After all the various debates about what would comprise the next generation of warfare, the recent conflicts between Armenia and Azherbaijan, Russia and Ukraine, and Iran and Israel have made it abundantly clear that it is drone warfare that is the Fifth Generation of War:
Last night, Russia also launched one of the largest strikes of the war, when you count total assets used. The missile count was relatively low, but the drones numbered nearly 500 Shaheds and other decoys in total, which is likely a record for single day usage. Counting missiles, it was well over 500+ units launched in one night. The attacks wreaked havoc on various sites, from Ukrainian airports, to energy infrastructure in Poltava, the Drohobich refinery in Lvov, and Kremenchug oil refinery as well.
But most eye-opening was the new statement from top Ukrainian radio-electronics expert Serhiy ‘Flash’ Beskrestnov. He is rarely alarmist, so the urgent tone raised quite a few eyebrows in Ukraine What he’s referring to are the predictions that Russian production capabilities for Shahed drones would soon reach levels allowing Russia to launch upwards of 500-700 of these drones per night, as they did last night.
Not only that, but both Ukrainian and Russian sources indicate that most casualties are inflicted by drones, and two-thirds of those casualties are in the logistical zone outside of the traditional battlefield.
UKRAINE: FPVs represent 49%, artillery only 13.6%, with Russian Kab/Fab bombs only 3.7%. More specifically, they distinguish that 35% of FPV hits are on troops in positions, such as trenches and foxholes, while 65% are hits on roads, i.e. vehicles or troops in transit. For the record, the full list in the left column is: FPV, artillery, infantry, drone-dropped mines, mortars, Kab/Fab, and Lancets.
RUSSIA: The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the combat contact line are only 35%, and 65% are in logistics in the 20-kilometer zone form the contact line. Russian units are knocking out most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ manpower during rotation with the help of drones.
This extension of the zone of lethality has significantly expanded the effective size of the battlefield. Unlike many previously suggested concepts, this expansion is truly indicative of a fundamental transformation of the way in which war is now waged and therefore worthy of the designation as Fifth Generation War.
The Commandant of the Marine Corps once said: “Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.” But with the recent expansion of the combat zone, tactics and logistics tactics are now being fused into a single concept that will have to be addressed by new military doctrines and mastered by a new breed of military officers.