Simplicius summarizes the current stage of US-Russian pre-negotiations for NATO’s surrender in Ukraine.
The long-awaited plans we’ve theorized and brainstormed on since last year are finally resolving into view, where the West believes they can freeze the war Korean-DMZ style then insert their occupation KFOR troops to make sure Russia can never take Odessa, etc. As we said last time, they are even considering outlandishly absurd contortions to satisfy Putin’s demands, such as ‘stationing the bulk of the Ukrainian army somewhere in Europe’ in order to fulfill the “demilitarization” goals as per Putin’s Istanbul negotiations, which stated what Ukraine was allowed to have “on its territory”, technically speaking.
The problem is, Russia is in the driver’s seat and will not indulge such petty attempts to cozen and wheedle out a minor victory for Ukraine. As such, the only danger we can now expect is for the West to escalate in some brazen way should they finally realize Russia is not taking the bait. But we know neutered Europe has no political authority or consensus to act unilaterally, and at this point can only function like a pack of hyenas, if other major European states back each other’s ‘daring’ initiative…
The fact is though, the longer the Ukrainian conflict goes on, the closer the European Union comes to the verge of collapse. The conflict is outright killing Europe by exposing its bought-off treasonous leaders as the populace-hating cretins they are, causing mass discontent and political breakdown, spurring revolutionary new impulses which will soon bulge out the foundation’s cracks.
I suspect that Russia will have to destroy an American base in Europe or two with non-nuclear Oreshniks before President Trump utilizes the financial corruption and the misuse of US aid funds to provide him with political cover to cut off Ukraine and Europe alike. NATO will die of its own accord as soon as the US stops funding it, and the EU will be more focused on its own survival as a smaller supranational organization when Hungary and other member-nations start leaving it.
There isn’t going to be any US nuclear response to Russia no matter what Russia does in Europe, because no American has any interest in dying for the Europeans who can’t even bother to defend themselves. America has its own issues with its tens of millions of invaders, and is far more concerned about the global challenge posed by China than the return of historic norms in Europe. Which means that despite all the neocon bluster, Russia is ultimately free to act in its own interests; there is no economic incentive that the West can offer that Russia will be short-sighted enough to believe is either real or meaningful in the aftermath of the 13 rounds of economic sanctions and financial theft.
President Trump is under considerable pressure to figure out a way to rescue the Ukrainian rump state, but he’s more interested in the Middle East. So all of the various factors point to the USA abandoning Ukraine, the EU governments collapsing as they eventually follow suit, and Russia finally imposing its solution on whatever government succeeds the corrupt Zelensky regime in Ukraine.
Which, tragically, is the outcome that was inevitable nearly three years and one million Ukrainian lives ago.