At this point, I have to assume that Putin and his advisors are quite cheerfully assuming that the Kiev regime and its EU supporters don’t have the brains or the courage to quit when they’re behind.
In return for recognition and if it happened “in the near future”, Kommersant said Putin would undertake not to lay claim to the Ukrainian port city of Odessa and other Ukrainian territory.
Keep in mind Kommersant is not a ‘tabloid’ or rag, but one of Russia’s most respected publications. So, if we are to believe the claim above, Putin is essentially giving the West and Ukraine a short window of time to accept the current territories, or risk having Odessa be included in the official demands.
This obviously fully goes along with Putin’s previous more ‘vague’ statements, echoed by the likes of Lavrov et al, about how Ukraine’s terms would progressively worsen over time, should they refuse to accept Russia’s current ‘generous’ ones. But recall that in the last report, we’ve already mentioned how Ukraine is getting increasingly antsy over potential ‘secret talks’ between Putin and Trump on the Odessa bargaining chip:
As Forbes further notes, the Kommersant journalist claims Putin said “and other regions” besides Odessa, which could obviously point to Kharkov and the like. But Russia could change its mind and decide to close this window short:
However, the point at which Russia is ready to abandon its claims to Odessa and other territories with the recognition of the Crimea, the LPR, DPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions may also move, the correspondent notes. “They don’t have time to dig in,” Putin said at the meeting.
I suspect this is just Russia being polite in a diplomatic context. While Kiev and Brussels are still posturing about recovering the Crimea and the four liberated republics, and the USA is hoping to keep the new borders more or less where they are, Russia has been preparing a spring offensive that will almost certainly acquire Odessa and Eastern Ukraine. The statement strikes me as the sort of fair warning that you give a ranting lunatic, not for his sake, but in order to demonstrate to everyone after the fact that you gave him the opportunity to avoid the inevitable consequences.
And, of course, you do so with confidence that he’s going to ignore it and continue pursuing the conflict.
There is absolutely no chance that the Ukro-European alliance is going to prevent Russia from doing whatever Putin believes to be necessary. The increasing importance of drone warfare, which is increasingly replacing artillery as the queen of the battlefield, is making industrial capacity even more important, so much so that it has almost certainly changed the balance of power in Asia in the infantry context; the USA will not be able to match China on either the ground or the sea now.
Furthermore, most analysts seem to stubbornly ignore that in addition to the USA is stepping back from propping up Europe’s militaries, Russia has the ability to vastly expand its already-formidable military resources by calling on China, Iran, and North Korea for manufacturing support at any time. This is not an option that is open to Europe, with the possible exception of India.
As I have repeatedly pointed out, the absolute best strategy at this juncture is for the Kiev regime to surrender unconditionally and appeal to the mercy of a man who has proven himself to be considerably more far-sighted than any of the European or US leaders. Putin knows from the declining power of the USA and the collapse of the Soviet Union that a hostile occupation of Western Ukraine or Eastern Europe is not in Russia’s interest.
But I very much doubt anyone in Kiev, Brussels, or Washington DC has the sense to accept the brutal mathematics of war. Which is why I expect Odessa to be in Russian hands before the end of the year.