, in turn, tells you why liquidationism is such a destructive
doctrine: by turning our problems into a morality play of sin and
retribution, it helps condemn us to a deeper and longer slump. 
The bad news is that sin sells. Although the Mellonites have, as I said,
been wrong about everything, the notion of macroeconomics as morality
play has a visceral appeal that’s hard to fight. Disguise it with a bit
of political cross-dressing, and even liberals can fall for it. 
But they shouldn’t. Mellon was dead wrong in the 1930s, and his avatars
are dead wrong today. Unemployment, not excessive money printing, is
what ails us now — and policy should be doing more, not less.

Notice that despite the complete failure of the concept due to the stagflation of the 1970s, Krugman, ever the True Keynesian, still believes that there is some kind of meaningful tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. There isn’t. Neither printing money nor increasing credit necessarily creates any jobs.

And how is it possible for liquidationist policies to be failing today when none of the insolvent banks have been liquidated?


Statewrecked

The next stage in the financial crisis must be coming sooner, rather than later, for the NYT to publish an open warning like this one by David Stockman:

As the federal government and its central-bank sidekick, the Fed, have groped for one goal after another — smoothing out the business cycle, minimizing inflation and unemployment at the same time, rolling out a giant social insurance blanket, promoting homeownership, subsidizing medical care, propping up old industries (agriculture, automobiles) and fostering new ones (“clean” energy, biotechnology) and, above all, bailing out Wall Street — they have now succumbed to overload, overreach and outside capture by powerful interests. The modern Keynesian state is broke, paralyzed and mired in empty ritual incantations about stimulating “demand,” even as it fosters a mutant crony capitalism that periodically lavishes the top 1 percent with speculative windfalls.

The culprits are bipartisan, though you’d never guess that from the blather that passes for political discourse these days. The state-wreck originated in 1933, when Franklin D. Roosevelt opted for fiat money (currency not fundamentally backed by gold), economic nationalism and capitalist cartels in agriculture and industry….

The United States is broke — fiscally, morally, intellectually — and the
Fed has incited a global currency war (Japan just signed up, the
Brazilians and Chinese are angry, and the German-dominated euro zone is
crumbling) that will soon overwhelm it. When the latest bubble pops,
there will be nothing to stop the collapse. If this sounds like advice
to get out of the markets and hide out in cash, it is. 

This would appear to be some sort of warning shot across the bow of Wall Street.  And when he talks about getting out of the markets and hiding out in cash, don’t forget that leaving your money in the bank is absolutely NOT getting into cash.


Inflation vs Deflation IX

Nate posts his first post-Cyprus response:

It is with no small amount of sadness that I must now face the fact that I am not going to get out of this debate without having to explain mal-investment.  It appears in order to counter Vox’s deflation via credit reduction claim… it is absolutely necessary.

Ok so M1… TSM2… Z1…  what is it?

As I stated before…  you’ve already answered that question for yourself.  Vox can write poetic and convincing lines about the esoteric nature of credit money… and he can explain how the paper just represents a claim on this or that…  and none of it will change the fact that when you hear about what’s going on in Cyprus… you have a primal urge to run to the bank and get all of your cash out.  You want the cash.

That’s because the cash you want is money.  For now.

The debit card is very convenient.  No question.  But by now you are probably looking at it with much more cynical eye than you were a month or so ago.  Good.

Read the rest of it there.


Eight Steps of the Expected

Zerohedge looks back to history to predict what is coming down the road. 

To anyone paying attention, reality is now painfully obvious. These bankrupt, insolvent governments have just about run out of fingers to plug the dikes. And history shows that, once this happens, governments fall back on a very limited playbook:

Direct confiscation: As Cyprus showed us, bankrupt governments are quite happy to plunder people’s bank accounts, especially if it’s a wealthy minority. Aside from bank levies, though, this also includes things like seizing retirement accounts (Argentina), increases in civil asset forfeiture (United States), and gold criminalization.

Taxes:  Just another form of confiscation, taxation plunders the hard work and talent of the citizenry. But thanks to decades of brainwashing, it’s more socially acceptable. We’ve come to regard taxes as a ‘necessary evil,’ not realizing that the country existed for decades, even centuries, without an income tax.  Yet when bankrupt governments get desperate enough, they begin imposing new taxes… primarily WEALTH taxes (Argentina) or windfall profits taxes (United States in the 1970s).

Inflation:  This is indirect confiscation– the slow, gradual plundering of people’s savings. Again, governments have been quite successful at inculcating a belief that inflation is also a necessary evil. They’re also adept at fooling people with phony inflation statistics.

Capital Controls: Governments can, do, and will restrict the free-flow of capital across borders. They’ll prevent you from moving your own money to a safer jurisdiction, forcing you to keep your hard earned savings at home where it can be plundered and devalued. We’re seeing this everywhere in the developed world… from withdrawal limits in Europe to cash-sniffing dogs at border checkpoints. And it certainly doesn’t help when everyone from the IMF to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman argue in favor of Capital Controls.

The thought strikes me that we truly live in a perverse world where “free trade” demands the free movement of  labor and bars the free movement of capital. I don’t recall David Ricardo ever working through the implications of that arrangement.  As for the inflation prediction, we’ll see about that.  I have no doubt, of course, that the various governments will be doing their best to inflate, the question is whether they can actually manage to cut the link to credit or not.


How to learn Austrian Economics

Clearly I am debating the wrong person concerning the $56 trillion question.  I shouldn’t be engaging Nate in dialectical discourse with regards to the global economy, but rather a genuine expert on global business and economics.

Kristin is a Global Business and Econ major.  I want to make sure everyone understands that. After someone else brings up Austrian Economics…  Kristin blows them away.. with this amazingly awesome retort…
 
“And what does Austrian economics have to do with anything? But yes, in fact I do know some considering I was just there last year. I know a lot of the basics of the economies within the EU.

And there you have it.

Kristin the Global Business and Econ major knows all about Austrian Economics… because she was in Europe just last year.

See friends?   Put down that Milton Friedman.  You don’t need to read all that.  You just need to do some sight seeing in Chicago.

Oh Sweet Mises… I’d find it hard to believe, were it not for the fact that I once met an economics major from a large public university who had never heard of John Maynard Keynes.


Inflation vs deflation VIII

As is probably becoming rapidly apparent, this debate over inflation vs deflation, despite its esoteric nature, is turning out to be much more practical and relevant than anyone would have previously imagined it to be. The events in Cyprus make this more a discussion of current events than a purely academic matter.  In his most recent post on the subject, Nate began with an admission concerning that we are both talking about the same definition of fiat in one sense of the term.

 Broad definition…  narrow
definition…  it is readily apparent the
broader definition is what I am referring to here. But one must remember that I
am actually no longer using Mises’ definitions at all. I am defining money as
it relates to the commodity competition… not its nature.  I call it fiat money not because it has
government force behind it, but because it is that government force that makes
the commodity win the commodity competition and therefore become the
money.  Credit money doesn’t exist at all
in physical form and thus doesn’t compete in the competition and is not
actually money.  

Why he calls it fiat doesn’t really matter for the purposes of this debate.  However, while he is right to say that credit money is not actually money, (you may recall that I defined it as a “money surrogate”), he is incorrect in stating that it doesn’t exist in physical form.  It does exist; the paper dollars you hold in your pocket and the paper Euros that the depositors in Cyprus are presently unable to obtain are both representatives of a form of credit money.  Now it is true that the paper to mark all current credit claims are seldom, if ever, printed, this doesn’t change the fact that some of them are printed and that they are actual physical representations of the outstanding credit claims.

What is important to note… and what Vox is missing… is that
it when the credit money is created by time-shifting like this is not
considered inflationary.  The interest is
rewarding those who have saved, and it all washes out in the end.  The interest rate, which is the price of
time-shifting money, fluctuates as demand for time-shifting increases and
decreases… and that.. all by itself… mitigates the boom and bust cycle created
by the lending.  As more people borrow,
the price of borrowing goes up… bringing that number back down.  As fewer people borrow the price is lowered
so more will borrow… bringing the number of borrowers back up.  We find a happy medium where the interest
rate is moving around, but the purchasing power is relatively stable.  The risk banks take when leveraging money also
influence that price… which we call the interest rate. All of this works
together nicely.  Which is why when Mises
talks about inflation he always talks about government. 

This is indeed how it is supposed to work.  It is how economists are taught that it works.  But it doesn’t work this way and Nate is incorrect in stating that the creation of credit money is not inflationary.  There are several ways of demonstrating that this is the case.  The one I will utilize here is to look at the supply and demand curve and what happens when credit money is injected.

The creation of credit money always has an immediate effect on prices because it increases the applicable demand.  I shouldn’t need to draw any SD curves, as we can see the effect that expanded home loans had in the housing market, that increased student loans have on the price of tuition, and even in the health care market, where governments borrow the money that is used to pay for the “free” health care delivered to indigent patients.  No cash is being printed, and yet credit money is being created, transactions are taking place, and prices are rising.  While these effects are localized to the relevant markets I suspect the reason why economists historically failed to connect them to the broad increase in price levels that is usually described as inflation is because until relatively recently, it was not possible to obtain general, pre-approved credit for even the smallest transactions.


The economists failed to anticipate either the “credit card” or the debit card, which allows the depositor to tap directly into the credit expansion system without the need to interfere with the expansion by withdrawing the physical debt markers.  And those few who did failed to grasp the full extent of the eventual consequences.  This is why the bankers and governments are so firmly against cash economies; it is actually less about control and tracking, (although obviously governments appreciate the potential benefits of the latter), but because a wholly digital system theoretically allows for unlimited credit expansion… from the traditional perspective.
That is how it is supposed to work.  And when its working like that… we can look
at the amount of money in a given account that exists above and beyond the
deposits in that account and we call it credit money.  Because it exists above and beyond the
deposits in the account, it has no physical representation.  The coins, or dollar bills, do not
exist.  I need you to be clear on
this.  I have a checking account with say…$45,000
in it.  If I go to the bank and ask them
for $45,000 in cash… they will laugh in my face.   However, debit cards are swiped, and the
credit money is accepted exactly like cash is accepted.  That is the miracle.  And it is a miracle… of faith.  
The key phrase being “when it is working like that”.  Nate is correct on all the details here, except that he is still failing to recognize that it is ALL the money in a given account that is credit money, not merely “the amount of money in a given account that exists above and beyond the
deposits in that account”.  This should be abundantly clear in light of the Cypriot situation, where the banks cannot open because, despite their nominal billions on deposit, they have literally no paper markers left to give out even though there are numerous levels of government that are capable of declaring fiat markers to represent those credit claims.  The problem is not that there is no government to print the fiat, but rather, the fact that no one wants to be stuck with the underlying credit claims.
So now that we understand borrowing and lending we can
discuss what is wrong.  And what is wrong…
is the central bank.   Central banks
break the link between savers and lenders. 
Rather than the deposits being the source that creates the leverage, you
now have a central bank that is merely using the deposits to rationalize its
decisions to expand credit.  The deposits
of savers are reduced to mere justification. 
  
The central bank sits on high, and manipulates the interest
rate… which eliminates its ability to mitigate the booms and busts of the business
cycle.  Then on top of that… the evil
bastards then set themselves up as the Credit Gods… passing out credit as they see
fit… attempting to manage an economy every bit as much as the communists ever
did, and failing just as spectacularly.
If you get nothing else… I hope and pray you grasp
that.  
I can’t argue with anything here, except to note that as has been demonstrated with MF Global, the deposits themselves are, quite literally and legally, loans from the depositor to the bank or fidiciary entity.
So if you have made it this far you now realize that the
money in your checking account doesn’t actually exist.  its not that the
banks just don’t keep that much cash stored.  There isn’t that much
cash in existence.  Not even close.  
So now that the terror has sunk in… what is the urge that
you’re squelching down right now?  Is it the urge to go borrow more money?  Or is it the urge… to go get your cash and
stick it under your bed?
Exactly.  And now you
see why Vox’s measure of the money supply is incorrect.   M1 is the real
money.  M2 and TSM2 are close approximations of the
purchasing power currently available… though obfuscated through
shenanigans.  Z1… well Z1..  Is just a measure of claims on money.  It
doesn’t reflect a limit on new future
claims.  At best it can serve as an
indicator of how much new credit money is being created.  Z1 will never
be able to show deflation.  That’s because Z1 doesn’t show a credit
limit…
it shows a credit balance.  See if I have
a $5000 credit limit on my credit card… and I owe $5000… then my credit
card is
showing up as $5000 on the Z1 report.  If
I pay my credit card down to a balance of $2000, then my credit card is
showing
up as $2000 on Z1 which Vox would then say is a reduction in purchasing
power
of $3000.  This is incorrect.  My high credit is still $5000.  I can go
spend that $3000 in credit money any
time I want to.  Z1 is certainly a
valuable tool, but it is a limited one.  Now…
as has been said… one cannot print borrowers… so if the rate of credit
growth
is slowing, or going down instead of up it can mean bad things…for
example the
delivery system for new credit can be interrupted.  That said, if one
considers the nature of the
financial abomination that we have before us, I can certainly not fault
Vox for
going that way.  However, it is not where
I go.
Here is where Nate begins to go more seriously awry.  M1 and M2 are not real money anymore than Z1 is, they are merely money substitutes whereas Z1 is a money surrogate that encompasses them both.  I recognize that Nate is not using the Misean definitions any longer, but I don’t see that his rationale for refusing to do so is necessarily justified or even relevant to determining the inflation/deflation question.  More importantly, his distinction between credit limit and credit outstanding is, if not necessarily false, entirely irrelevant.  It is only credit outstanding that matters; the “limit” is an entirely artificial one that, in this case, represents the extent to which the bank is willing to enable Nate to expand the credit supply.  But that’s not an actual limit in the sense that Nate’s decision to not use his potential credit or even to pay down his outstanding credit is, which is the limit I mentioned in Limits of Demand when I proposed it as an alternative mechanism for powering the Austrian Business Cycle.  Nor is there any macro credit limit; this is why Bernanke and the European Central Bank imagine, erreoneously, that they can expand it indefinitely as they see fit.

But, as we saw in 2008, outstanding credit can and will contract.  Even a slowed expansion of the sort we have seen since 2009 can have a deleterious effect on an economy which depends on a reliable 2.4 percent growth rate per quarter.
The whole reason credit money works, is
because there is a faith-based link from that credit money directly to
cash.  Thus, the money, right now, is cash.  What you’re seeing is
precisely what happened
in the Great Depression.  People wanted
their cash.  They hid it inside walls and
buried it in jars.  Banks collapsed destroying
massive amounts of credit money, but folks still wanted their cash.  But
Vox fails to recognize a critical
underlying difference between then, and today. 
He looks at those in control… the government and the central bankers…
and he sees them expanding credit.  He
understands the system better than almost everyone, including the
central
bankers, and thus he uses that understanding to predict how the system
will
behave.  He expects it to behave the way
it behaved in the 1930s. 
The link is stronger than Nate asserts.  These days, credit money is cash and cash is credit money.  And Nate also credits me with more confidence than I actually possess.  I know the system won’t behave the way it did in the 1930s, in fact, that is precisely what concerns me most.  Unlike before, the banks are not being permitted to collapse, which is why Z1 hasn’t collapsed yet either.  But the bad loans still exist even though they still haven’t been written off.  We are in strange and unpredictable waters here.
I have to take you back again to the competition which
Vox , to his peril, ignores. So we have these commodities battling it
out
in a competition of demand.  Not supply.  Demand. 
The one most in demand wins and becomes the money.  The demand is the
key.  People want that commodity.  They want it badly and everyone knows
they
want it badly.  So because everyone knows
they want that commodity badly… everyone knows that they will be able
to
trade that commodity.  They have faith…
faith friends… that they will be able to exchange that commodity in the
future
for other goods and services they require
That’s all good and well if we’re talking about something like
Gold or Platinum or Silver.  People want
it because of what it is… and what it is will not change.  But fiat money?  Well… they want it because of all manner of
government related enhancements.  If it
weren’t for those enhancements… they wouldn’t want it at all.  But those enhancements exist…  so long as
the people have faith in that government. And that is why I define it as fiat
money.

I suspect Nate has made a fatal error here, because recent events show that faith in government, in the banking system, and even in cash itself is rapidly dissolving.  Everyone now understands that the Cypriot banks don’t have 7 billion cash euros in their vaults, but more importantly, they now also understand that the government can instantly make 10 percent of it disappear regardless of whether if it was in cash form or not.

And when money surrogates, money substitutes, or solid money itself disappears, that is a deflationary action.  Our continued differences of opinion notwithstanding, I think we’ve now covered sufficient theoretical ground that we can move on to the practical aspect of the debate, so I will conclude by asking Nate three questions. 

  1. If the expected outcome is, as he suggests, inflationary, due to the central bank printing presses why has the European Central Bank not simply used the bank holiday to print the required 13.5 billion euros and allowed its customers to withdraw as much of it happens to suit them?  
  2. Why is the ECB risking the Cypriot banking system, the wrath of the Russian depositors, and the fate of the European Union itself on these various schemes rather than simply printing the cash and permitting its withdrawal?
  3. Imagine an American analog, where a bank with billions in deposits but already emptied of all its cash was simply shut down without the usual FDIC shell game of “transferring its deposits” to another bank.  Would this be a deflationary action?

Inflation vs deflation VII

Nate responds with post entitled “Half-Truism”: 

“There are those who say that he cure for inflation is deflation.
 And… there are those, though they are few, who say that the cure for
the man who has been run over by a motorcar, is to have the same
motorcar run over him in the opposite direction.”

– Ludwig Von Mises, “Lecture on Inflation”, 1968

Broad definition…  narrow
definition…  it is readily apparent the
broader definition is what I am referring to here. But one must remember that I
am actually no longer using Mises’ definitions at all. I am defining money as
it relates to the commodity competition… not its nature.  I call it fiat money not because it has
government force behind it, but because it is that government force that makes
the commodity win the commodity competition and therefore become the
money.  Credit money doesn’t exist at all
in physical form and thus doesn’t compete in the competition and is not
actually money. 

As you have noticed by now these responses are coming slower
and slower.  That’s because, by the very
nature of the problem, as we drill down, more and more remedial teaching is
required.   There is a knowledge base
that is required to understand these points… and we must first make sure the
reader has it.

I shall respond to this within the next day or three, as before.


The greatest living economist

Gary North nominates Thomas Sowell:

He applies simple but fundamental concepts of economics to real-world problems, which are often problems that are not widely perceived as being heavily influenced by economic categories.2. He relies exclusively on verbal communications, not graphs or equations, to explain these concepts and their applications. This keeps his expositions firmly within the realm of historical cause and effect.

3. He never begins his economic analyses with this phrase: “Let us assume. . . .” The only time he ever uses “let us assume,” is when it is followed by “for the sake of argument,” which is in preparation for a lambasting of some conventional political assumption.

4. He writes in well-honed English that is the product of over 30 years of writing newspaper columns: clear, precise, and rhetorically persuasive — in short, efficient.

5. He is the most creative economist in our era — or perhaps in any era — in implementing the division of labor in his writing. He hires astoundingly productive research assistants, and then he incorporates their remarkable but diverse discoveries into a single coherent narrative.

6. He is a better historian than he is an economist. Other economists have made observations similar to his. But no other historian matches him in his chosen specialty: economic motivations that have prompted the international migration and subsequent economic successes of modern racial, national, and religious groups.

I like Sowell and generally think well of him, but I lost an amount of respect for him when he resorted to handwaving in response to some errors of Michelle Malkin’s concerning Pearl Harbor.  I also find it remarkable that so many figures of the mainstream right originally hail from the Left.  Why is it that those who were dumb enough to get it wrong initially are most often hailed as heroes, while those who didn’t are customarily ignored?

I’m not sure who my nominee for the greatest living economist would be, but if I had to choose someone, my first thought would be Steve Keen.  I think he is deeply and profoundly wrong on a number of issues, but the work that he has done in exposing the incontrovertible flaws of neoclassical economics is truly remarkable.


Tyler Durden does the math

More debt buys fewer jobs:

The media’s ecstatic read through of today’s Nonfarm payroll beat can barely end: after all, a print of 236k on expectations of 165K, why that has to be great. Well, it is. Until one looks to the number from February 2012, which happens to be 271,000. And even the Keynesian will agree that February follows January, which in 2013 was a downward revised 119K. January 2012? 311,000. In other words, the first two months of 2012 saw a 582,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In 2013: 355,000.

But something else happened between February 29, 2012 and February 28, 2013… Oh yes, the US government issued some $1,198,397,883,967.30 in debt. Oh, and the Fed monetized about half of this amount, and virtually all of the Treasuries issued to the right of the ZIRP period (i.e., risky debt). To summarize: $1.2 trillion in debt buys the US…. 61% of the jobs created a year ago.

The Z1 report for Q4 2012 also came out today.  I’ll do a more detailed post on it this weekend, but here are the highlights.  Keep in mind that I keep track on an ongoing basis, so this ignores the quarterly revisions.

Households, State and Local Governments almost insignificantly down.  Financial up, Federal up, Corporate up big at 3.56%, the third biggest quarterly increase since 2004.  Total credit market debt outstanding up 1.76%, still shy of the 2.36% 60-year historical average.

Q4 2012 credit gap: $333.8 billion
2012 credit gap: $3.1 trillion
Post-2008 credit gap: $27.3 trillion

Translation: debt-disinflation continues.


Inflation vs Deflation VII

In his post entitled Fiat or Shenanigans, Nate contested the idea that US money is credit money and not fiat money with the characteristics of credit money:

Remember I said our money was fiat money… with characteristics of credit money.  Right?  Vox says I am wrong about that.  And… while I considered rushing off to donate some money to an unrelated charity in his name and make a video about it…  instead… I just decided I would address his well made point like an adult…  mostly…

Vox said: “Nate’s first mistake is the identification of credit money as fiat money, even though he clearly has his suspicions concerning the problematic nature of the distinction as it applies to the US monetary system.  That this distinction is false can be demonstrated in two ways, first with a legitimate appeal to authority and history, and second by the money creation process.”

He then provides a quote from Mises, that I agree, does indeed say that fiat money doesn’t yet exist and probably hasn’t existed.  Vox appeals to Mises who appeals to history.   And Nate points out… well shit…  this book was written in 1912…  it appears we have some more history to investigate before that holds water doesn’t it?  Well lets look at this new history then… especially… recent history.

Say what does our buddy Murray have to say about fiat money?

“Under a fiat money standard, governments (or their central banks) may obligate themselves to bail out, with increased issues of standard money, any bank or any major bank in distress. In the late nineteenth century, the principle became accepted that the central bank must act as the “lender of last resort”, which will lend money freely to banks threatened with failure. Another recent American device to abolish the confidence limitation on bank credit is “deposit insurance”, whereby the government guar­antees to furnish paper money to redeem the banks’ demand li­abilities. These and similar devices remove the market brakes on rampant credit expansion.”

While the quote from Mises does date back to the 1912 text, Mises himself lived until 1973 and witnessed all of the innovations mentioned, even the removal of the convertibility to gold by President Nixon.  I am not aware of any point at which he changed his opinion on this matter, nor does Nate suggest that he did.

Given the fact that the FDIC’s deposit insurance observably does not take the form of paper money being furnished to redeem the failing banks’ demand liabilities, but rather transfers those liabilities to other banks in the system without any paper money at all being furnished to anyone, I think it is safe to conclude that Murray does not have a sufficient grasp on the difference between fiat money and credit money for his statements to be relevant here.  Moreover, the statement that the central bank is “the lender of last resort” itself tends to underline the fact that the “deposits” are, in fact, credit and not pure fiat.  The central bank is not actually “lending money” to banks under duress, it is merely inflating the amount of credit at their disposal.

Recall that when you make a payment from your ebanking account, the bank declares it will make the payment “provided there is sufficient credit” on your account.  It’s all credit, both in electronic form and paper form.

Nate continues:

Are we done?  No… no no no… we’re along way from done.   Remember.. Mises characterized fiat money by legal privilege.  Legal Privilege?   Consult the MisesWiki!  According to Hülsmann, there are four groups of legal privileges granted by the state (usually more than one is granted):

  1. legalized counterfeiting – the promises of banks are allowed to be more “elastic”. For example, a coin marked “an ounce of gold” will be allowed to have any amount of gold or none, and can have any meaning. Banknotes were named “promises to pay”, but were obscure on the details.
  2.  monopoly – only some monetary products may be produced by law, like a specific metal; or only the banknotes or coins of a certain bank. This limits the freedom of choice of users of money and benefits the producers and first recipients at the detriment of others.
  3. legal tender is a money, that must be accepted in exchanges under a predefined price. Some monies may be driven out of the market due to Gresham’s Law.
  4.  legalized suspension of payments allows banks to avoid paying their obligations, while receiving payments from their debtors. If a bank is freed from contractual obligations to redeem its money and it is also legal tender, its banknotes become genuine paper money. With legal privileges are the banks allowed to behave more irresponsibly, which increases moral hazard.

Here we get to the crux of Nate’s error.  Nate is correct to point out that the Federal Reserve’s credit money is declared to be legal tender and is legally privileged by the federal government.  In this sense, he is correct in saying that the US monetary system is fiat money.  However, this only is the wider sense in which the Mises Institute defines the term:

Often called paper money, fiat money is in a wider sense any money declared to be legal tender by government fiat (ie law). In the narrower sense used here, fiat money is an intrinsically useless good used as a means of payment and a storable object.

The narrower sense of fiat money is clearly the sense Mises was using the term when he declared “most of those kinds of money that are not commodity money must be classified as credit money” and questioned whether fiat money had ever existed.  And that narrower sense cannot possibly apply to the Federal Reserve notes, as most “dollars” are a) not a good, useless or otherwise, b) not a storable object, and c) not a risk-free convertible claim to real money.

Nate would be correct to claim credit money is fiat money in the wider sense, but then, I completely agree with that.  I am simply declaring that US currency is credit money that is not fiat money in the narrower sense.  Nate is incorrect to say that it is fiat money in the narrower sense, which is the sense that most people believe it to be.  Nate continues:

Now are we done?  Well… not really.  Because what I’ve done here isn’t intellectually honest, in the sense that I have not represented the whole of Vox’s point.  The reason I hated Chapter three is not because of confusing terms like fiduciary media.  Its because Credit Money itself is a category error.

Credit money is a description of leverage. But…  Leverage can be applied to all types of money….  Thus… Credit Money… is a subcategory.  Credit Money is what happens when you take money of any other type.. and then leverage it up for lending purposes….  Leverage is something that happens to Money Types.  It isn’t a money type itself.  Its like including cancer cells in a discussion of  human  cells because they form in the human body.  Cancer cells aren’t human cells.

We must always go back to competition.

Money is money because of the constant commodity competition   Every day the competition is on going… and every day one commodity is winning.  that one commodity that is winning… is the money.   The money types… are explanations of WHY the competition is being won.  Fiat money is fiat money because the government helped it win artificially and it wouldn’t have won otherwise.  Take away the government advantage… and its not the money anymore. Commodity money types?  Well they have no artificial government advantage.

That is the true definition of sound money.

Its money that wins the competition… every minute of every day…  the on going competition… not some past competition .. on its own without aid of the government.

All modern paper currencies are fiat money.

The bits that are loaned into creation from thin air?  Those are credit money too… but it is dishonest to ignore the fact that it is fiat money as well.  Loans may have created the individual dollar bills… but those dollar bills wouldn’t be money… if it wasn’t Fiat.

May God have Mercy on my soul…   Ludwig Von Mises… was wrong.  You cannot disregard the fiat nature of the original money… just because most of it was created through leverage.

So Fiat?  Shenanigans?

The answer is both.  Not one.  Not the other.   Both.  To fail to grasp that… will totally blind you to the inherit problems of our current economic system.  The money is fiat money and credit money.. because much of which was created via leverage… but also much of it was created through counterfeiting.   This is why I created the word “clusterfutastrophe” while attempting to parse the US money supply.

Nate is stumbling towards the truth here, which is that credit money is fiat money in the wider sense but not the narrower one, but is still stumbling.  He is still hung up on the basic concept of credit money, which is why he erroneously calls it a category error.  What he is failing to grasp is the central importance of credit in the monetary process, one which precedes the role that government plays in either guaranteeing the credit claims or establishing the legal privilege of those claims.

“When all exchanges have to be settled in ready cash, then the possibility of performing them by means of cancellation is limited to the case exemplified by the butcher and baker and only then on the assumption, which of course only occasionally hold good, that the demands of both parties are simultaneous. At the most, it is possible to imagine that several other persons might join in and so a small circle be built up within which drafts could be used for the settlement of transactions without the actual use of money. But even in this case simultaneity would still be necessary, and, several persons being involved, would be still seldomer achieved.

These difficulties could not be overcome until credit set business free from dependence on the simultaneous occurrence of demand and supply. This, in fact, is where the importance of credit for the monetary system lies. But this could not have its full effect so long as all exchange was still direct exchange, so long even as money had not established itself as a common medium of exchange. The instrumentality of credit permits transactions between two persons to be treated as simultaneous for purposes of settlement even if they actually take place at different times”
 – Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit, p. 282

The important aspect of credit is not its ability to be leveraged, which is a consequence of the characteristics of money rather than an integral aspect of credit, but rather its ability to transcend time.  It is the fact that the credit is a claim to money rather than to some other commodity that permits its expansion beyond the existing money supply.

“A person who has a thousand loaves of bread at his immediate disposal will not dare to issue more than a thousand tickets each of which gives its holder the right to demand at any time the delivery of a loaf of bread. It is otherwise with money…. The fact that is peculiar to money alone is not that mature and secure claims to money are as highly valued in commerce as the sums of money to which they refer, but rather that such claims are complete substitutes for money, and, as such, are able to fulfil all the functions of money in those markets in which their essential characteristics of maturity and security are recognized. It is this circumstance that makes. it possible to issue more of this sort of substitute than the issuer is always in a position to convert.  And so the fiduciary medium comes into being in addition to the money certificate. Fiduciary media increase the supply of money in the broader sense of the word; they are consequently able to influence the objective
exchange-value of money.”
 – Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit, p. 267

Note that the credit aspect not only predates the broader fiat aspects, but is, in fact, intrinsically necessary for the eventual expansion.  Nate concludes with a question

Its not that there is no money.   I already explained that there is always money.  Money…is like energy.  It cannot ever be destroyed.  It can change forms… its velocity can change.  But it cannot be destroyed.  The problem is… our system is so screwed up through fiat and leverage… that we can’t even measure the money supply any more.  Come Vox… be sensible… you’re absolutely right to point out that the leverage can’t be ignored… but you were wrong to suggest that the fiat aspects can.  Now tell us Vox…  What IS the best way to measure the abomination posing as the US money supply?  He asked knowingly…

First, I’ll point out that since we have a system “in which the actual transfer of money has been completely superseded by fiduciary media”, it doesn’t matter that we can’t measure the money supply anymore.  Because we’re no longer using actual money, we are merely using possibility of money in order to support the extensive system of potential claims to theoretical future money.  Or, as Nate rightly calls it, a financial abomination.  As strange as this sounds, it was anticipated at least 101 years ago, as Mises notes:

“Use is made of money, but not physical use of actually existing money or money substitutes. Money which is not present performs an economic function; it has its effect solely by reason of the possibility of its being able to be present.”

In answer to Nate’s question, the best way is to measure the sum total of all the current outstanding claims.  This is approximated in the Federal Reserve’s Z1 Flow of Funds Accounts, specifically the L1 credit market debt outstanding report.  And it is the expansion of this supply, though not strictly speaking “inflation” per se, that effects exchange value and therefore the prices of goods and services.