I had to add this to PROBABILITY ZERO, my new #1 bestseller in Biology, Genetics, and Evolution at the last second, simply because it made my point about the fact that evolutionary biologists don’t even think about the math or the timescales involved at all. Forget actually doing the math, it never even occurs to them that if things happen in a certain way, and in a certain order, then there are always going to be hard time limits for those things to happen.
Remember, according to the current scientific consensus, there are between 6 and 7 million years for 20 million base pairs to fixate throughout the entire human population. Based on my necessary Bio-Cycle correction to the bacteria-based Kimura fixation model, that leaves 146,250 generations to fixate all of those base pairs. Set aside for now whether that is possible or not, the point here is to demonstrate how wildly off-base the evolutionary biologists are, and keep in mind that Richard Dawkins wrote this in 2024, five years AFTER I’d already laid out the mathematical impossibility of natural selection in my original MITTENS post.
JBS Haldane made a relevant hypothetical calculation. He assumed a selection pressure in favour of a new mutation so weak as to seem trivial: for every 1,000 individuals with the mutation who survive, 999 individuals without the mutation will survive. That selection pressure is much too weak to be detected by scientists working in the field. Given Haldane’s assumption, how long will it take for such a new mutation to spread through half the population? His answer was a mere 11,739 generations if the gene is dominant, 321,444 generations if it is recessive. In the case of many animals, that number of generations is an eye-blink by geological standards.
—Richard Dawkins, The Genetic Book of the Dead (2024)
Dawkins somehow imagines that even 642,888 generations for one single base pair is more than enough time for evolution to take place. He’s off by a mere factor of 4.4 x 20 million, or 87,916,307x.
That’s how bad the state of evolutionary biology is. That’s how absurdly clueless their famous, bestselling scientists are.