You may recall that in response to dh’s citation of the state poll data pointing to an easy Hillary win this summer, I responded that it was too early to pay attention to the state polls, and that those polls only began to be relevant at least one month after the conventions. I also stated that if there was to be a Trumpslide, we would have to see the state polls start moving in Trump’s direction after that time.
What is interesting is that we are now seeing precisely the sort of movement that is necessary for a Trumpslide to take place, even before the first presidential debate. Consider the way in which the following states have changed in the last month according to the Reuters polls, and remember that Reuters already tweaked their methodology once to favor Clinton.
- Florida has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to marginal Trump.
- Pennsylvania has swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to “Too Close To Call.”
- Nevada has also swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
- South Carolina has swung 8 points toward Trump moving the state from “Too Close To Call” to solid Trump.
- Colorado has swung 6 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
- Iowa has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to solid Trump.
It is clear that Trump has all the momentum, even before the news of the new round of Muslim attacks in America have been taken into account. The national polls also reflect this degree of movement, as Clinton was +8 in the RCP average only five weeks ago, and will almost certainly be behind by the end of the week.
While it is far from certain that this Trumpward movement will continue at its current pace, if it does, Donald Trump will win in a landslide. I am not predicting a Trumpslide on that basis, for as you know, I already predicted one months ago. All I am pointing out is that the scenario for not only a Trump victory, but an overwhelming Trump victory, continues to remain a legitimate possibility on the basis of the current evidence.