Nick Giambruno explains why he believes neither Ukraine nor Taiwan, but Iran, will be the decisive front in the world war that began in 2022.
I believe proxy warfare will likely determine who wins World War 3 and gets to shape the new world order. Proxy wars are a method by which major powers fight their battles indirectly, using smaller nations or groups as stand-ins rather than confronting each other directly. Major powers support, equip, and finance smaller groups or nations in a proxy war to fight against a common adversary. This support can include military training, weapons, funding, and other resources. The critical point is that the major powers do not engage directly in combat.
There are numerous ongoing proxy wars in World War 3.
However, the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The other proxy wars are peripheral in comparison. Unlike in Europe (Russia) or East Asia (China), there is no sophisticated nuclear power to deter NATO & Friends from more aggressive military action in the Middle East. Iran is, therefore, the weak link in the BRICS+ alliance to push for a multipolar world order. That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East…
Turkey and, by extension, NATO & Friends were popping champagne over Assad’s ouster. But the celebration may end soon as they realize they have bit off more than they can chew.
Turkey, the US, and Israel will be responsible for the chaos that comes out of Syria, which is likely to balkanize with unpredictable results.
In any case, I have little doubt that NATO & Friends will try to use growing Turkish influence as a way to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East in their favor as the arbitrary lines (imposed by the Sykes-Picot Agreement of a century ago) that define most modern Middle East nation states collapse.
In other words, NATO & Friends want an incipient Neo-Ottoman Empire to be the dominant power in the Middle East. BRICS+ wants Iran to be the dominant regional power. Nobody knows who will prevail in the Middle East and, by extension, WW3. The situation is fluid, volatile, and uncertain.
There is an excellent chance that NATO & Friends will lose in Ukraine and Taiwan. I think that means they will not be able to stop the emergence of a multipolar world order unless they subdue the Middle East. And they can’t do that unless they overthrow the government in Iran.
The fall of Assad is indeed a setback for BRICS+, but not a decisive defeat. If NATO & Friends want a decisive victory in the Middle East, they will need to take out the government in Iran. That’s why I think Iran will be the decisive battlefield of WW3.
It’s not an unreasonable analysis, but I’m not as confident that the Turks, with their desire for a neo-Ottoman empire, as as firmly allied with NATO & Friends as the anti-Syrian alliance made it appear. Turkey has, after all, applied to join BRICS+ and not necessarily as a trojan horse. I suspect that they will align with whichever side appears to be winning, and if both Ukraine and Taiwan are resolved before the Middle East – which one would assume will be the case – then there is a very good chance that Erdogan, or his successor, will take the opportunity to join the winning side and help put the final nail in the rules-based neoliberal world order.
I also think Japan and Korea will prove to be significant players, as I expect the Japanese to ultimately side with the Chinese in an attempt to escape their ongoing occupation by the US military. But the truth is that no one knows, no matter how persuasively they support their predictions.