The Math of Attrition

Regardless of whom the Script dictates “wins” the US presidential “election” on Tuesday, or whenever the results are announced after the media has finished massaging the numbers we are supposed to take seriously, the financing for the Ukrainian war effort must be stopped immediately on humanitarian grounds. It was always inevitable and obvious that Ukraine was going to lose the war, the only question was whether it was going to give up a) Crimea, b) Crimea and the Donbas republics, c) Crimea, the Donbas republics, Odessa and everything east of the Dnieper, or d) all of Ukraine.

We’re already at (c) insofar as Russia has the ability to take it and/or demand it in the terms it requires for Ukraine’s surrender. The only question is if it is necessary for Ukraine to lose another 100,000+ lives and risk (d) before accepting the inevitable. For, as Simplicius calculates the attritional math, even if Zelensky is permitted to throw the young men and women of Ukraine into the Russian abattoir, it is not going to recover one single square meter of former Ukrainian land.

Using using all the above figures, if we know that total monthly mobilization is somewhere around 15,000 to 20,000 as per several independent reports. The wording he uses is a little odd: “one and a half times less”. But if we are to assume this is the same as “one and a half times greater” than the mobilization number, then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 22.5k and 30k monthly losses. This would be 750 to 1,000 losses per day… Recently, Ukrainian journalists again reported that over 100,000 have already deserted the AFU with the number now 380 desertions per day:

In general, it’s hard to imagine the AFU surviving such attrition rates for longer than 6 months. If they are recruiting 20k but losing 30k, that means the entire armed forces is essentially losing a net 10k men per month. In only 6 months that would be 10k x 6 = 60k, which would represent roughly one major city-front area, like a Bakhmut or Avdeevka. At 12 months it would be 120k, representing an entire front-region, like Zaporozhye, or the entire Donetsk front, etc. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon has now said Ukraine only has 6-12 months of troops left?

Remember, the same sources say Russia not only breaks even, but is gaining a net positive manpower per month, building new strength and brigades. If there’s any truth to both sides of those numbers, then it would not be physically possible for the AFU to survive past 6 months or so. Please note, all the above numbers and reports I presented on the AFU are from original Ukrainian sources like the Aidar commander—no speculation whatsoever.

However, recall that Zelensky still has a final trump card, which is lowering the mobilization age to 18-20. This could immediately buy him more time, but it could also bring some kind of revolt or social uprising in the country. It’s a risky move but it would obviously give Ukraine hundreds of thousands of more men, that could buy another year or so at the most.

War = math + manufacturing + morale. And Russia clearly has the comprehensive advantage of all three. There is no scenario, no plan of intervention, no rhetorical flurry, that is capable of significantly changing that without being countered and neutralized. Therefore, any continuation of this reprehensibly stupid attempt to prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving his objectives and ending the Special Military Operation is inhumane, immoral, and objectively wicked.

DISCUSS ON SG


Unexpected!

The polls were never meaningful, but they are just straight up fiction now.

Stunning poll reveals Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Trump in unexpected state as momentum swings to VP with three days left.

Sure it has. When literally nothing has happened and nothing has been done. What passes for “democracy” in America is now little more than a scripted fraud. Remember, Kamala couldn’t get more than one percent support in the Democratic primaries.

Pure fiction, no matter what “happens” in what is supposed to pass for an election next week.

DISCUSS ON SG


Yes, Commissioner

Japan has concluded a mutual security treaty… with the European Union:

Japan and the European Union announced a security and defense partnership on Friday as they seek to step up military ties, including joint exercises and exchanges between their defense industries, amid growing tensions with China, North Korea and Russia.

It is the first security partnership that the EU has concluded with an Indo-Pacific country, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters.

“We live in a very dangerous world. We live in a world of growing rivalries, climate accidents and threats of war. And there is only one antidote to this challenging world, which is partnerships among friends,” Borrell said. “It is an historical and very timely step given the situation in both of our regions.”

This is may be the most toothless defense treaty since the Anglo-Polish security agreement of 1939. I’m curious what a collection of mostly landlocked, bankrupt, economically-contracting satellites of the USA are supposed to do for the security and defense of an island nation on the other side of the world. It’s a pity they’re not filming Yes, Commissioner; they certainly could have gotten a very funny episode or two out of this one.

“Commissioner, North Korea has launched ballistic missiles at Tokyo!”

“Oh, have they now? We can’t have that! How dare they, when we’ve guaranteed the security of the Japanese people! Why, we’ve got a formal security and defense partnership with them!”

“Indeed, Ma’am. How shall we respond?”

“Well, what are our military options?”

“We have a battalion of Estonian special forces on 48-hour alert and two squadrons of French Mirage fighters ready for takeoff within one week.”

“How many is a battalion?”

“Well, a US battalion is usually around 600 men and women, of which 450 are actually deployable.”

“Why are only 450 deployable?”

“Because 150 of them are women. Once the women hear about the deployment, they’ll get pregnant. Which, of course, renders them undeployable.”

“Within 48 hours?”

“If necessary, they can manage it inside 24 hours, Ma’am. Now, a Russian Battalion Tactical Group has 600 men, all of whom are deployable. But, of course, they’re the enemy, so we can hardly send them.”

“Right. So, how many are in an Estonian battalion.”

“One, Ma’am.”

“One?”

“Yes, but I can assure you, he’s very highly trained and extremely capable.”

“I’m sure he is. Still, I don’t see what one man, however capable, can do about the North Koreans. I suppose we’ll have to send the French jets.”

“Oh, no, Ma’am. We can’t do that.”

“We can’t?”

“No, the French have very strict rules about not flying their planes anywhere they might be shot down.”

“I see. Well, in that case, then we shall have no choice but to send a very strongly-worded démarche to Pyongyang, in which we shall deplore their illegal actions and threaten them with sanctions.”

“Very good Ma’am. However, Ma’am?”

“Yes, Alphonse?”

“We cut economic ties with North Korea in 2002. There’s nothing left to sanction.”

“I see. That does present certain difficulties. Leave out the sanctions, then. Just the strongly-worded démarche. I think that will raise the spirits of our allies in Tokyo, don’t you?”

“Yes, Commissioner.”

Of course, this is not the first time Berlin and Rome have allied with Tokyo…

DISCUSS ON SG


The Theft of Kola Coca

Coca-Cola is not an American invention. It’s just another fraudulent story of fake history meant to cover the theft of intellectual property by 19th century US citizens.

Coca-Cola, originally called Kola Coca, was invented more than 140 years ago in a small town in Spain, the creators of the formula for the world’s best-selling soft drink having been cheated of its ownership and billions of dollars. The process was a well-kept secret at the time and quickly became a world-famous product, winning dozens of international gold medals and other awards. Unfortunately, Bautista Aparici, one of the company’s founders, attended a trade fair in Philadelphia and made the mistake of giving a sample and a brief description of the process to an American he happened to meet, and a short time later US pharmacist John Pemberton changed the name to Coca-Cola and patented the product and process, the US government refusing to recognise the original Spanish patent.

The official story is that this drink was “invented by Dr. John Smith Pemberton on May 8, 1886, at Atlanta, Georgia”, in the USA, and was named Coca-Cola because at that time it contained extracts of Coca leaves and Kola nuts, and that the company’s book-keeper renamed the drink because he thought the two ‘C’s’ would look better in advertising. None of that is true. The drink was indeed made from kola nuts and coca leaves, but the new name was a cheap attempt to differentiate itself after Pemberton stole and patented the original formula. All the stories about Pemberton inventing Coke’s secret formula in his laboratory are fabricated nonsense, with the company’s website cleverly designed to airbrush out the drink’s early history and avoid the truth becoming known. Beverage World magazine produced a special issue to commemorate the one-hundredth (American) anniversary of Coca-Cola, claiming Coke was:

“A totally American product born of a solid idea, nurtured throughout the past century with creative thinking and bold decision-making, and always plenty of good old-fashioned hard work. That is as it should be; it is the American way”.

Not by a long shot. Coca-Cola is just one of hundreds of products the Americans have stolen and patented with the full protection of their courts operating under the peculiarly American definition of ‘rule of law’. It isn’t widely-known, though well-documented, that for decades surrounding the turn of the last century, the US government offered between $20,000 and $50,000 to anyone who could steal a foreign patent or product, that amount representing a lifetime’s earnings for an average person.

To add insult to injury, Coca-Cola moved into Spain in 1953, sued the original Spanish owners, then bullied, extorted and bought the rights for a pittance, permitting the firm to continue producing only a single alcoholic beverage under their name. USA Today reported on this without even a hint of regret or shame about the rule of law or fair play or the evils of IP theft. Their only comment: “The Spanish factory has just four employees left and probably won’t last another generation.” Even more insultingly, ABC News dismisses this story as “The Spanish firm that inspired Coke”, although they do state correctly the claim: “Locals believe that the Spanish town of Aielo de Malferit is where Coca-Cola originated — and that the factory which developed the formula that inspired the world’s best-selling soda has been cheated of its rightful place in history. Not to mention profits.”

At this point, given the number of proven frauds that are an integral part of “American history”, it is absolutely logical to conclude that the Moon landings never happened, and even in the unlikely event that they did take place, it wasn’t Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin who actually landed on the Moon first.

As for what this says about other significant historical myths perpetuated by The Narrative, well, we wouldn’t want to violate any laws by practicing our nonexistent “right” to free speech. So, we’ll just continue to not talk about things that never happened.

The more we learn to separate fact from fiction, the more we discover that the USA has been part of The Empire That Never Ended, also known as The Empire of Lies, from its inception.

DISCUSS ON SG


Foreigners and Women

The recently defeated “Conservative” Party turns to an African women to rescue them from the political hole which their previous Indian leader dug for them.

Kemi Badenoch insisted it is ‘time to get down to business’ today after being named the new Tory leader.

The shadow housing secretary emerged victorious over rival Robert Jenrick as the result of a ballot of party members was announced in central London.

In her speech, Ms Badenoch paid tribute to Rishi Sunak and also praised Mr Jenrick’s ‘energy’.

But she acknowledged that the previous government had ‘let standards slip’ and the party must woo back voters. ‘The time has come to tell the truth, to stand up for our principles, to plan for the future,’ she said. Appealing for Mr Jenrick and other senior figures to join her top team, she told him: ‘You and I know we don’t actually disagree on very much… We have come through this campaign more united.’

Ms Badenoch said Keir Starmer had given the Tories an opportunity with his shaky start. ‘The PM is discovering all-too late the perils of not having such a plan,’ she said. Ms Badenoch received 53,806 votes to 41,388 for Mr Jenrick – 53 per cent to 47 per cent, closer than many expected. Turnout was only 72.8 per of the 131,000 activists.

She is the first black leader of a major UK political party.

One can’t help but recall a few pertinent verses from the Bible.

  • The foreigner who is among you will mount up above you higher and higher, and you will come down lower and lower.
  • As for my people, children are their oppressors, and women rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths.

Perhaps the Conservative Party leadership of Ms Badenoch will turn out well for the British people, but even considering the rapacious economic oppression which has been announced by the ruling Labour Party, which plans to force family farms to sell out to developers through its new inheritance taxes, I’m not terribly optimistic about the current state of the opposition.

As a general rule, history has repeatedly demonstrated that putting a foreigner in charge of anything from a local council to a cabinet ministry tends to immediately result in the adoption of a new policy of importing more foreigners. And this never works out well for the natives.

DISCUSS ON SG



Dedollarization Proceeds

12 Hours ago, Russia shut down the gas pipeline to Poland and Bulgaria for refusing to pay in Rubles.

10 Hours ago, Poland AGREES to pay in Rubles

6 Hours ago, Bulgaria and Austria agree to pay in Rubles

5 Hours ago, the European Commission authorized European Countries to pay for gas in Rubles . . . .

So much for the efficacy of sanctions. Money is influence. Natural resources is power.

DISCUSS ON SG


That Would Wake You

In more ways than one. Tucker Carlson publicly states that he was physically attacked by a demonic force:

In a just-released video interview, Tucker Carlson recounts how he suffered a bloody attack by a demon while asleep in bed – an event that he says led him to purchase and read and reread the Bible.

“It was a transformative experience,” the renowned podcast host said.

“I got attacked while I was asleep with my wife and four dogs in the bed … and mauled. Physically mauled by a demon,” Carlson said, “or by something unseen that left claw marks on my sides.”

Carlson said that now, a year and half later, the marks on his sides are still visible.

“I woke up. I couldn’t breathe. I thought I was going to suffocate,” he explained. “I had these terrible pains on my rib cage and on my shoulder.”

Uncertain about what had just happened, Carlson walked into the bathroom, flicked on the light, and saw that he had “four claw marks on either side, underneath my arms and on my left shoulder. And they were bleeding.”

“I’m not from a world where things like that happen. I never heard of anything like that happening before,” he emphasized, but “I knew it was spiritual immediately.”

“I’m not from a faith tradition that talks about things like that or even acknowledges their existence,” Carlson said. “I’ve never heard anybody say anything like that in my whole life.”

“The next morning, I woke up and thought, ‘That was the weirdest dream I’ve ever had.’ And then I saw blood on my sheets and realized that was not a dream at all.”

It’s always a shock for any individual to realize that the spiritual world described in the Bible isn’t a metaphor, it isn’t a conceptual model, and it isn’t an invention of Man. It’s real, it’s powerful, and it’s why Jesus Christ is absolutely necessary; there isn’t one single other religion that even begins to address the observable problem of material evil the way that Christianity does.

Which isn’t to say that all other religions are entirely false. Some of them worship demons, others worship fallen angels, and a few worship the god of this world himself.

For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms.
– Ephesians 6:12

DISCUSS ON SG


You Know It’s Going Well

When retreat is not an option, defeat is an inevitability:

The Ukrainian military has reportedly instructed soldiers to avoid using the term “retreat” in communication with the press, according to a reporter from RFE/RL, the US state-run foreign media network.

In an interview with Kiev’s Radio NV, on Wednesday, Vlasta Lazur shared insights gathered from recent conversations with Ukrainian troops and their commanders.

“I spoke with a soldier on the Pokrovsk front,” Lazur said. “He said, ‘We received orders to use the words ‘offensive,’ ‘victory,’ ‘moving forward,’ and ‘driving out the enemy’ when communicating with journalists. But I can’t say the word ‘retreat’ or that the enemy has breached our defenses.’”

Anyone who has even a modicum of fighting or sports experience knows that temporary retreats are always necessary, and an intrinsic element of engaging in conflict at any level. The fighter who never retreats is one who leads with his face. The general who never retreats is one who soon finds himself cut off from reinforcements and logistics, and is certain to be surrounded and forced to surrender.

We’ve already seen the Ukrainian version of the Ardennes Offensive in Kursk. Now we’re witnessing the Kiev’s regime’s mediacentric version of the 1941 Fuhrerbefehl that banned any retreat from Moscow. First tragedy, then farcical tragedy.

The media doesn’t understand even the first thing about war. When Putin was mocked for months because the Russians withdrew from Kiev, and later, from part of Kherson, what was characterized as “a humiliating setback” was nothing more than saving one’s forces and correctly prioritizing men and material over territory that couldn’t be held anyhow.

Only Gammas and women with neither sporting nor martial experience believe that it’s necessary to win every single skirmish, encounter, and battle to win the war. The reason Arthur Wellington is arguably the greatest general in history is because he faced a situation on the Peninsula where one single lost battle would have cost him the war, but he always managed to extricate his army from situations where the odds were against him.

DISCUSS ON SG


Strategic Dissipation

Big Serge explains why Ukraine has already lost its war:

Ukraine’s overarching strategic concept would appear to be pulling in two directions. Verbally, Zelensky has tied the prospects for negotiations to a de-escalation of the war on Russia’s part (while excluding categorically any negotiations relevant to Russia’s own war aims), but Ukraine’s own actions – attempting to double down on both long range strikes and a ground incursion into Russia – are escalatory, as are the various demands made of NATO in the peace plan. There’s a certain measure of strategic schizophrenia here, which all stems from the fact that Ukraine’s own concept of victory is far beyond its military means. Western observers have suggested that a prerequisite for negotiations ought to be the stabilization of Ukraine’s defenses in the Donbas – which in substance means containing and freezing the conflict – but the Ukrainian effort to expand and unlock the front with the Kursk incursion runs directly contrary to this.

The result is that Ukraine is now waging war as if – as if NATO intervention can eventually be provoked, as if Russia will crack and walk away from vast territories that it already controls, and as if western assistance can provide a panacea for Ukraine’s deteriorating state on the ground. It all adds up to a blind plunge forward in the abyss, hoping that by escalating and radicalizing the conflict either Russia will break or NATO will step in. In either scenario, however, Ukraine is counting on powers external to it, trusting that NATO will provide a sort of deus ex machina that rescues Ukraine from ruination.

Ukraine stands today as a stark example of strategic dissipation. Having opted to eschew anything less than the most maximalist sort of victory – full re-attainment of the 1991 borders, NATO membership, and the total defeat of Russia – it now proceeds full speed ahead, with a material base and a gloomy picture on the ground that is utterly unmoored from its own conception of victory. The “victory plan”, such as it exists, is little more than a plea for rescue. It is a country trapped by the two myths that animate its being – on the one hand, the notion of total western military supremacy, and on the other the theory of Russia as a giant with feet of clay, primed to collapse internally from the strain of a war that it is winning…

Taken as a whole, the events of 2024 are immensely positive for Russia and frightening for Ukraine. The AFU began the year trying to weather the storm in Avdiivka. In the intervening time, the front has moved from the doorstep of Donetsk, where the AFU still held its chain of prewar fortresses, all the way to the doorstep of Pokrovsk. Cities like Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, which previously functioned as rear area operational hubs, are now frontline positions, with the latter likely to be captured by years end. Ukraine’s great gambit to unlock the front by attacking Kursk was defeated in the opening days of the operation, with AFU mechanized elements jammed up at Korenevo.

None of this is even remotely a surprise. The Western media’s coverage of the war has been execrable, ignorant, and misleading, to such an extent that even some experienced military observers were, at least for a time, misled with regards to Ukraine’s chances.

The only real surprise has been how long Ukraine’s foreign rulers have been permitted to sacrifice the people of Ukraine in the interests of Clown World. It’s truly astonishing that the hatred for Russia is apparently so great that the now-openly illegitimate Kiev regime has been able to avoid being overthrown by the Ukrainians.

But the end is coming. Probably not before the end of this year, almost certainly before the end of 2025.

DISCUSS ON SG