An interview with a retired Russian general may provide us with a clear sign that the next major Russian offensive is about to begin:
I interviewed retired Lt. General Evgeny Buzhinsky, who served in the International Treaty Department of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Russian Ministry of Defense. I asked him specifically about the importance, or lack thereof, of the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian airfields that host some of Russia’s strategic bombers. He said that people should not read too much into his public silence on the matter because Putin viewed this act as a betrayal by London and Washington of the New Start Agreement. The General specifically said, “Putin was furious.” The General went on to say that this moment marked the closest that the United States and Russia have come to the brink of nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis.
I talking to the General I also gleaned some other important insights into Russia’s military strategy. When I asked, “Why hasn’t Russia destroyed the bridges over the Dnieper River, which would cutoff the Ukrainian army from its vital logistics needs?” he laughed and said, “I have wondered that myself.”
But then he went on to explain what he believed was the reason. “If Russia had destroyed the bridges early on in the Special Military Operation, it would have left the bulk of Ukraine’s army intact on the west side of the river.” So, now? Destroying the bridges may now make sense. It will cut off what is left of Ukraine’s army and facilitate Russia gaining control of all of Eastern Ukraine.
We already know that Russia is intending to escalate and its forces have already entered two of the five additional provinces it intends to acquire, Sumy and Dnepropetrovsk. But it hasn’t yet begun the sort of Zhukovesque mass offensive that is intended to make the entire enemy front collapse for which the UFA appears to be primed.
If Gen. Buzhinsky’s observations are correct, then we can expect mass missile strikes taking down the bridges over the Dnieper to take place if and when any large scale summer offensive is about to be launched. At that point, everything east of the river will be transformed into one massive cauldron that will probably result in the largest mass surrender of military forces since WWII.
Now, the Russians could clearly continue their strategy of constantly nibbling away at the front lines and gradually accomplishing their goals over an extended period of time, but that would require another 2-3 years, and the fact that the Kiev regime’s provocations are getting more and more desperate tends to indicate that it would be unwise to place any confidence in the West’s sanity or restraint. Which is why I expect to see this summer an offensive of unexpectedly massive proportions and from at least one unexpected direction that will transform the situation on the ground in a matter of weeks rather than years, because that is the hallmark of the Russian way of war.
And while such an offensive will panic the Europeans and run a small risk of triggering direct conflict with one or more NATO countries, it will set the stage for a surrender that is capable of significantly lower the tension in Eastern Europe. Which, I think, is a much safer bet than letting MI-6 and the CIA conspire with the Kiev regime in repeated attempts to trigger nuclear war.