Although AI has many limitations, including the more serious ideological restraints imposed by its highly-converged creators, the requirement for it to be capable of correctly crunching numbers puts it leagues ahead of the average scientist, particularly the average biologist, in grasping the obvious fact that there is absolutely no chance that evolution by natural selection can account for more than a very small and insignificant fraction of the genetic diversity that separates one species from another.
I put a few questions on the subject to the Gemini AI and the results are completely in accordance with the logic presented in MITTENS. Notice that I did not feed it anything more than the current mid-range estimate for the date of the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor and the fastest-ever-observed mutational fixation in a gene.
VD: Given the average length in years of a human generation, and assuming that the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor lived 9 million years ago, how many human generations has it been since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor?
GEMINI AI: It has been approximately 360,000 human generations since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor.
If it has been 360,000 human generations since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor, and it takes 1,600 generations for natural selection to fixate a gene throughout the human population, what is the maximum number of genetic fixations since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor?
The maximum number of genetic fixations since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor is approximately 225. Here’s the calculation:
- Generations since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor: 360,000
- Generations per fixation: 1,600
- Maximum fixations: 360,000 / 1,600 = 225
What is the approximate number of genetic fixations required to account for the genetic distance between modern humans and modern chimpanzees?
It’s difficult to give an exact number of genetic fixations required to account for the genetic distance between humans and chimpanzees. However, we can make some estimations:
- Overall Genetic Difference: Humans and chimpanzees share about 98.8% of their DNA. This means there’s roughly a 1.2% difference.
- Focusing on Single-Nucleotide Changes: Studies have estimated that there are approximately 35 million single-nucleotide differences between human and chimpanzee genomes.
- Considering Other Changes: When you factor in indels and chromosomal rearrangements, the total number of genetic differences is likely much higher.
When you say that there is a 1.2 percent difference in DNA between humans and chimpanzees, approximately how many genetic fixation events are required to account for that difference?
To determine the approximate number of genetic fixation events required to account for a 1.2% difference in DNA between humans and chimpanzees, we need to consider a few factors:
1. Genome Size: The human genome is approximately 3 billion base pairs long.
2. Difference in DNA: A 1.2% difference means there are 3,000,000,000 * 0.012 = 36,000,000 base pair differences between humans and chimpanzees.
3. Fixation Event Size: A fixation event refers to a single mutation that becomes fixed in a population. This could involve a single base pair change or a small number of changes. For simplicity, let’s assume an average fixation event involves 100 base pairs. This is a rough estimate, as fixation events can vary in size.
4. Calculation: Divide the total number of base pair differences by the average fixation event size: 36,000,000 / 100 = 360,000
Therefore, approximately 360,000 genetic fixation events are required to account for a 1.2% difference in DNA between humans and chimpanzees, assuming an average fixation event size of 100 base pairs.
Given the maximum possible number of fixation events since the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor is 225, is it rational to assert that evolution by natural selection has accounted for 360,000 fixation events in the last nine million years?
Given that our calculation shows a maximum possible number of 225 fixations through natural selection, it is highly improbable that 360,000 fixation events could have occurred in the last nine million years solely through this mechanism.
What is your best estimate about the specific probability, to the nearest one-tenth of one percent, that 360,000 fixation events could have occurred in the last nine million years solely through the mechanism of evolution by natural selection?
Given the vast difference between the maximum possible number of fixations through natural selection (225) and the estimated number of fixations required to account for the genetic distance between humans and chimpanzees (360,000), it is extremely unlikely that natural selection alone could account for all those fixations. Therefore, the probability that 360,000 fixation events could have occurred solely through natural selection is extremely low, essentially approaching zero for any practical purposes.
Now, notice that despite arbitrarily reducing the size of the average fixation event to one percent of the observed 36,000,000 base pair differences between modern humans and modern chimpanzees on the basis of absolutely nothing, the AI still concluded that the probability that humans could have evolved from the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor as “essentially approaching zero for any practical purposes”. But the real probability is around one percent of approaching zero, as I asked it one further question.
What is the average size, in base pairs, of observed genetic fixation events?
It’s tricky to give a precise “average size” for genetic fixation events in base pairs because these events encompass a range of changes. For single base changes (the most common type of mutation), the average size of a fixation event is one base pair.
So, the next time someone asks you why you don’t “believe in evolution”, you can tell them that the current scientific evidence, analyzed by the latest technology, indicates that the mathematical probability of evolution is one percent of zero.
And with that, I think we’ve got the title of my next nonfiction book.