So much for #NeverTrump. And so much for all the Nervous Nellies who have been repeatedly whining “what about the Trumpslide” despite the fact that I a) laid out the clear roadmap to it, b) explained how the trend leading towards it had been broken, and c) pointed out that it was still a possibility. Donald Trump is gaining again in the polls.
The full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.
Nothing is ever over until it is over. Yes, Pussygate broke the steady tread of momentum that had Trump on a clear path to a Trumpslide. But the fact that a clear and obvious path no longer exists does not mean that it is impossible, much less that Trump is going to lose.
Note that this is a 6-point turnaround from the day before. Rasmussen had Hillary +4 yesterday. Trump is +2 today. Can Trump continue to build on that? If he can, a Trumpslide is in the cards. The key thing is that he has apparently overcome the short-term damage Pussygate inflicted with low-IQ female and religious voters.
I have never wavered from my belief that Trump will win this election. And at this point, with 6-point daily swings, a Republican candidate openly attacking his own party’s establishment, and Hillary Clinton, the media, and the bifactional ruling party pulling out all the stops despite supposedly having the election in the bag, no one can possibly calculate what is going to happen with any degree of confidence.
Remember, all the polls and the betting markets had Brexit failing right up until the vote. “On election day, they priced about an 85% likelihood that Britain would stay in the EU.”
Sound familiar?
The probability of a victory by Mr Trump, who is known for his controversial trade and immigration policies, has fallen to 10 – 20 per cent, from 30 – 35 per cent over the past two weeks, the New York investment bank estimated, citing betting markets and poll aggregators.