The recent air battle between India and Pakistan does not bode well for the US military’s chances against China in the South Pacific:
China was building a “Kill Chain” against any US military intervention near China’s shores. The Kill Chain was focused on what Brose termed “Assassin’s Mace” – asymmetrical weapon systems, primarily hypersonic missiles, that could prevent US forces in its Western Pacific military bases, aircraft carrier groups, and strike fighters from approaching the theatres of operations that include Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Such a strategy is called Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD).
In the recent India Pakistan air combat, we have witnessed an indirect manifestation of the Chinese military concept and capabilities, which is the driving force behind Pakistan’s stellar combat performance.
The battlefield actions clearly show that China has evolved from the linear “kill chain” to a “kill web” that integrates diverse platforms, sensors, and weapons across domains to create overlapping, resilient attack vectors, ensuring mission success even in high intensity combat environment.
The systems warfare in the India Pakistan air combat consists of Chinese J-10C fighters, PL-15E air to air missile, HQ-9P air defense systems, and EDK-03 early warning aircrafts. These weapon systems executed a perfect triangulated attack vector now referred to as the ABC kill web: A (HQ-9P) – detect, B (J-10C) – shoot, and C (EDK-03) – guide. This beyond-visual-range kill web took down multiple expensive Indian fighter jets without losses of any own assets.
Such sensor-shooter fusion technology is the defining feature of future air combat.
Of course, the India Pakistan air combat demonstrated only a few elements of the multi-domain full Kill Web that China has developed. Also the weapon systems used by the Pakistan air force is a full generation behind what is deployed at the PLA.
China’s full A2/AD platform encompasses a comprehensive suite of weaponry and systems, including various air and naval assets, hypersonic missiles, and other novel weapons such as the one-of-a-kind CH-T1 Ground Effect UAV (which I’ll discuss in a separate article).
China’s warfighting doctrine and capabilities have evolved much further than the Kill Chain described by Brose 5 years ago. The Kill Web is a multi-layered, redundant, and networked arsenal to achieve mission objectives in China’s A2AD strategy.
In early 2022, I pointed out, contra experts like Lind and Van Creveld, that Russia was going to win the war in Ukraine. There certainly weren’t any politicians or generals across the West who agreed with me. Now I’m pointing out, as I have for some time now, that the USA will lose any war it chooses to fight with China in the South Pacific.
Somehow, I doubt the politicians and generals will pay me any more heed than they did three years ago.