Simplicius dutifully reports what appears more like a Ukrainian fever dream than the leaked US peace plan that it is purported to be:
▪️Trump plans to have a telephone conversation with Putin in late January – early February. He also wants to discuss the situation in Ukraine with its authorities.
▪️Based on the results of the negotiations, a decision may be made to continue or suspend the dialogue.
▪️Volodymyr Zelensky must cancel the decree that prohibits negotiations with Putin.
▪️A meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky may take place in February or the first half of March. It is not yet clear whether this will be a trilateral meeting or two separate ones. The meeting is planned to discuss the main parameters of the peace plan.
▪️Starting April 20, a ceasefire is planned to be declared along the entire front line, and all Ukrainian troops will be withdrawn from the Kursk region.
▪️An international peace conference is set to begin at the end of April to formalize an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to end the conflict. The United States, China, and a number of countries in Europe and the Global South will act as mediators.
▪️Also at this time, the exchange of prisoners will begin according to the formula “all for all”.
▪️By May 9, a declaration of the conference on the end of the conflict should be published. Martial law and mobilization will not be extended in Ukraine, and presidential elections will be held at the end of August.
➖ What is included in the agreement?
▪️Ukraine does not seek to return the territories that were liberated by Russia, either militarily or diplomatically, but at the same time does not officially recognize Russia’s sovereignty over these territories.
▪️Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and declares its neutrality. The decision that Ukraine will not be accepted into the alliance must be confirmed at the NATO summit.
▪️Ukraine will become a member of the European Union by 2030. The EU is committed to rebuilding the country after the war.
▪️The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decreasing, and the United States is modernizing the Ukrainian army.
▪️After the conclusion of the peace agreement, some anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, and restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted.
▪️Parties that defend the Russian language and advocate peaceful relations with Russia should participate in the elections in Ukraine. The persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church will also cease.
▪️Separate consultations will be held on the issue of EU peacekeepers.
Very little of this makes any sense. NATO holds no significant cards. Russia can accomplish everything that is being offered to it here without the need to agree with either Washington or Kiev. As a starting point to signal a willingness to negotiate a surrender, it’s just barely plausible, but it’s not even remotely close to what Russia would expect to achieve through negotiations.
As Simplicius himself observers: In short: the deal above is a non-starter should it actually appear in even a remotely similar form; it is the mere deluded fantasy of the West to even think Russia needs to stop fighting any time soon, at a time when major Ukrainian strongholds are folding like cheap lawn chairs on a daily basis.
Some of the missing elements:
- Demilitarization of Ukraine
- Odessa
- The withdrawal of NATO from all countries bordering Russia, especially Finland and the Baltics.
- Compensatory payments for sanctions and seizures.
- Future non-interference in Ukrainian and Eastern European elections by US, EU, and Western NGOs.
At the rate that Ukraine is losing territory and soldiers, there soon isn’t going to be any point to negotiations. No amount of bluster by President Trump or anyone else is going to change the facts on the ground.