In response to Russia’s military victories in Ukraine, the desperate and unpopular leaders of the European Union’s member-states are getting increasingly bellicose with regards to Russia.
- Berlin is prepared for a war with Moscow and stands ready to facilitate the deployment of 800,000 NATO troops towards the Russian border, the head of the nation’s joint operations command, Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank, has said.
- Swedish Prime Minister calls for ‘long-term isolation’ of Russia. Ulf Kristersson has pledged to contribute to the military budgets of European NATO members, citing the alleged threat from Moscow.
- The Belgian military has sent 149,000 letters to all 17-year-olds in the country, outlining the benefits and encouraging them to consider a year of voluntary service once they turn 18, Defense Minister Theo Francken has announced.
Which, I suspect, is why Russia has stepped up its campaign to turn off the lights and heat in Ukraine.
Last night Russia struck Ukraine with what is being called the largest ballistic missile attack of the entire nearly-four-year-long war. Ukraine’s main energy authority reported literally every one of their thermal power plants was down in the country amid widespread blackouts.
I think this was the most perspicacious take on the increased size of the attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid.
The purpose of the energy grid strikes isn’t to take out the grid, but to 1) create problems, tension and lots of busywork for the ukrainian rear, 2) bring the grid to the edge, to a point where a single strike package targeting 750 kVs and NPPs could take it out for real, 3) as a consequence of 2), be ready to escalate at a moment’s notice once a “third party” comes into play. I think people severely underestimate how much Russian planning goes into preparing for the eventual open NATO/EU entry into the war. it’s also a demonstration for the latter to disincentivize that. “look at how much stuff in europe we could be blowing up every single night and there’s nothing you could do against it, so stay the fuck out”
Neither 800,000 troops nor universal military drafts can protect the European states against Russia destroying all of their electrical grids and literally putting Europeans right back into the dark ages without risking a single Russian soldier’s life. The fundamental vulnerability of Europe was revealed by the Germans’ foolish decision to stop buying Russian gas, and the intrinsically industrial nature of attritional 5GW illustrates how shutting down the grid is directly related to eliminating a military’s ability to produce the drones it needs to fight.
NATO not only cannot hope to win a war with Russia, but the advent of 5GW means that NATO cannot even defend the European standard of living against a Russian decision to reduce it to below the first-world standards of the last fifty years.
Ukraine has already been reduced to moving its drone factories outside of Ukraine in order to keep manufacturing them. Russia is now making it very clear that if the EU doesn’t stand down and stay out of the war, it will eliminate the EU’s very ability to wage war without even needing to invade any of the EU’s member states.