Neither markets nor economies proceed in straightforward linear fashion. But they do tend to unfold in recognizable historical patterns. While technical analysis often appears to be little more than geometric witchdoctory, the time to sit up and pay attention is when the technical analysis is supported by the observable economic situation.
Self-serving economists in the financial media always like to pretend after the fact that no one can reasonably foresee economic catastrophe on the horizon. But the reality is that it is usually quite obvious if you know what to look for. For example, the seeds of the financial crisis of September 2008 were already apparent to practically everyone who was paying attention in March of that year. In like manner, it has been clear from the start that if the two financial stimulus plans of 2008 and 2009 were not successful in kick-starting the American economy, it would finally have to be admitted that the country is locked in a severe state of economic contraction that is most accurately described as a depression.